18/7/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO down a little today -0.2%.

XJO has now had two negative days in a row, but no technical damage done so far.

Both days have seen some intra-day buying, which means the bulls haven't completely throw in the towel.

The trend remains bullish - stay with the trend until otherwise indicated.

Four sectors were up today.  The best was XHJ (Health) +0.93%.  That suggests we are seeing some switching out of cyclicals into defensives.  XHJ has been quite weak lately because of a poor report from CSL which fed through to the rest of the sector.  CSL was up 2.22% today.  Here's its chart:

Today's candle is a bullish engulfing candle on heavy volume - which suggests institutional activity.

Intra-day action was also interesting.  CSL was down -0.5% in early trading today until about 2.00 p.m. when it took off.  It finished today at 264.57.  According to The Motley Fool, UBS has a target of $340 for CSL,  That's a lot of space from the current price.

In evening trade, Europe is up modestly.  German DAX +0.17%.  French CAC +0.22%.  UK FTSE +0.25%.  Dow Jones Futures are flat +0.03%.

18/7/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. stocks finish on the up after starting on the downside.

 Dow Jones +0.22%.  SP500 +0.39%.  Nasdaq +0.93%.  Mid Caps +0.63%.  Small Caps +0.77%.  Banks +1.07%

 SP500.

SP500 has been above its 20-Day MA since late May.  CCI has been above its zero line for the same period of time.  While they stay in those positions, stay long.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.8%.  Energy -0.72%.  Basre Metals -1.07%.  Agriculture -0.69%.  Gold +0.07%.

Gold cannot get over its 50-Day MA.

ASX has opened on the weak side.  AT 10.15 it is down about -0.2%.  Resources are weak.  BHP down -1.26%.  Woodside -1.39%.  Banks are stronger, CBA +0.88%.

 
 

17/7/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO went to sleep today, down just -0.06%.

The current short-term up-trend remains bullish.

NH-NL Cumulative.

This chart is good at showing the major swings in the market.  While the chart remains above its 10-Day MA, stay long.  If the chart falls below its 10-Day MA, take profits.

Seven sectors were up today and four down.  The best performer was XIJ (Information Technology) up +0.88%.  The worst performers were XEJ (Energy) -0.81% and XMJ (Materials) -0.78%.  XXJ (Financials) up +0.42%.  For no reason I could see today, Medibank Private (MPL) exploded to the upside. +3.59%.  Endeavour (EDV) for obvious reasons (clamp on Pokies in Vic.) fell heavily, -9.9%.

16/7/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

 

    Bulls were victorious over Bears this week as the XJO rose more this week than in any time in the past year.  The bullish rally was stoked by an impressive (low) inflation report out of the U.S.  (Good news was good news.)  U.S. market started to tip over on Friday night, so we might be in line for a pull-back.

XJO Daily Chart.

On Friday, XJO poked above horizontal resistance and is into a low volume zone.  Any pull-back is likely to be bought as plenty of support now exists nearby.

 

The chart also finished above the Kumo Cloud which puts the XJO into bullish territory.  If a pull-back receives support at the top of the Kumo Cloud, that should spark another bullish rally. 

The Index finished up +3.71% for the week.

How is the American SP500 doing?

The Dow Jones has been much stronger than the Ozzie XJO.  spx is way above its the Kumo Cloud.  That in itself suggests we migh see a pull-back.  RSI for SPX is now sitting on 70.  That's overbought, so another reason for thinking we might see a pull-back.  SPX was down marginally on Friday night -1.0%.

SPX is in a low volume zone with plenty of nearby support.  Any pull-back is likely to be bought.

Sector Performance this past week.

This shows just how strong our market was this week.  The only weak link was XHJ (Health) down -0.37%

XMJ (Materials) was the best performing sector, up +6.73% followed by XPJ (Property) +5.17% and Energy +5.12%.  XGD (Gold Miners) which is an industry group within XMJ was up a massive +9.84%.

Defensive Sectors were the relative weakest, XHJ -0.37%, XSJ (Staples) +0.86%, and XUJ (Utilities) +1.9%.

52-Day Mansfield Relative Strength.

 

The best performing Sectors over the past 52 Days have been XIJ (Information Technology), XEJ (Energy), and XMJ (Materials).  Look to strong stocks in those sectors for trading options.

Adrenalin junkies might look to Gold Miners for trades - you must be competent in Technical Analysis to trade the Gold Mining stocks.  XGD is consistently an out-performer but can be very volatile - not for the faint hearted.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

NH-NL Cum peaked in early May and fell until the beginning of July.  It then moved above its 10-Day MA and gave a buy signal.  It had a bullish kick above its 10-Day MA this week and continues to be bullish.  This is a good long-term indicator for investors rather than traders.

%100 Leader Stocks above 200/50/10 Day Moving Averages.

% of Stocks above the 200-Day MA:  Last week 47%, this week 61%. 

% of Stocks above the 50-Day MA: Last week 26%, this week 67%. 

% of Stocks above the 10-Day MA: Last week 17%, this week 81%.  That's the best since mid-April this year.  Another reason for thinking that our market is overbought and ready for a pull-back to take some of the heat out of the market.

Conclusion.

 

This has been a very strong week for the XJO - so strong, we'll likely see a pull-back or consolidation.  That might provide an opportunity to buy into this rally if you've been sitting on the sidelines.

Good Luck.

That's all for this week - stay safe.

15/7/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Overnight in the U.S. - Mixed Results in Stocks.  Energy and Base Metals down.

Dow Jones +0.33%.  SP500 -0.1%.  Nasdaq -0.18%.  Mid Caps -0.94%.  Small Caps -0.88%.  Banks -2.35%.

The front line soldiers of the market, Mid Caps and Small Caps, were down heavily and both Indices show bearish engulfing candles.  Banks show a very big bearish engulfing candle.  That's not a good sign for the broad market.

Reporting season is kicking off in the U.S.  JP Morgan reported better than expected profits - but that didn't feed into the broad Banks Index.

SP500.

 SP500 remains in a bullish up-trend.  

Storm Clouds are beginning to gather.  RSI is at 70 which is overbought and the Index has now formed an upsloping bearish wedge.  If it breaks the lower support line of the wedge expect more downside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.67%.  Energy -1.74%.  Base Metals -0.9%.  Agriculture +1.12%.  Gold -0.22%.

Gold is finding resistance at the 50-Day MA.  A break above that would be bullish.

 Yesterday in Australia.

XJO was up strongly on Friday, +0.78%.  That's now four days in a row of very good rises.

Yesterday also broke above the recent high on 4 July.  If this is the start of a new up-trend, we need to see a higher low formed.  That is a good prospect ast plenty of support lies nearby.

14/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Oz Market should open on the high side this morning with ASX 200 Futures up +0.54%.

Overnight In the U.S.  Report Card on Indices was varied: From "Needs more effort"  to "Very Good".      

Dow Jones flat +0.14%.  SP500 +0.85%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Mid Cap +0.57%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks +1.33%.

SP500.

 

This rise looks too sharp and too far above the Kumo Cloud to be sustainable.  Prepare for a pull-back or, at least, a consolidation.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.41%.  Energy +1.11%.  Base Metals +2.06%.  Agriculture +0.66%.  Gold flat +0.07%.

 

13/7/23 Thursday Evening Finspiration Report

 ASX rises for third straight day.  Up +1.56%.

The traditional definition of a down-trend is lower highs and lower lows.  By that definition, XJO remains in a down-trend.  But we haven't yet seen a down-turn on the latest leg up, so we can't definitively say that Point3 is the top of this leg.  It can still go higher - so the jury remains out on this criterion.

By other definitions it is now in an short-term up-trend - or at least a counter-trend rally.

Using Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's, XJO is now in a counter-trend upside rally.

Monthly RSI:  53.42

Weekly RSI:  52.39

Daily RSI:  54.99

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

 NH-NL Cum has had a bullish kick to the upside off the 10-Day MA.  

 I'll go back to my initial hunch on Tuesday that the move up on Tuesday had such force as to indicate the end of the bearish sentiment.  The follow-through on Wed. and Thur. confirms that.

If we look at the XJO chart above, the action on Tuesday at PointC was different in kind from the sort of action we saw at PointA and PointB.

Now we could get a pull-back here after three very strong days.  But if we then get a rise above Point3 and don't break below PointC - we will have a new bullish rally - even by the traditional definition.

I'm sticking with that scenario unless we see a pull-back here and a break below Point C.

Best performing Sector today was again Property, up +3.18% today, followed by Info.Tech +2.27% and Discretionary +2.22%.  Those are all sectors sensitive to interest rates.  They are giving a nod to at least a pause in interest rate rises and probably a fall.  Good news.

Materials was also up more than +2% today.

Every Sector was up today, with the worst being  Health Care +0.86%, Communication Services +0.75% and Utilities +0.66%.  Health and Utilities are quintessential defensive sectors, so we are see a switch out of defensives into growth and cyclical sectors.