14/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Oz Market should open on the high side this morning with ASX 200 Futures up +0.54%.

Overnight In the U.S.  Report Card on Indices was varied: From "Needs more effort"  to "Very Good".      

Dow Jones flat +0.14%.  SP500 +0.85%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Mid Cap +0.57%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks +1.33%.

SP500.

 

This rise looks too sharp and too far above the Kumo Cloud to be sustainable.  Prepare for a pull-back or, at least, a consolidation.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.41%.  Energy +1.11%.  Base Metals +2.06%.  Agriculture +0.66%.  Gold flat +0.07%.

 

24/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Friday - felt like Armageddon.  XJO down,  Dow down, Nasdaq down, Europe down, Commodities down.

Armageddon - that is - if you're a normal person - but those dark villains on the "short" side (and I'm not talking about Friends of Snow White or Santa's Little Helpers) were chugging Dom Perignon out of crystal slippers previously worn by Princess Beatrice, who is by now sleeping rough in Piccadilly Circus.

XJO down -1.34%.

That takes the XJO down to just below the 200-Day MA - where it's been a couple of times recently - and then recovered.  

Well - anything is possible in this crazy stock market world, but this looks very different from those two previous efforts of flirting with the 200-Day MA.  

In the U.S. last night:

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.77%.  Nasdaq -1.01%.  Mid Caps -1.16%.  Small Caps -1.65%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is nowhere near as dire as the XJO.  It is way above the 200-Day MA.

As I've noted in the past, XJO decoupled from the American market a long time ago - that's due to the out-sized influence of Technology on the U.S. market - whereas, the Australian Tech sector has a small impact on our market.  The Oz market is more influenced by the resources sector which depend on China and Japan for markets.

Still, SP500 is showing weekness.  The three indicators in the lower panels are all on sell signals.

Two out of three super-trend lines have turned bearish.  But, the SP500 is back to the mid-line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, which suggests it might find support at that level.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -0.26%.  Base Metals -1.96%.  Agriculture -1.91%.  Gold +0.28%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for our resources sectors.

In Sydney, SFE Futures for ASX200 is down -0.23%, which suggests a weak opening on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 13/5/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report.

Australia was flat on Friday, in the U.S. major indices down a little.

XJO

XJO was up just +0.07% on Friday - the fourth day of little movement in the indices.

The Supertrend Lines (two yellow and one blue) indicate a non-trending market.

Daunt DZ Stochastic is bullish, but Daily RSI remains below its 20-Day MA.  Again this is typical of a non-trending market.

A move in the Supertrends to all yellow and a move by the RSI above its 20-Day MA would be bullish.

Time to be patient.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 -0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.35%.  Mid Caps -0.02%.  Small Caps -0.29%.  Banks -0.79%.

Not much happening in the U.S. where the regional banks are still cause for some concern.

SP500.

The SP500, like the XJO, shows a non-trending market.

Wait.

Commodities.

The Commodities don't hold much joy for Australian stocks, although Base Metals seems to be stabilising after Thursday's big drop.

Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.6%.  Base Metals +0.66%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.17%.

It looks like more of nothing much for our market on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.

Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

SP500.

Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 29/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Australia.

Yesterday, ASX up modestly.

Overnight in the U.S.  Another strong period for stocks.

XJO.

On Friday, XJO started well after a strong session on Wall Street but faded just before noon.  The afternoon session saw a little strength, but not enough to push the index back above the 8-Day EMA.

Indicators remain on sell signals.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.8%,  SP500 +0.83%.  Nasdaq +0.69%.  Mid Caps +0.93%.  Small Caps +1%.  Banks 1.49%

Nasdaq was up +1.89% for the week which had big tech companies reporting.  SP500 up +0.87%.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  XJO was down -0.29% for the week.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish after a strong day on Thursday.  

Indicators are showing negative divergences which may dissipate if further upside is seen.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.92%.  Base Metals +0.31%.  Agriculture -0.14%.  Golds flat +0.03%

Finspiration Australia.

 27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

SP500.

Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

BHP and Rio both up overnight.

Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.

Finspiration Australia

26/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks finish well down.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.59%.  Nasdaq -1.96%.  Mid Caps -1.93%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Banks -3.45%.

SP500.

Three doji candlesticks followed by a big down candle?  Indecision resolved.

All indicators are now bearish.  Wait for the down-trend to finish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.42%.  Energy -2.82%.  Base Metals -2.42%. Agriculture +0.33%.  Gold +0.61%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.49%.  Big miners are taking the brunt of the bearish conditions.

In after market news in the U.S., Microsoft and Alphabet reported.  Both beat expectations.  That should flow on to the Oz market today, although - probably not enough to turn it positive.

Finspiration Australia

 25/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO down marginally.

Overnight in the U.S., muted market with mixed results.

XJO Chart.

XJO has now triggered many short-term "sell" signals.  

• Hull MA13 has switched from up to down.  (Dashed line on the chart.)
• RSI has fallen below the mid-line (20-Day MA) of its Bollinger Bands.
• DZ Stochastic has its bands squeezed together and the Stock line has fallen to the downside.
• Short-term line of Double MACD has fallen below its long-term line.
• CCI has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.
• Chart has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.

Triple Supertrend lines still haven't switched from yellow to blue - that's a more of a medium-term signal.

U.S. Indices overnight.

Dow Jones +0.2%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.29%.  Mid Caps +0.02%.  Small Caps -0.01%.  Banks -0.41%.

SP500.

Sp500 is showing similar short-term sell signals to the Australian XJO.  Triple Supertrends continue to show bullish - this is more of a medium-term indicator.

SP500 is showing three doji candle-sticks in a row - indecision.  America is in the midst of Earnings Season - later this week some of the biggest Tech Companies report, e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

The American market is in indecision mode waiting on those ginormous companies to report.

Other big U.S. companies reporting this week are:  Visa, Pepsi, McDonald's, Boeing, Intel, Mastercard, Exxon, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive.  So it's a big week for reporting in the U.S. this week.  This will have an effect on the direction of the market.

Next week, the Federal Reserve reports on its interest rate decision.  That's another overhang on the market.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.8%.  Energy +1.6%.  Base Metals -0.72%.  Agriculture +0.57%.  Gold +0.37%.

The Australian Market is closed for Anzac Day today.

Finspiration Australia.

22/4/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Yesterday in Australia, XJO fell moderately.

Overnight in the U.S., stock market was flat.

XJO down -0.43% and showing the first definite signs of bearishness.  Hull MA13 (dotted line) has turned down and the chart finished below the 8-Day EMA.

Yesterday's dark candle, after two dojos, is a bearish signal.

DZ Stochastic closed below its upper Zone line.  That needs to be confirmed by a close by the RSI below its median line (20-Day MA) and short-term MACD (yellow) closing below longer term MACD (blue).

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.07%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq +0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.06%.  Small Caps -0.32%.  Banks -1.5%.

SP500.

SP500 has had two doji candlesticks in a row.  It remains just a tick above the 8-Day EMA and the past two days have bounced of the first of the triple Superintends.

RSI remains a tick above its median line (20-Day MA).  A drop below the 20-Day MA is bearish.

DZ Stochastic is bearish and short-term MACD is below long-term MACD.

Lots of indecision with two dojis and mixed indicator signals.  Wait.

Commodities.  Energy up, Base Metals down.

Commodities Index -0.21%.  Energy +0.83%.  Base Metals -1.16%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold -0.99%.

With U.S. Banks and Base Metals down overnight, that looks dangerous for Australia on Monday.

Overnight in the U.S., our big miners were down.  BHP -3.23%, Rio -4.04%.  That re-inforces the notion that XJO will be down on Monday.

 

Finspiration Australia

 20/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Little change in the U.S. again last night.

Dow Jones -0.23%.  SP500 -0.01%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Mid Caps +0.18%.  Small Caps +0.31%.  Banks +1.6%.

SP500.

SP500 remains above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend (10/1).

DZ Stochastic and Double MACD have given marginal sell signals, but not confirmed by RSI.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.39%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.89%.  Gold -0.48%.

Yesterday in Australia we had a flat day with Miners up and Banks down.  Today it seems we'll have another flat day but relative strength reversed, Banks up and Miners down.

Finspirtion Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight:  US finishes with little change.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

SP500.

SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

Continue to watch for a downside break.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.

Finspiration Australia.

15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.

XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

SP500.

Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

(I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)

Finspiration Australia.

 11/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq flat -0.03%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +0.82%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  The medium term trend remains up.  

The past two days show intra-day buying.

Stay with the up-trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy flat +0.09%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.74%.

Although Base Metals finished to the down-side, there was a lot of intra-day buying which augurs well for our miners today.

Bitcoin.

BTC has a big rise last night, up +4.64% and has broken upwards from its long side-ways consolidation.

The crypto remains in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.