Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Evening Report Finspiration Australia 

ASX down heavily today.

XJO down today -0.96% with a little hopeful bottom picking late in the day.

We've had any number of short and medium term sell signals all marked with arrows.

The trend is currently bearish.

After two big downside days we could get a bounce but it would take a very optimistic Federal Reserve decision tonight to pull this out of its blue funk.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.

Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

SP500.

Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 2/5/23.  RBA raises interest rates (unexpectedly) and says more to come.  ASX drops sharply.  XJO down -0.9%.

Here's today's chart of the XJO.

XJO has now failed at horizontal resistance, and is short-term bearish.  It remains above the Kumo Cloud where it may find support.

I don't say that with a lot of confidence.

Consider the following chart of Historical Volatility:

We can see that Historical Volatility is at a low level, even a bit lower than the past two times.  It has now turned up.  

I could have loaded up a much longer time frame which has more examples of such low levels, but this will do for the purposes of illustration.

Below is a Weekly Chart of the XJO with times pinpointed when HV was at such low levels the past two times.

HV turning up from a low level has been fairly good at predicting further declines.

Tonight (Oz Time) the Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting.  They will hand down their interest rate decision on Thursday night (Oz time).

Currently, European stocks are leading to the down-side, Euro STOXX600 down -0.36%.  Dow Futures are down -0.19%.

Finspiration Australia.

 27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

SP500.

Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

BHP and Rio both up overnight.

Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.

Finspiration Australia.

 26/4/23.  Cryptos report.

Major Cryptos maintain bearish conditions - but close to changing.

BTCUSD.

Good night for BTC, up +2.86%.  It bounced off the 50-Day MA.  

DZ Stochastic has given a marginal buy signal and it finished marginally above the 8-Day EMA.

I'd like to see the RSI finish above the 20-Day MA and at least one Supertrend trigger a yellow line (bullish).

ADA

ADA up +2.84%.  A strong result but no buy signals triggered.  Wait.

MATIC.

MATIC down -1%.  The day's candle is a wide-range doji candle.  Coming at the low end of a down-trend, that may signal an end of the down trend.  But no buy signals triggered.  Wait.

 

Finspiration Australia

26/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks finish well down.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.59%.  Nasdaq -1.96%.  Mid Caps -1.93%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Banks -3.45%.

SP500.

Three doji candlesticks followed by a big down candle?  Indecision resolved.

All indicators are now bearish.  Wait for the down-trend to finish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.42%.  Energy -2.82%.  Base Metals -2.42%. Agriculture +0.33%.  Gold +0.61%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.49%.  Big miners are taking the brunt of the bearish conditions.

In after market news in the U.S., Microsoft and Alphabet reported.  Both beat expectations.  That should flow on to the Oz market today, although - probably not enough to turn it positive.

Finspiration Australia

 25/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO down marginally.

Overnight in the U.S., muted market with mixed results.

XJO Chart.

XJO has now triggered many short-term "sell" signals.  

• Hull MA13 has switched from up to down.  (Dashed line on the chart.)
• RSI has fallen below the mid-line (20-Day MA) of its Bollinger Bands.
• DZ Stochastic has its bands squeezed together and the Stock line has fallen to the downside.
• Short-term line of Double MACD has fallen below its long-term line.
• CCI has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.
• Chart has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.

Triple Supertrend lines still haven't switched from yellow to blue - that's a more of a medium-term signal.

U.S. Indices overnight.

Dow Jones +0.2%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.29%.  Mid Caps +0.02%.  Small Caps -0.01%.  Banks -0.41%.

SP500.

Sp500 is showing similar short-term sell signals to the Australian XJO.  Triple Supertrends continue to show bullish - this is more of a medium-term indicator.

SP500 is showing three doji candle-sticks in a row - indecision.  America is in the midst of Earnings Season - later this week some of the biggest Tech Companies report, e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

The American market is in indecision mode waiting on those ginormous companies to report.

Other big U.S. companies reporting this week are:  Visa, Pepsi, McDonald's, Boeing, Intel, Mastercard, Exxon, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive.  So it's a big week for reporting in the U.S. this week.  This will have an effect on the direction of the market.

Next week, the Federal Reserve reports on its interest rate decision.  That's another overhang on the market.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.8%.  Energy +1.6%.  Base Metals -0.72%.  Agriculture +0.57%.  Gold +0.37%.

The Australian Market is closed for Anzac Day today.

Finspiration Australia.

22/4/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Yesterday in Australia, XJO fell moderately.

Overnight in the U.S., stock market was flat.

XJO down -0.43% and showing the first definite signs of bearishness.  Hull MA13 (dotted line) has turned down and the chart finished below the 8-Day EMA.

Yesterday's dark candle, after two dojos, is a bearish signal.

DZ Stochastic closed below its upper Zone line.  That needs to be confirmed by a close by the RSI below its median line (20-Day MA) and short-term MACD (yellow) closing below longer term MACD (blue).

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.07%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq +0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.06%.  Small Caps -0.32%.  Banks -1.5%.

SP500.

SP500 has had two doji candlesticks in a row.  It remains just a tick above the 8-Day EMA and the past two days have bounced of the first of the triple Superintends.

RSI remains a tick above its median line (20-Day MA).  A drop below the 20-Day MA is bearish.

DZ Stochastic is bearish and short-term MACD is below long-term MACD.

Lots of indecision with two dojis and mixed indicator signals.  Wait.

Commodities.  Energy up, Base Metals down.

Commodities Index -0.21%.  Energy +0.83%.  Base Metals -1.16%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold -0.99%.

With U.S. Banks and Base Metals down overnight, that looks dangerous for Australia on Monday.

Overnight in the U.S., our big miners were down.  BHP -3.23%, Rio -4.04%.  That re-inforces the notion that XJO will be down on Monday.

 

Finspiration Australia.

 20/4/23.  Thursday Morning, Bitcoin Finspiration Report.

Bitcoin fell further last night - confirming bearish "sell" signals.  BTCUSD down -5.17%

Two out of three Supertrend lines have now turned blue (bearish).  One more - and it is a slam dunk.

All three indicators in the lower panels are showing "sell" signals.

Important horizontal support/resistance lies at 28473.  BTCUSD finished at 28824

Finspirtion Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight:  US finishes with little change.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

SP500.

SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

Continue to watch for a downside break.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.

Finspiration Australia

 18/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Modest gains in the U.S. overnight.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.33%.  Nasdaq +0.28%.  Mid Caps +0.76%.  Small Caps +0.59%.  Banks +1.4%.

SP500.

The up-trend in the SP500 remains bullish.

DZ Stochastic continues to flirt with its "sell" line - last night it lifted just above the upper line of its Dynamic Zones.  RSI remains clear of its "sell" line - the 20-Day MA.  Both must confirm

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.41%.  Energy -1%.  Base Metals -0.55%.  Agriculture +1.39%.  Gold -0.45%.

ASX Futures down -0.2% - that suggests the Oz market will have a weak opening.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down heavily overnight, -2.88%.

Lots of bearish signals:

• Three doji candlesticks in a row (lots of indecision) followed by a big bearish candle (indecision eradicated).  
• Last night also fell below a major support/resistance line set back in May 2022.
• The first Supertrend line has turned bearish.
• Last night's candle fell below the 8-Day EMA.
• RSI has fallen below its mid-line (20-Day MA).  That's a sell signal.
• Dynamic Zone Stochastic has confirmed the RSI sell signal by falling below the upper line of the Dynamic Zones.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.

XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

SP500.

Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

(I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)

Finspiration Australia.

 13/4/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

Australian market was down modestly today.  XJO -0.27%.

Yesterday, XJO hit horizontal resistance and today retreated a little.  Today's candle is an "inside day", suggesting indecision.  Tomorrow's action could decide which way the market goes for the next few days.

Stochastic is showing a negative divergence from the chart, which suggests the next move will be to the downside.e

Only three sectors were up today, Energy +0.9%, Info.Tech. +1% and Property +0.4%.

The worst today, surprisingly, was Staples -1.2%.  That sector was in the overbought zone of the RSI so there might be some profit taking occurring in Staples.  Today's candle was a big bearish engulfing candle which suggests more downside in Staple.