24/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Friday - felt like Armageddon.  XJO down,  Dow down, Nasdaq down, Europe down, Commodities down.

Armageddon - that is - if you're a normal person - but those dark villains on the "short" side (and I'm not talking about Friends of Snow White or Santa's Little Helpers) were chugging Dom Perignon out of crystal slippers previously worn by Princess Beatrice, who is by now sleeping rough in Piccadilly Circus.

XJO down -1.34%.

That takes the XJO down to just below the 200-Day MA - where it's been a couple of times recently - and then recovered.  

Well - anything is possible in this crazy stock market world, but this looks very different from those two previous efforts of flirting with the 200-Day MA.  

In the U.S. last night:

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.77%.  Nasdaq -1.01%.  Mid Caps -1.16%.  Small Caps -1.65%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is nowhere near as dire as the XJO.  It is way above the 200-Day MA.

As I've noted in the past, XJO decoupled from the American market a long time ago - that's due to the out-sized influence of Technology on the U.S. market - whereas, the Australian Tech sector has a small impact on our market.  The Oz market is more influenced by the resources sector which depend on China and Japan for markets.

Still, SP500 is showing weekness.  The three indicators in the lower panels are all on sell signals.

Two out of three super-trend lines have turned bearish.  But, the SP500 is back to the mid-line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, which suggests it might find support at that level.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -0.26%.  Base Metals -1.96%.  Agriculture -1.91%.  Gold +0.28%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for our resources sectors.

In Sydney, SFE Futures for ASX200 is down -0.23%, which suggests a weak opening on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 29/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Australia.

Yesterday, ASX up modestly.

Overnight in the U.S.  Another strong period for stocks.

XJO.

On Friday, XJO started well after a strong session on Wall Street but faded just before noon.  The afternoon session saw a little strength, but not enough to push the index back above the 8-Day EMA.

Indicators remain on sell signals.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.8%,  SP500 +0.83%.  Nasdaq +0.69%.  Mid Caps +0.93%.  Small Caps +1%.  Banks 1.49%

Nasdaq was up +1.89% for the week which had big tech companies reporting.  SP500 up +0.87%.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  XJO was down -0.29% for the week.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish after a strong day on Thursday.  

Indicators are showing negative divergences which may dissipate if further upside is seen.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.92%.  Base Metals +0.31%.  Agriculture -0.14%.  Golds flat +0.03%

Finspiration Australia

 18/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Modest gains in the U.S. overnight.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.33%.  Nasdaq +0.28%.  Mid Caps +0.76%.  Small Caps +0.59%.  Banks +1.4%.

SP500.

The up-trend in the SP500 remains bullish.

DZ Stochastic continues to flirt with its "sell" line - last night it lifted just above the upper line of its Dynamic Zones.  RSI remains clear of its "sell" line - the 20-Day MA.  Both must confirm

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.41%.  Energy -1%.  Base Metals -0.55%.  Agriculture +1.39%.  Gold -0.45%.

ASX Futures down -0.2% - that suggests the Oz market will have a weak opening.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down heavily overnight, -2.88%.

Lots of bearish signals:

• Three doji candlesticks in a row (lots of indecision) followed by a big bearish candle (indecision eradicated).  
• Last night also fell below a major support/resistance line set back in May 2022.
• The first Supertrend line has turned bearish.
• Last night's candle fell below the 8-Day EMA.
• RSI has fallen below its mid-line (20-Day MA).  That's a sell signal.
• Dynamic Zone Stochastic has confirmed the RSI sell signal by falling below the upper line of the Dynamic Zones.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 8/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Powell's comments sink U.S. Stocks.  Commodities down

Dow Jones -1.72%.  SP500 -1.53%.  Nasdaq -1.25%.  Small Caps  -1.0%.  Banks -3.87%.

SP500.

Selling was consistent throughout the session.  The three-day candle stick pattern is bearish after failing at the 20-Day MA.  

Last night's session broke below the 8-Day EMA and the 50-Day MA.

Support remains with the Supertrend.  Tonight's action looks crucial.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.05%.  Energy -2.8%.  Base Metals -2.46%.  Agriculture -0.15%.  Gold -1.75%.

After one hour of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.9%.  

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -1.59%.  It remains below the 50-Day MA and 8Day EMA.  Possible support zone is shown by the shaded rectangle.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 13/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks continue to run higher for fourth day.

Dow Jones +0.71%.  SP500 +1.05%.  Nasdaq +1.27%.  Small Caps +1.28%.  Banks +0.83%.

European stocks also rose strongly, with European STOXX 600 up +1.8%.

SP500.

Short-term, SP500 continues to be bullish, but now facing some resistance from a congestion zone to its left and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  Expect some consolidation here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.38%.  Energy +1.47%.  Base Metals +1.05%.  Agriculture +0.69%.  Gold +0.51%.

Iron Ore -0.6%.  Thermal Coal +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.7%.  

Expect another solid day for the ASX today on the back of higher overseas stocks and commodities.

BITCOIN.

Since early June, 2022, Bitcoin has been in a long sideways consolidation within a longer down trend.

It remains below the Kumo Cloud and well below its 200-Day MA.  Until resistance of those two indicators, it is best to consider any rally to be a counter-trend rally in an ongoing bear market.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

23/7/22.  Yesterday in Australia.

XJO chart shows a doji candlestick which indicates indecision.  The index finished flat -0.04%.  That comes at a major horizontal resistance level, so the next move may be to the downside.

The market is in a short-term up-trend but a long-term down-trend.  So we can count the current rally as a counter-trend rally.

Stochastic is overbought.  It can remain overbought for lengthy periods of time, but in a bear market the period of time is usually brief.  Watch for a break below 80 for an end to this rally.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.43%.  SP500 -0.93%.  Nasdaq -1.87%.  Small Caps -0.94%.  Banks -1.52%.

Earnings season produced some big falls yesterday, particularly among social media stocks.  META (Facebook) was down -7%.  Pinterest -13%, SNAP -39% and Alphabet -5%.

Eight out of eleven sectors were down.  The only positive sectors were Consumer Staples +0.66%, Utilities +1.37% and Real Estate +0.76%.  Real Estate got a boost from lower bond yields.  They usually also provide a boost to Technology, but that was weighed down by poor earnings.

SP500.

SP500 is now into the Kumo Cloud - that's a "no trade" zone, so we might see a more turbulent market here.  A break back below the Cloud would be a bearish event.

The Cloud is quite wide here, which means resistance is strong.  The most likely movement, medium term, is back to the downside.  But the market will remain captive to earnings reports.

Commodities.

Mixed results in Commodities.  Commodities Index -1.19%.  Energy -0.81%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -1.53%.  Gold +0.25%.

The lower bond yields in America and good metals prices might help the XJO to some extent on Monday, but I'm not expecting a positive day.

 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 18/6/22.  Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, the ASX200 (XJO) was down -1.8%.

Below is the chart for STW - ETF for the ASX200.  I've chosen the STW chart today rather than the XJO chart because STW chart is somewhat more realistic in showing the market than the XJO.  XJO always starts where the previous day leaves off - so it is always continuous.  STW opens either up or down from the previous day's close.  Those gaps are often small, or, as in recent days quite large.  It also allows us to see more clearly the intra-day action in the market.

Friday's candle shows an opening gap down of >2%.  It then fell more (long lower wick) then recovered somewhat to finish above its opening quote.  So we did see some intra-day buying, which didn't occur on Thursday when the candle was basically all blue, i.e., it fell from its opening quote and didn't recover.

I've also shown on this chart the clear Head/n/Shoulders pattern which formed from late February into early June, with the Head forming in early April.

The fall from the Head to the  Base Line is >8%.  The fall from the Base Line to the low of yesterday's candle is ~7%.  So, if the Standard Measure Rule (SMR) is followed, STW still has about -1% to fall before we get a rebound.  SMR is never 100% accurate, but provides a guide to investors watching for a Point of Interest, give or take a bit, where a rebound might occur.

Are we there yet?  Maybe, start looking for a rebound now.  Any rebound will, however, probably be a counter-trend rally while Central Banks around the world continue to turn the interest rate screws to counter inflation.

Overnight.

Dow Jones flat -0.13%.  SP500 +0.22%.  Nasdaq +1.43%.  Small Caps +0.7%.  Banks +0.88%.

Yesterday in America was Options Expiry Day, which leads to much higher volumes.

SP500.

SP500 is now down -24.5% since its high in early January.

The Options Expiry Week shows a statistical bias to the positive side.  It certainly didn't happen this week with the SP500 down -6%.  Bear Markets ruin every edge that statistics provide to the trader.

Here's a weekly chart for SP500:

This chart provides clues to a possible "bottom" in this bear market.  

The 50% retracement level is shown from the bear market low of March 2020 to the high of the rally in early January 2022.  That level is at 3502.6.  SP500 finished Friday at 3666.8

The 50% retracement level more or less coincides with the 200-Week Moving Average and horizontal support/resistance from August-November 2020.

So, we have triple alliances occurring around the 50% retracement level.  That's powerful stuff.

I've also calculated a turn date (using Gann measure principles) of 26 June, give or take a couple of days.  Another week of down time would bring the SP500 down to about that triple alliance.

Look for a rebound around that level, i.e., in round numbers 3500. 

Good luck.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 9/6/22.  Overnight.  

Dow Jones -0.81%.  SP500 -1.09%.  Nasdaq -0.73%.  Small Caps -1.69%.  Banks -1.72%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in its sideways consolidation, now into its eighth day.  No way of knowing which way this will break, but the most likely direction is up.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.89%.  Energy +1.27%.  Base Metals +0.39%.  Agriculture +0.32%.  Gold -0.09%.

The up-trend in Energy is getting a bit long in the tooth.  A negative divergence is beginning to show up on the CCI, so this up-trend is probably entering its final stages.

Iron Ore +0.1%.  Thermal Coal -0.4%.

Overnight Oz Futures -0.7%.  That seems like we'll see a resumption of the down-trend from Tuesday.

Finspiration Australia. Objective technical analysis of the Australian and International Stock Markets.

15/4/22.  Overnight.

 Dow Jones -0.33%.  SP500 -1.21%.  Nasdaq -2.14%.  Small Caps -0.68%.  Banks -1.36%.

Positive divergence on the Banks CCI suggests we'll see a counter-trend rally in that index in the near future.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a short-term down-trend, consolidating at the lower end of that trend beginning in early March.  That's almost long enough to call it a medium-term down-trend.

SPX continues to oscillate around the 50-Day MA and remains in the Ichimoku Cloud.  That's the no trading zone.  Wait.

Commodities.

Energy +1.75% continues to push higher under the influence of the Ukraine-Russia War.  That's pushing up the Commodities Index +0.75%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Gold -0.33%.

NY Advances-Declines Line.

NYAD gives no indication of turning bullish.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia. U.S. stocks down, safe havens up. Sat. 5/4/22

 Yesterday in Australia.

Yesterday, XJO was down -0.57%.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.53%.  SP500 -0.79%.  Nasdaq -1.66%.  Small Caps -1.36%.  Banks -3.41%.

Huge falls overnight in Europe with the STOXX600 down -3.56%.

SP500.

Short-term, SP500 remains in non-trending, consolidation mode.  Longer term, SP500 remains bearish.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +4.21%.  Energy +6.73%.  Base Metals +2.2%.  Gold +1.5%.

The current exponential rise in Energy and Base Metals is unsustainable.  Where it will end is unknown, but it will end badly.

Safe Havens:  Bonds and Gold.

20-Year Treasuries (TLT) up strongly +1.73%, but it appears to be in a short-term counter-trend rally.  Overall it appears to be bearish - probably because of the threat of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

Gold  is in a strong up-trend +1.59%, and shows no signs yet of reversing to the downside.

While the Ukraine situation dictates uncertainty in the markets, Bonds and Gold will probably continue higher.

NY Advances-Declines Cumulative.

New York NH-NL Cumulative peaked in early November.  The negative divergence from the SP500 Nov.-Jan. predicted the decline in the New York market.  Until this indicator returns to an up-trend, it's best to stay defensive.

Finspiration Australia. U.S. markets finish flat.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.16%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps +0.26%.  Banks +0.25%.

Major indices were well down for most of the trading session.  A last hour rush to the upside erased most of the earlier losses.

SP500.

Last night's action was better than a big down day, but did little to change the technical picture.  SP500 is stuck around major moving averages (20/200 DMAs) and well below the 50-DMA and the Ichimoku Cloud.  Until it can clear those, this remains a "sell the rallies" scenario.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.13%.  Energy -0.51%.  Base Metals +0.72%.  Gold +1.03%.

Iron Ore up +3%.

Overnight Oz Futures were up just three points which equates to no movement 0.00%.

In the U.S. last night, BHP up +1.79% and Rio up +1.85% despite both falling yesterday in Australia.  So the big miners might do well today in Australia.

Stock Market Analysis.

 Sat. 11/12/21.  SP500 hits new record.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.6%.  SP500 +0.95%.  Nasdaq +0.73%. Small Caps +0.02%.  Banks -0.2%

SP500:

SP500 reversed the bearish candle set on Thursday, broke above resistance and set a new closing record.  That's a bullish event.  Expect more upside.

Commodities:

Commodity Index +1.14%.  Energy +1.95%.  Base Metals -0.52%.  Gold +0.42%.

VIX.

VIX finished at 18.69.  Traditionally, 20 is considered the marker between bullish and bearish for the stock market.  VIX is now giving a bullish signal confirming the signal from the SP500.

BHP was up in the US, but down in little in the UK.  RIO had similar results to BHP, up in the US, down in UK.  Both stocks remain in up-trends.  Westpac and Woodside were both up in the U.S.

Our market should see a bounce off the 50-Day MA on Monday.

 Tues. a.m. 7/12/21.  U.S. indices advance strongly.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +1.87%.  SP500 +1.17%.  Nasdaq +0.93%.  Small Caps +2.41%.  Banks +1.93%.

Four out of five of the above indices have given buy signals with Stochastic rising above 20.  The only index not giving a buy signal is Nasdaq, and that appears to be imminent.

SP500.

The short-term trend remains bearish despite today's good number.  Stochastic (not shown on this chart) has given a short-term buy signal so the situation is ambiguous.

Last night, SP500 bounced strongly off the 50-Day MA and above horizontal support.  That's also bullish.

Aggressive traders will go long, more cautious traders will wait for further confirmation.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.74%.  Energy +3.8%.  Base Metals +0.29%.  Gold -0.25%.

Iron Ore +1.9%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.4%.

Oz market should be stronger today.

Reserve Bank interest rate decision to be handed down later today.