Finspiration Australia.

 13/5/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report.

Australia was flat on Friday, in the U.S. major indices down a little.

XJO

XJO was up just +0.07% on Friday - the fourth day of little movement in the indices.

The Supertrend Lines (two yellow and one blue) indicate a non-trending market.

Daunt DZ Stochastic is bullish, but Daily RSI remains below its 20-Day MA.  Again this is typical of a non-trending market.

A move in the Supertrends to all yellow and a move by the RSI above its 20-Day MA would be bullish.

Time to be patient.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 -0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.35%.  Mid Caps -0.02%.  Small Caps -0.29%.  Banks -0.79%.

Not much happening in the U.S. where the regional banks are still cause for some concern.

SP500.

The SP500, like the XJO, shows a non-trending market.

Wait.

Commodities.

The Commodities don't hold much joy for Australian stocks, although Base Metals seems to be stabilising after Thursday's big drop.

Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.6%.  Base Metals +0.66%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.17%.

It looks like more of nothing much for our market on Monday.

Finspiration Australia

26/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks finish well down.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.59%.  Nasdaq -1.96%.  Mid Caps -1.93%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Banks -3.45%.

SP500.

Three doji candlesticks followed by a big down candle?  Indecision resolved.

All indicators are now bearish.  Wait for the down-trend to finish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.42%.  Energy -2.82%.  Base Metals -2.42%. Agriculture +0.33%.  Gold +0.61%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.49%.  Big miners are taking the brunt of the bearish conditions.

In after market news in the U.S., Microsoft and Alphabet reported.  Both beat expectations.  That should flow on to the Oz market today, although - probably not enough to turn it positive.

     9/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had only one week so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +0.57% and remains within the range of the month of March.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

PPO is above 0 - that suggests a bullish trend.  It's been that way since Dec. 2020.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down - indecisive.

Schaff Trend Cycle is just below its "buy" line.  It wouldn't take much to turn that bullish.

This is only at the beginning of the month, so no decisions made on this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in a counter-trend rally against the big fall from early February to late March.  We need to see all three Supertrend Lines to turn yellow to presume that we have a new upside trend.  

DZ Stochastic has turned up but hasn't crossed above its "buy" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle remains under  its "do not buy" line.

PPO is marginally above its zero line.  We need to see it turn up from there to be confident of a new bullish trend.  

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +0.57% this week.

XJO was up eight days in a row until the negative day on Thursday. That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it appears to be faltering with three narrow-range doji candlesticks in a row.  That's occurring at a support-resistance line at 7226.  XJO finished the week at 7219 - marginally below horizontal resistance.

That Horizontal Resistance Line also coincides with the 50% retracement of the fall from early Feb. to late March.  Reversal of trends often occur at the 50% level.

DZ Stochastic has turned down but remains above its "sell" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle also remains above its "sell" line.  PPO is marginally above its zero line.

All that suggests that the coming week could be crucial to the future of the XJO.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

XMJ (Materials) was the dog in the major this week.  (Not quite an appropriate metaphor in the Easter Week).

XMJ was the only negative sector - down -2,72%,

Defensive Sectors were fairly strong this week:  XHJ +3.83%, XSJ +1.78%, XUJ + 1.78%, XTJ +1.68%.  

That suggests we've seen a rotation into defense against the usually strong XMJ.  It should be kept in mind that XMJ was up +7.01% in the previous week.  So it's not surprising that it had a fall this week.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

Some sectors were affected this week, XHJ moved into the bullish section.  Materials moved from "bullish counter trend rally" to "bearish".  Again - this emphasises the shift into defense from offence.

Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are bullish - both of those tend to be safe havens.

XJO remains in a "counter trend rally"

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  This week it moved back above its 10-Day MA.   That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The recent strong 8-Day bullish rally took the Stocks/Bonds Ratio into an upside movement.

Then, the past couple of days has seen it equivocate.  It nudged above the zero line, then fell back below the zero line.  The zero line is the demarcation between medium tern bullish and bearish.

Historical and Implied Volatility.

When Historical Volatility falls below Implied Volatility - the market is usually in a short-term bullish trend.  (HV is based on historical data of the XJO.  Implied Volatility is based on data from the VIX Index.)

When HV gets down to around the 5 level, a reversal in the XJO trend usually occurs.  HV is not far off that level.

(This is often a leading or co-incident indicator.)

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 40%, This Week 51%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 60%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA has stalled this week at 77%.  Medium term and long term the market improved.

Conclusion.

 

XJO has had a strong counter-trend rally but appears to be stalling at Horizontal Resistance.

I've outlined plenty of pluses and minuses, and maybes about the market this week.  Nothing convincing one way or the other.

The coming week may be crucial for the near-term future of the XJO.

XJO resumes trading on Tuesday.  America will resume on Monday so that could provide an indication of where our market will go.

Addendum.

Asian markets, which were not closed on Friday, were up, Japan +0.17%.  Korea +1.27%, Hong Kong +0.28%, Shanghai +0.45%.

In America on Friday, Non-Farm payrolls indicated a slowing in employment.  CNBC commented: 

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

That might give the American market hope for a slowing or pause in Federal Reserve interest rate rises and a boost to stock markets.

U.S. Futures were mildly positive on Friday.  Dow Jones +0.19%, SP500 +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

That's all relatively positive for America on Monday night - but anything can happen.  Wait for Tuesday morning.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

10/8/22.  Overnight U.S. stocks fall.  Tech hard hit.

Dow Jones -0.19%.  SP500 -0.42%.  Nasdaq -1.19%.  Small Caps -1.44%.  Banks +0.45%.

European stocks also fell with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.11%.

SP500.

The modest fall in the SP500 keeps it in short-term and medium-term up-trends.  The longer term remains in doubt with the Index below the 200-Day MA.

The negative divergence on CCI suggests further falls down from the Horizontal Retracement Zone, 50%-61.8% of the fall earlier this year.

Plenty of near-by support may cushion any further falls.

Tonight in the U.S., CPI data is released.  If inflation ticks higher, the Fed. may be more aggressive in its next interest rate rise.

Commodities.  Out of step with Stocks.

Commodities Index +0.93%.  Energy +0.95%.  Base Metals +1.42% and up to the 50-Day MA, Agriculture +0.4%.  Gold tipped above its 50-Day MA, up +0.31%.  Expect more upside in Gold.

Iron Ore -1.5%.  Thermal Coal +3.6%.

Lots of plusses and minuses for Australia in the overnight data.  Stronger base metals, Energy and Banks should limit losses today in Australia.

After 15 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.47%.  BHP is flat +0.05%, but Rio has risen +0.57%.  

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets

15/7/22.  Mixed results in U.S. markets.

Dow Jones -0.46%.  SP500 -0.3%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Small Caps -0.89%.  Banks -2.01%.

SP500.

Stock indices were led lower by a worse than expected result for J.P. Morgan.  But indices regained much of those losses throughout the day with plenty of intra-day buying.  That led to a modest loss in the SP500 of only -0.3%.  The Index remains within its sideways consolidation which suggests the next move will be to the upside, but still no break-out.

Commodities.

Commodities continued to fall last night - not a good sign for the ASX today.

Commodities Index -0.92%.  Energy -0.7%.  Base Metals -1.61%.  Agriculture -1.21%.  Gold -1.4%.

Iron Ore -4.8%.  Thermal Coal -3.2%.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, the XJO is down -1.24%.  The fall is severe in the miners with Materials down -3.3%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

10.45 a.m.  13/7/22.  Breaking.  XJO just went positive.  Up 3.1 points.  We could have a positive day today.

13/7/22.  U.S. stocks fall overnight.

 Dow Jones -0.62%.  SP500 -0.92%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  SP500 -0.12%.  Banks -0.24%.

The three major indices are floating between the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.  A break out of that range will be important.

Coming up in America will be inflation data and the start of earnings season.  Among the large caps, JP Morgan is first cab off the ranks on Thursday.  These events could act as a catalyst for significant movement in the major indices.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term sideways consolidation where it has been for nearly three weeks.  Wait for a break-out from the range, 3770-3900.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to be under pressure.  That's bad news for Commodity based economies such as Australia.

Commodities Index -4.53%.  Energy -5.31%.  Base Metals -2.7%.  Agriculture -2.77%.  Gold -0.37%.

Iron Ore -3.1%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down a little, -0.2%.  It's hard to see it turning positive with such poor Commodities and a falling U.S. market.

Finspiration Australia. Stock Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

1/7/22.  Overnight - U.S. equities finish lower.

 Dow Jones -0.82%.  SP500 -0.88%.  Nasdaq -1.33%.  Small Caps -0.39%.  Banks -1.64%.

SP500.

Last night, SPX fell below support then recovered to remain between support and resistance.  That provides some optimism that the next move will be to the upside.  Wait.

For the first half of 2022, SPX is down almost -20%.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -3.09%.  Energy -3.25%.  Base Metals -3.53%.  Agriculture -1.55%.  Gold -0.61%.

Iron Ore -0.1%.  Thermal Coal +1.6%.

Well - if all of the above doesn't say we'll be down today, I don't know what would.  But, for some reason I can't see, Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.2%.  Maybe it's because bond yields fell overnight (bond prices higher), which may have a positive effect on stocks today.  We shall see.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

15/6/22 Mixed Results in the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.5%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq +0.18%.  Small Caps -0.27%.  Banks -0.92%.

SP500.

Momentum to the downside is slower.  Momentum must slow before the Index can reverse to the upside.

Positive divergences on MACD and Money Flow Index suggest a move to the upside is coming soon.

Commodities.

Commodities remain bearish.  Commodities Index -1.1%.  Energy -1.11%.  Base Metals -1.7%.  Agriculture -0.28%.  Gold -0.8%.

Iron Ore -0.9%,  Thermal Coal -1.8%.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.6%.

     Weekly Wrap - Week ending 10 June, 2022.

XJO Monthly Chart.

XJO is only ten days into a new month (June).

The monthly chart remains range bound 6930-7539, but now at the lower edge of that range.  XJO finished Friday at 6932

The chart is  is essentially sideways as indicated by the two flat Supertrend lines, one above and one below the monthly candles.  

The MACD Histogram has fallen this week to the down-side, indicating that momentum is to the downside.

Weekly Chart.

XJO This week, XJO has its worst week since April, 2020, down -4.24%.  That broke a three week positive run.

The chart is range bound, in concert with the monthly chart, but clearly at the lower end of the range  

Medium term, the chart remains bearish..  Hull MA13 is blue (bearish); two Supertrend lines are blue (bearish) and the chart is just below the 8-Week EMA (bearish).  RSI and CCI are below their mid-lines (bearish). MACD Histogram is falling - momentum to the downside is increasing.

The chart is, however, rising from the lower edge of the range

Last week XJO finished at 7239, this week it finished at 6932.  

Daily Chart.

Both Supertrend Lines are bearish, Hull MA13 is bearish; Chart is below the 8-DEMA which is bearish.

On the bright side, there is a double positive divergence on the MACD histogram and the MACD itself.

That has a reasonably reliable leading indicator.  It suggests that the Chart will move up in the coming week.  

ASX is closed on Monday, 13 June for Queen's Birthday celebrations in the southern states.  So our market might escape the catastrophic fall in the U.S. on Friday if the U.S. bounces on Monday.

The ASX this week was knee-capped by a huge fall in Financials, down -9.01% after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by more than expected +0.5%.

I'm a bit perplexed by the fall in the Financial Sector.  Rising interest rates are supposedly good for Banks as they can increase margins.  So the "big boys" who control the market must be assuming that economic activity will be so poor that will impinge on banks, and, possibly, they are expecting a large number of customers to fail in their loan repayments.

In yesterday's post, I looked at ANZ, one of the four big banks which dominate the Financial Sector.  That examination was hopeful of a rebound in ANZ, which would be reflected in the other three big banks.  So we may have seen the worst of the falls in Financials, at least in the short-term

SP500.

On Friday night, SP500 gapped down at the opening and continued falling to finish down -2.91%.

That move takes the SP500 down into a support zone from which it has bounced several times in the past.  After such a big fall, it is likely that SP500 will bounce again.

Sector Changes - past week.

This chart shows the performance of each sector (plus Gold Miners, XJO, BEAR and IAF) over the past week.  

Two sectors up, one flat and eight down. The best was Energy XEJ +4.97%, followed by Utilities XUJ +0.46%.  Energy fell heavily on Friday, down -1.64%.  It's run up might be coming to an end.

Financials (XXJ -9.01%) is the biggest sector in the market and a major drain on the performance of the XJO this week.  Not far behind is Real Estate XPJ -7.67%.  XPJ is an interest rate sensitive sector, so the big fall in XPJ is understandable.  The other sector highly sensitive to interest rate movements is Information Technology -4.81%.

New Highs - New Lows Cumulative.

This is one of the important breadth indicators.  Unless breadth is solidly positive, the market is always under threat.

NH-NL Cumulative continues to fall and is now well under its 10-Day Moving Average, that's a big red danger sign for long-term investors.  

ASX Advance-Decline Line.

This is another important indicator of breadth.

ASX Advance-Decline Line is also bearish, and in sync with NH-NL Cum.

 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 53%, This Week 17%.

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 31%, This Week 18%.

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 38%, This Week 29%

This is another indicator of weak breadth.  

Once these instruments fall below 20, that's a contrarian signal that the market might bounce.  Two out of three instruments are below 20.  It would be even stronger if the third one was below 20, but we are looking at a very weak oversold market, so the chance of a bounce is good.

I don't think there's any point in jumping the gun, if we're reaching an inflection point in the market, there'll be plenty of time to hop on a new trend.

Seasonally, we often see a medium term up-trend in stock markets.  I'd wait and see how this pans out.

Conclusion.

1.  Monthly, Weekly and Daily Charts are at the lower end of their ranges.   I could speculate that we'll bounce here, and there is some evidence for such a view, but jumping the gun could be dangerous move.

2.  Breadth is poor, so poor that contrarians will be salivating at the prospect of new buying coming into the market.  Contrarian signs are not always reliable, and sometimes well ahead of what could happen.  

3.  We need to see a move up on the Stochastic Daily chart.

4.  Double positive divergence on MACD and its Histogram point to the possibility of a move to the upside.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and European Stock Markets

 11/6/22.  In Australia yesterday.

Yesterday, XJO fell -1.25%, or -87.7 points.  For the week, XJO was down -4.24%.  That's the worst weekly performance since April, 2020,  just after the bear market of March, 2020.

A 52-week low was set for the XJO at the end of January, 2022.  The close on that day was 6838.3.  XJO finished yesterday at 6932.  That's 93.7 points away.  That's feasible given the magnitude of falls this week.  That 52-week low could be a turning point. 

Stochastic is in its oversold level, RSI14 is at 35.95 which is oversold.  Another big fall coming on Monday could take RSI14 into vey oversold territory which might be a catalyst for an upside move.  Of course, very oversold can become more very oversold back in March 2020.

Australian Banks are showing some promise of a rebound.  Below is a chart for ANZ:

CCI and Money Flow Index both show striking positive divergences from the ANZ chart.  Those two indicators are often good leading indicators for a trend reversal.

Yesterday's candle is a huge "tombstone" candle.  The upper wick is especially long.  Tombstones are often seen at the end of a down-trend. 

RSI14 is extremely oversold at 21.43.  Rarely do we see a reading below 25 without a rebound.

Stochastic is in its oversold zone.  A move up would indicate a short-term buy signal.  Any move up could precipitate a short covering rally.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -2.73%.  SP500 +2.91%.  Nasdaq -3.52%.  Small Daps -2.49%.  Banks -4.34%.

SP500.

SP500 gapped down at the opening and just kept going.

Money Flow Index shows an extreme positive divergence from price.  So a bottom may be in place soon.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.98%.  Energy -0.92%.  Base Metals -1.79%.  Gold +1.34%.

Gold gapped down at the opening, but then reversed to the upside under heavy buying.    That could signal the end of the bearish market in Gold.

Gold.

The bullish engulfing candle last night in Gold took the Gold chart above the 200-Day MA, which often provides a "go" signal for gold bugs.  GLD is now at resistance of the 50-Day MA, but the current momentum seems likely to overcome that resistance.

Finspiration Australia. Technical Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

 20/4/22.  Overnight.  U.S. equities up strongly.

Dow Jones +1.45%.  SP500 +1.61%.  Nasdaq +1.9%.  Small Caps +1.9%.  Banks +2.18%.

SP500.

Despite last night's strong rise, SPX remains in a consolidation pattern.  Some indicators are bullish, some suggest plenty of upside resistance just overhead.  A further break to the upside would overcome the negatives.

Commodities.

I suggested yesterday that further upside in Energy looked in doubt.  Last night, Energy fell heavily, down -3.48%, which took the Commodities Index down with it, DBC -2.57%.  Base Metals also suffered, DBB -1.22%.  Gold -1.51%.

Iron Ore -1.1%.

Overnight Oz Futures up +0.6%.  That should ensure a strong start to the day.

Rio has announced new production results for the first quarter.  Pre-market price for Rio shows a positive expectation for the opening, but BHP is flat, affected by those poor metals and energy prices overnight.  

KKR has made a non-binding offer for Ramsay Health Care of $88 per share.  In the pre-market, RHC is up nearly 25%.  That will have a big effect of the Health Sector (XHJ).

According to Jim Cramer, from CNBC's Mad Money, the U.S. market had no business rising last night with so many negatives against it.  Read his comments here on why it did.

Comments above are my personal ideas and remain probabilistic and contingent.  Do your own research.

Finspiration Australia. U.S. equities down. Tech hard hit.

 Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.19%.  SP500 -0.63%.  Nasdaq -1.21%.  Small Caps -1.84%.  Banks -2.21%.

European stocks also fell, with STOXX600 down -0.4%.

SP500.

Last night's action looks like the start of a pull-back portended by the negative divergence on the CCI.  Traders will look to buy the dip - a likely support is the Ichimkoku Cloud and the 200-Day MA.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.8%.  Energy +1.91%.  Base Metals +2.23%.  Gold +0.8%.

Iron Ore +0.4%.

Those good Commodity and IO figures should give Ozzie resources a boost today.

Overnight Oz Futures are up a little, 10 points or +0.1%.

Overnight, BHP was up +3.1% in the U.S. after falling yesterday in Australia just a little -0.08%.