Showing posts with label SP500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SP500. Show all posts

Thursday, July 13, 2023

14/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Oz Market should open on the high side this morning with ASX 200 Futures up +0.54%.

Overnight In the U.S.  Report Card on Indices was varied: From "Needs more effort"  to "Very Good".      


Dow Jones flat +0.14%.  SP500 +0.85%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Mid Cap +0.57%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks +1.33%.

SP500.

 


This rise looks too sharp and too far above the Kumo Cloud to be sustainable.  Prepare for a pull-back or, at least, a consolidation.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.41%.  Energy +1.11%Base Metals +2.06%.  Agriculture +0.66%.  Gold flat +0.07%.

 

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Finspiration Australia

 




 Sunday, 21 May, Weekly Report. Australian Market.

The week started poorly but the past couple of days saw an improvement as a "miracle" in the American debt ceiling talks seemed probable.

XJO Daily.


XJO finished up a moderate +0.31% for the week but remains in a sideways consolidation movement.

Weekly Performance of Sectors (plus Gold Miners, XJO and Bonds)






Five sectors up, five sectors down and one flat.  Information Technology +5.19% continued its good work from the previous week when it was up +1.97%.  XEJ, which can be quite volatile, was up +1.6% after being flat the previous week. 

The main defensive sectors suffered again this week.  XHJ down -0.69%, XSJ -1.08%, Utilities -0.22%.  Investors seem to be positioned for a risk-on market with a move out of defensives. 

Morningstar classifies the sectors into three groups, 

  • Cyclicals - XMJ, XDJ, XXJ, XPJ.  These have strong correlations to the business cycle.  
  • Sensitive - XTJ, XEJ, XNJ, XIJ.  These have moderate correlations to the business cycle.
  • Defensives - XHJ, XUJ, XSJ.  These tend to have low correlations to the business cycle.

    The "Sensitive" group did well this week with three sectors up and one flat.  XIJ was the best performing sector, followed by XEJ, while XTJ was the fourth best performer.  So three out of the four best performers this week came from the Sensitive group  

    Momentum

    The following data is a medium term measure of momentum obtained by subtracting Weekly RSI from Daily RSI.

    The only sectors with positive upside momentum are Property (XPJ), Energy (XEJ), Telecomms (XTJ) and Information Technology (XIJ). 

    XIJ has continued its dominance this week.  The sector is getting a little long in the tooth - if you hold strong stocks in that sector -  good for you.  It's probably too late now for non-holders to go chasing those stocks (e.g. XRO, WTC).

    Besides XIJ, the big improvers this week were Energy (XEJ) and Financials (XXJ).  Strong stocks in those sectors might be worth a look in the next week. 

    SP500 Daily Chart.



    SP500 had a strong week this week with hopes that a solution to the Debt Ceiling impasse was probable.  SP500 was up +1.65% this week with most of that coming on Wednesday and Thursday (NY time).

    The Index is in an Upsloping Bearish Wedge.  In my experience, these have a high probability of breaking to the down-side.

    Yesterday, in my Saturday blog, I mentioned that the current up-trend could be a "sucker rally" hasNYSE and Nasdaq breadth hasn't improved in the same way as the Index.

    That adds to the probability that the upscoping wedge will break to the down-side.

    Take care.  If a debt ceiling agreement is reached - it might be a case of "sell the fact".

    Stocks/Bonda Ratio.



    The Stocks/Bonds Ratio Chart has climbed above the zero line so Stocks are currently out-performing Bonds - risk-on.  But,  it is usually best to wait until the 5-Day MA breaks above the 21-Day MA before feeling comfortable about a medium term rally in stocks. 


    Conclusion.

    XJO remains in a sideways consolidation.  Investors appear to be positioning for a risk-on market, with cycling out of Defensives Sectors and into Sensitive Sectors, and, to a lesser extent, into Cyclical Sectors.

    SP500 may be setting up for a move to the downside after a strong week after improving Debt Ceiling talks.  If SP500 does drop, we will probably follow and could break to the downside of the current consolidation.

    Stay safe.

    Friday, May 12, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     13/5/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Australia was flat on Friday, in the U.S. major indices down a little.

    XJO

    XJO was up just +0.07% on Friday - the fourth day of little movement in the indices.

    The Supertrend Lines (two yellow and one blue) indicate a non-trending market.

    Daunt DZ Stochastic is bullish, but Daily RSI remains below its 20-Day MA.  Again this is typical of a non-trending market.

    A move in the Supertrends to all yellow and a move by the RSI above its 20-Day MA would be bullish.

    Time to be patient.

    Overnight in the U.S.


    Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 -0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.35%.  Mid Caps -0.02%.  Small Caps -0.29%.  Banks -0.79%.

    Not much happening in the U.S. where the regional banks are still cause for some concern.

    SP500.


    The SP500, like the XJO, shows a non-trending market.

    Wait.

    Commodities.


    The Commodities don't hold much joy for Australian stocks, although Base Metals seems to be stabilising after Thursday's big drop.

    Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.6%.  Base Metals +0.66%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.17%.

    It looks like more of nothing much for our market on Monday.

    Tuesday, May 2, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

    U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.


    Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

    SP500.


    Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

    Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

    Commodities.

    Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

    After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

    Thursday, April 27, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     28/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks up strongly.  Worries about banks went out the door with Tech surging strongly. AMAZON falls 2% after its report coming after the closing bell.


    Dow Jones +1.57%.  SP500 +1.96%.  Nasdaq +2.43%.  Mid Caps +1.53%.  Small Caps +1.52%.  Banks +1.54%.

    SP500


    That's a big bullish candle on the SP500 and the index finished above the 8-DEMA and Supertrend turned bullish.  Those are usually reliable early buy signals.  But anything can happen in reporting season.

    Amazon is down in extended trading after hours.  SNAP is now down -17% and Pinterest down -13%.  Tread warily.

    Commodities.


    Commodities Index +0.13%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.37%.  Agriculture -0.19%.  Gold +0.01%.

    BHP up +1.2% overnight in New York.  Rio up +1.21%.

    Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.75%, so we should have a good start to today's trading in Australia.


    Wednesday, April 26, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.


    Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

    Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

    SP500.

    Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

    Commodities.

    Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

    BHP and Rio both up overnight.

    Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.


    Tuesday, April 25, 2023

    Finspiration Australia

    26/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

    Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks finish well down.


    Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.59%.  Nasdaq -1.96%.  Mid Caps -1.93%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Banks -3.45%.

    SP500.


    Three doji candlesticks followed by a big down candle?  Indecision resolved.

    All indicators are now bearish.  Wait for the down-trend to finish.

    Commodities.


    Commodities Index -1.42%.  Energy -2.82%.  Base Metals -2.42%. Agriculture +0.33%.  Gold +0.61%.

    After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.49%.  Big miners are taking the brunt of the bearish conditions.

    In after market news in the U.S., Microsoft and Alphabet reported.  Both beat expectations.  That should flow on to the Oz market today, although - probably not enough to turn it positive.


    Monday, April 24, 2023

    Finspiration Australia

     25/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Yesterday in Australia, XJO down marginally.

    Overnight in the U.S., muted market with mixed results.

    XJO Chart.


    XJO has now triggered many short-term "sell" signals.  

    • Hull MA13 has switched from up to down.  (Dashed line on the chart.)
    • RSI has fallen below the mid-line (20-Day MA) of its Bollinger Bands.
    • DZ Stochastic has its bands squeezed together and the Stock line has fallen to the downside.
    • Short-term line of Double MACD has fallen below its long-term line.
    • CCI has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.
    • Chart has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.
    Triple Supertrend lines still haven't switched from yellow to blue - that's a more of a medium-term signal.

    U.S. Indices overnight.

    Dow Jones +0.2%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.29%.  Mid Caps +0.02%.  Small Caps -0.01%.  Banks -0.41%.

    SP500.

    Sp500 is showing similar short-term sell signals to the Australian XJO.  Triple Supertrends continue to show bullish - this is more of a medium-term indicator.

    SP500 is showing three doji candle-sticks in a row - indecision.  America is in the midst of Earnings Season - later this week some of the biggest Tech Companies report, e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

    The American market is in indecision mode waiting on those ginormous companies to report.

    Other big U.S. companies reporting this week are:  Visa, Pepsi, McDonald's, Boeing, Intel, Mastercard, Exxon, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive.  So it's a big week for reporting in the U.S. this week.  This will have an effect on the direction of the market.

    Next week, the Federal Reserve reports on its interest rate decision.  That's another overhang on the market.

    Commodities.

    Commodities Index +0.8%.  Energy +1.6%.  Base Metals -0.72%.  Agriculture +0.57%.  Gold +0.37%.

    The Australian Market is closed for Anzac Day today.




    Wednesday, April 19, 2023

    Finspiration Australia

     20/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Overnight in the U.S.  Little change in the U.S. again last night.


    Dow Jones -0.23%.  SP500 -0.01%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Mid Caps +0.18%.  Small Caps +0.31%.  Banks +1.6%.

    SP500.


    SP500 remains above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend (10/1).

    DZ Stochastic and Double MACD have given marginal sell signals, but not confirmed by RSI.

    Commodities.

    Commodities Index -1.39%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.89%.  Gold -0.48%.

    Yesterday in Australia we had a flat day with Miners up and Banks down.  Today it seems we'll have another flat day but relative strength reversed, Banks up and Miners down.



    Tuesday, April 18, 2023

    Finspirtion Australia.

     19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

    Overnight:  US finishes with little change.


    Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

    SP500.

    SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

    The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

    Continue to watch for a downside break.

    Commodities.


    Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

    After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

    Bitcoin.

    BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

    MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

    Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.


    Friday, April 14, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

    15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

    XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.


    XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

    The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

    Overnight in America.

    Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

    SP500.


    Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

    SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

    DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

    Commodities.


    Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

    Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

    The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

    Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

    Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

    (I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)


    Thursday, April 13, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     14/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

    U.S. records another solid upside move.


    Dow Jones +1.14%.  SP500 +1.33%.  Nasdaq +1.99%.  Mid Caps +0.69%.  Small Caps +0.84%.  Banks +0.73%.

    SP500.


    The SP500 remains in a strong upside rally, but the negative divergence on CCI suggests it may be on its last legs.

    SP500 had a good run, but it might be too late to start buying into this rally now.  I'll be waiting on a pull-back.

    Commodities.

    Commodities Index +0.00%.  Energy -0.74%.  Base Metals +1.84%.  Agriculture -0.48%.  Gold +1.35&.

    After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down marginally -.03%, it's never a good sign when the Oz market starts weak after a strong night on Wall Street.

    Bitcoin.

    Bitcoin continues on its merry (bullish) way, up last night +1.68%.  It has successfully tested major horizontal support/resistance.  I'd expect more upside.





    Tuesday, April 11, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     12/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

    U.S markets mixed overnight.  Rio up >5% in London.


    Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 -0.00%.  Nasdaq -40%.  The front-line troops of the market (Mid Caps and Small Caps) were both positive.  Mid Caps +0.89%.  Small Caps +0.73%.  Banks were also positive, +1.28%.

    SP500.


    SP500 has bounced off the 8-Day EMA, - that's a positive.  In the very short-term, however, Hull MA13 has turned down.  Watch for direction in the next session as today's candle was a doji - indecision.

    U.S. is coming up to important inflation data which will likely be market moving.

    SP500 remains in an up-trend - above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.

    Commodities.


    Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture +0.68%.  Gold +0.63%.

    ASX Futures point to a positive opening this morning, +0.25%.

    We should have another positive day today.

    Monday, April 10, 2023

    Finspiration Australia.

     11/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

    U.S. up modestly.


    Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq flat -0.03%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +0.82%.

    SP500.



    SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  The medium term trend remains up.  

    The past two days show intra-day buying.

    Stay with the up-trend.

    Commodities.


    Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy flat +0.09%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.74%.

    Although Base Metals finished to the down-side, there was a lot of intra-day buying which augurs well for our miners today.

    Bitcoin.

    BTC has a big rise last night, up +4.64% and has broken upwards from its long side-ways consolidation.

    The crypto remains in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

    Finspiration Australia. 14/11/23. Tues. Morning Report.

    Mixed Results in New York.  Energy up. NAB ex-dividend today. Dow Jones +0.16%.  SP500 -0.08%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps -0.07%.  Banks -0...