Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 13/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks continue to run higher for fourth day.

Dow Jones +0.71%.  SP500 +1.05%.  Nasdaq +1.27%.  Small Caps +1.28%.  Banks +0.83%.

European stocks also rose strongly, with European STOXX 600 up +1.8%.

SP500.

Short-term, SP500 continues to be bullish, but now facing some resistance from a congestion zone to its left and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  Expect some consolidation here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.38%.  Energy +1.47%.  Base Metals +1.05%.  Agriculture +0.69%.  Gold +0.51%.

Iron Ore -0.6%.  Thermal Coal +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.7%.  

Expect another solid day for the ASX today on the back of higher overseas stocks and commodities.

BITCOIN.

Since early June, 2022, Bitcoin has been in a long sideways consolidation within a longer down trend.

It remains below the Kumo Cloud and well below its 200-Day MA.  Until resistance of those two indicators, it is best to consider any rally to be a counter-trend rally in an ongoing bear market.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 8/9/22.  Overnight, American stocks up, Nasdaq snaps seven day losing streak.

Dow Jones +1.4%.  SP500 +1.83%.  Nasdaq +2.14%.  Small Caps +1.81%.  Banks +2.18%.

SP500.

SP500 has found support at the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud.  We can expect some more upside, but plenty of resistance lies nearby.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.38%.  Energy -3.99%.  Base Metals -1.02%.  Agriculture -0.64%.  Gold +1.02%.

Iron Ore -0.4%.  Thermal Coal -2.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.5%.  So we should have a positive day today, but resource stocks might be under pressure.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets

2/9/22.  Overnight in America, results were mixed.

Dow Jones +0.46%.  SP500 +0.3%.  Nasdaq -0.26%.  Small Caps -1.22%.  Banks -0.17%.

SP500.

Strong intra-day buying pushed the SP500 into positive territory, eliminating early losses.

The Index has found support at the Kumo Cloud.  That's promising, this could be the bottom of this pull-back.  We need to see further upside before being confident.

Commodities.

Commodities fell heavily overnight.  Commodities Index -2.14%.  Energy -2.15%. Base Metals -3.79%.  Agriculture -1.55%.  Gold continues in its bear market, -0.88%.

Iron Ore -8%.  

Those resource prices are going to put a dent in today's ASX numbers.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.3% which suggests a positive opening to today's ASX trading.  I think that might be a bit optimistic.


 

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

9/8/22.  Overnight Major U.S. Indices more or less flat.

 Dow Jones +0.09%.  SP500 -0.12%.  Nasdaq -0.1%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks -0.53%.

Euro Stoxx 50 finished up +0.85%.

American stocks opened strongly following Europe, but the rally faded after the first half-hour.

SP500

SP500 remains in the Retracement Zone between 50% and 61.8% of the fall from late March to mid-June.  That's also opposite a congestion zone which occurred in late May to early June.

The negative divergence on CCI (bottom panel) suggests the next move will be down.

CPI comes out on Wednesday.  That may be a catalyst for a move in the market - either up or down.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.21%.  Energy +1.95%.  Base Metals +0.2%.  Agriculture +0.55%.  Gold +0.85%.

Gold continues to find resistance at the 50-Day MA.  A break above that should see a sustained rally to the upside.

Iron Ore +1.7%.  Thermal Coal +2.8%.

ASX is set to open flat with Overnight Oz Futures down -0.1%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

28/7/22.  U.S. stocks finished higher after Fed. decision.

 Dow Jones 1.37%.  SP500 +2.62%.  Nasdaq +4.08%.  Small Caps +2.33%.  Banks +1.98%.

As expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by +0.75%, but Fed. Head Powell said he didn't think the U.S. was in recession and implied but further rate rises might moderate.

The yield curve, however, remains inverted.  That's usually taken as a sign that a recession is a probability

SP500.

SP500 remains in a short-term up-trend.

CCI and MACD Histogram both show negative divergences from the Index Chart, which suggests SP500 is coming to the end of its rise in the near future.

SP500 is inside the Kumo Cloud, so the top of the cloud might provide resistance.

Commodities.

Commodities also responded well to the interest-rate increase.  Commodities Index +2.28%.  Energy +2.99%.  Base Metals +1.13%.  Agriculture +0.71%.  Gold +1.02%.

Iron Ore +0.1%.  Thermal Coal -0.6%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up 0.8%, so ASX market should have a strong start to trading today

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 22/7/22.  U.S. equities rise for third day.

Dow Jones +0.51%.  SP500 +0.99%.  Nasdaq +1.36%.  Small Caps +0.28%.  Banks +0.63%.

SP500.

The short-term trend remains up.  The chart has moved into the Kumo Cloud, which usually means it will go to the upper side of the Cloud before hitting resistance, that's about 4140, or around 3%.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.68%.  Energy stepped down -2.21%.  Base Metals +0.22%.  Gold +1.41%.

Iron ore -0.7%.  Thermal Coal -1.3%.

Those metal and energy prices could put a cap on ASX resource stocks today.

ASX set to open flat.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets

15/7/22.  Mixed results in U.S. markets.

Dow Jones -0.46%.  SP500 -0.3%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Small Caps -0.89%.  Banks -2.01%.

SP500.

Stock indices were led lower by a worse than expected result for J.P. Morgan.  But indices regained much of those losses throughout the day with plenty of intra-day buying.  That led to a modest loss in the SP500 of only -0.3%.  The Index remains within its sideways consolidation which suggests the next move will be to the upside, but still no break-out.

Commodities.

Commodities continued to fall last night - not a good sign for the ASX today.

Commodities Index -0.92%.  Energy -0.7%.  Base Metals -1.61%.  Agriculture -1.21%.  Gold -1.4%.

Iron Ore -4.8%.  Thermal Coal -3.2%.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, the XJO is down -1.24%.  The fall is severe in the miners with Materials down -3.3%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

10.45 a.m.  13/7/22.  Breaking.  XJO just went positive.  Up 3.1 points.  We could have a positive day today.

13/7/22.  U.S. stocks fall overnight.

 Dow Jones -0.62%.  SP500 -0.92%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  SP500 -0.12%.  Banks -0.24%.

The three major indices are floating between the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.  A break out of that range will be important.

Coming up in America will be inflation data and the start of earnings season.  Among the large caps, JP Morgan is first cab off the ranks on Thursday.  These events could act as a catalyst for significant movement in the major indices.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term sideways consolidation where it has been for nearly three weeks.  Wait for a break-out from the range, 3770-3900.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to be under pressure.  That's bad news for Commodity based economies such as Australia.

Commodities Index -4.53%.  Energy -5.31%.  Base Metals -2.7%.  Agriculture -2.77%.  Gold -0.37%.

Iron Ore -3.1%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down a little, -0.2%.  It's hard to see it turning positive with such poor Commodities and a falling U.S. market.

Finspiration Australia. Stock Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

1/7/22.  Overnight - U.S. equities finish lower.

 Dow Jones -0.82%.  SP500 -0.88%.  Nasdaq -1.33%.  Small Caps -0.39%.  Banks -1.64%.

SP500.

Last night, SPX fell below support then recovered to remain between support and resistance.  That provides some optimism that the next move will be to the upside.  Wait.

For the first half of 2022, SPX is down almost -20%.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -3.09%.  Energy -3.25%.  Base Metals -3.53%.  Agriculture -1.55%.  Gold -0.61%.

Iron Ore -0.1%.  Thermal Coal +1.6%.

Well - if all of the above doesn't say we'll be down today, I don't know what would.  But, for some reason I can't see, Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.2%.  Maybe it's because bond yields fell overnight (bond prices higher), which may have a positive effect on stocks today.  We shall see.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets

 Overnight.

NYSE closed overnight.

In Europe stocks rose strongly with EuroStoxx600 up +1%.  German DAX +1.06%.  Bank stocks up about +3%.  

DAX remains in non-trending mode with both Span A and Span B of the Kumo Cloud parallel to each other.  

Commodities.

Brent Crude Oil +0.9%.  Copper -0.3%.  Iron Ore -2.6%.  

In the U.K. BHP fell -1.6% and Rio -1%.  Those figures aren't too bad as in Australia yesterday BHP fell -5.3% and Rio -5.06%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +47 points or +0.7%.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO down -0.64%, so our market on present indications should gain back most of yesterday's losses.

Inspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

24/5/22.  Overnight.

 Dow Jones +1.99%.  SP500 +1.86%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Banks +4.08%.

That move by the Banks takes the Index back up to the 20-DMA where it has failed before.  A decisive move up above the 20-DMA would be encouraging for the bulls.

SP500.

Monday's action shows follow-through buying from the intra-day buying on Friday.  

All lower indicators show positive divergences, with the double divergence on MACD and Histogram a very bullish sign.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.75%.  Energy +0.88%.  Base Metals +0.96%.  Agriculture +0.9%.  Gold +0.47%.

Iron Ore -0.1%.  Thermal Coal -0.3%.

After 10 minutes of trading on the ASX, XJO is flat, up just 0.04%.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 12/5/22.   Overnight.

No reprieve for the bulls.  Bear market continues on down.

Dow Jones -1.02%.  SP500 -1.85%.  Nasdaq -3.18%.  Small Caps -1.68%.  Banks -1.78%.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a steep down-trending channel.  Until it breaks to the upside of that channel, it's no use for the bulls to expect a counter-trend rally.

Any green shoots?  Yes - a couple.  Volume has eased off a little in the last couple of days, and CCI is showing a positive divergence.  But - wait, until we see firm evidence of a move to the upside.

Commodities.

Some reprieve for Commodities last night, with DBC (+2.46%) bouncing off its 50-Day MA.  Energy +3.19%.  Base Metals +1.89%.  Agriculture +1.82%.  Gold +0.82%.

Iron Ore +3%.  Thermal Coal +2.2%.

Those Commodity prices and IO price hold promise for resources and agricultural stocks today in Australia.

Overnight Oz Futures are down -0.5% - not as bad as the U.S. would suggest.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Markets.

 10/5/22.  Overnight.

Dow Jones -1.99%.  SP500 -3.2%.  Nasdaq -4.29%.  Small Caps +2.84%.  Banks -1.9%.

Indices down for the third day in a row - and new one-year lows.

The only bright sport (a very dim bright spot) in the American sectors was Consumer Staples which was flat, down just -0.04%.

It is difficult to imagine a more difficult environment for stocks than the current one:  war in Europe, slowing Chinese economy with covid lock-downs, possibility of recession in America, an aggressive Federal reserve and high inflation readings.

SP500.

Last might might have been a climax selling event with the Index down >3% and volume at its highest in at least the last 500 trading days.  That's about two years.  (I haven't looked back more than 500 days.) 

Positive divergences on CCI and Stochastic suggest the possibility of a bounce in the near future.

Commodities.

Commodities plunged last night along with stocks.  Commodities Index -4.52%.  Energy -5.57%.  Base Metals -2.96%.  Agriculture -2.34%.  Gold -1.45%.

Iron Ore -4.7%.

After 10 minutes of trading, XJO is down -1.55%.

Finspiration Australia. Technical Analysis of the Australian and International stock markets.

 28/4/22.  Overnight.  Nasdaq flat, DJ up a little.

Dow Jones +0.19%.  SP500 +0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.01%.  Small Caps -0.37%.  Banks -0.65%.

European STOXX600 was up 0.6%

SP500.

SP500 has stabilised at support.  The long lower tail on last night's candle indicates intra-day buying which might indicate we are at a low for this retracement. W e need to see a sizeable upside move tonight to confirm a bottom is in.

The index is oversold with the RSI at 33.6, so the chances of a bounce hers are high.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.7%.  Energy +0.76%.  Base Metals +0.82%.  Gold -0.76%.

Iron Ore +0.1%.

In London, RIO was up +4.1% and BHP up 4%.  That looks promising for the big miners today.

Overnight Oz Futures up +0.5%.  That should ensure a good start to the morning's trade in Australia.

Finspiration Australia. Technical Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

 20/4/22.  Overnight.  U.S. equities up strongly.

Dow Jones +1.45%.  SP500 +1.61%.  Nasdaq +1.9%.  Small Caps +1.9%.  Banks +2.18%.

SP500.

Despite last night's strong rise, SPX remains in a consolidation pattern.  Some indicators are bullish, some suggest plenty of upside resistance just overhead.  A further break to the upside would overcome the negatives.

Commodities.

I suggested yesterday that further upside in Energy looked in doubt.  Last night, Energy fell heavily, down -3.48%, which took the Commodities Index down with it, DBC -2.57%.  Base Metals also suffered, DBB -1.22%.  Gold -1.51%.

Iron Ore -1.1%.

Overnight Oz Futures up +0.6%.  That should ensure a strong start to the day.

Rio has announced new production results for the first quarter.  Pre-market price for Rio shows a positive expectation for the opening, but BHP is flat, affected by those poor metals and energy prices overnight.  

KKR has made a non-binding offer for Ramsay Health Care of $88 per share.  In the pre-market, RHC is up nearly 25%.  That will have a big effect of the Health Sector (XHJ).

According to Jim Cramer, from CNBC's Mad Money, the U.S. market had no business rising last night with so many negatives against it.  Read his comments here on why it did.

Comments above are my personal ideas and remain probabilistic and contingent.  Do your own research.