14/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Oz Market should open on the high side this morning with ASX 200 Futures up +0.54%.

Overnight In the U.S.  Report Card on Indices was varied: From "Needs more effort"  to "Very Good".      

Dow Jones flat +0.14%.  SP500 +0.85%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Mid Cap +0.57%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks +1.33%.

SP500.

 

This rise looks too sharp and too far above the Kumo Cloud to be sustainable.  Prepare for a pull-back or, at least, a consolidation.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.41%.  Energy +1.11%.  Base Metals +2.06%.  Agriculture +0.66%.  Gold flat +0.07%.

 

24/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Friday - felt like Armageddon.  XJO down,  Dow down, Nasdaq down, Europe down, Commodities down.

Armageddon - that is - if you're a normal person - but those dark villains on the "short" side (and I'm not talking about Friends of Snow White or Santa's Little Helpers) were chugging Dom Perignon out of crystal slippers previously worn by Princess Beatrice, who is by now sleeping rough in Piccadilly Circus.

XJO down -1.34%.

That takes the XJO down to just below the 200-Day MA - where it's been a couple of times recently - and then recovered.  

Well - anything is possible in this crazy stock market world, but this looks very different from those two previous efforts of flirting with the 200-Day MA.  

In the U.S. last night:

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.77%.  Nasdaq -1.01%.  Mid Caps -1.16%.  Small Caps -1.65%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is nowhere near as dire as the XJO.  It is way above the 200-Day MA.

As I've noted in the past, XJO decoupled from the American market a long time ago - that's due to the out-sized influence of Technology on the U.S. market - whereas, the Australian Tech sector has a small impact on our market.  The Oz market is more influenced by the resources sector which depend on China and Japan for markets.

Still, SP500 is showing weekness.  The three indicators in the lower panels are all on sell signals.

Two out of three super-trend lines have turned bearish.  But, the SP500 is back to the mid-line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, which suggests it might find support at that level.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -0.26%.  Base Metals -1.96%.  Agriculture -1.91%.  Gold +0.28%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for our resources sectors.

In Sydney, SFE Futures for ASX200 is down -0.23%, which suggests a weak opening on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 28/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks up strongly.  Worries about banks went out the door with Tech surging strongly. AMAZON falls 2% after its report coming after the closing bell.

Dow Jones +1.57%.  SP500 +1.96%.  Nasdaq +2.43%.  Mid Caps +1.53%.  Small Caps +1.52%.  Banks +1.54%.

SP500

That's a big bullish candle on the SP500 and the index finished above the 8-DEMA and Supertrend turned bullish.  Those are usually reliable early buy signals.  But anything can happen in reporting season.

Amazon is down in extended trading after hours.  SNAP is now down -17% and Pinterest down -13%.  Tread warily.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.13%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.37%.  Agriculture -0.19%.  Gold +0.01%.

BHP up +1.2% overnight in New York.  Rio up +1.21%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.75%, so we should have a good start to today's trading in Australia.

Finspiration Australia.

 27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

SP500.

Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

BHP and Rio both up overnight.

Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.

Finspiration Australia.

22/4/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Yesterday in Australia, XJO fell moderately.

Overnight in the U.S., stock market was flat.

XJO down -0.43% and showing the first definite signs of bearishness.  Hull MA13 (dotted line) has turned down and the chart finished below the 8-Day EMA.

Yesterday's dark candle, after two dojos, is a bearish signal.

DZ Stochastic closed below its upper Zone line.  That needs to be confirmed by a close by the RSI below its median line (20-Day MA) and short-term MACD (yellow) closing below longer term MACD (blue).

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.07%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq +0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.06%.  Small Caps -0.32%.  Banks -1.5%.

SP500.

SP500 has had two doji candlesticks in a row.  It remains just a tick above the 8-Day EMA and the past two days have bounced of the first of the triple Superintends.

RSI remains a tick above its median line (20-Day MA).  A drop below the 20-Day MA is bearish.

DZ Stochastic is bearish and short-term MACD is below long-term MACD.

Lots of indecision with two dojis and mixed indicator signals.  Wait.

Commodities.  Energy up, Base Metals down.

Commodities Index -0.21%.  Energy +0.83%.  Base Metals -1.16%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold -0.99%.

With U.S. Banks and Base Metals down overnight, that looks dangerous for Australia on Monday.

Overnight in the U.S., our big miners were down.  BHP -3.23%, Rio -4.04%.  That re-inforces the notion that XJO will be down on Monday.

 

Finspiration Australia

 20/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Little change in the U.S. again last night.

Dow Jones -0.23%.  SP500 -0.01%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Mid Caps +0.18%.  Small Caps +0.31%.  Banks +1.6%.

SP500.

SP500 remains above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend (10/1).

DZ Stochastic and Double MACD have given marginal sell signals, but not confirmed by RSI.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.39%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.89%.  Gold -0.48%.

Yesterday in Australia we had a flat day with Miners up and Banks down.  Today it seems we'll have another flat day but relative strength reversed, Banks up and Miners down.

Finspirtion Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight:  US finishes with little change.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

SP500.

SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

Continue to watch for a downside break.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.

Finspiration Australia.

15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.

XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

SP500.

Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

(I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)

Finspiration Australia.

 14/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. records another solid upside move.

Dow Jones +1.14%.  SP500 +1.33%.  Nasdaq +1.99%.  Mid Caps +0.69%.  Small Caps +0.84%.  Banks +0.73%.

SP500.

The SP500 remains in a strong upside rally, but the negative divergence on CCI suggests it may be on its last legs.

SP500 had a good run, but it might be too late to start buying into this rally now.  I'll be waiting on a pull-back.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.00%.  Energy -0.74%.  Base Metals +1.84%.  Agriculture -0.48%.  Gold +1.35&.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down marginally -.03%, it's never a good sign when the Oz market starts weak after a strong night on Wall Street.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues on its merry (bullish) way, up last night +1.68%.  It has successfully tested major horizontal support/resistance.  I'd expect more upside.

Finspiration Australia.

 12/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S markets mixed overnight.  Rio up >5% in London.

Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 -0.00%.  Nasdaq -40%.  The front-line troops of the market (Mid Caps and Small Caps) were both positive.  Mid Caps +0.89%.  Small Caps +0.73%.  Banks were also positive, +1.28%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced off the 8-Day EMA, - that's a positive.  In the very short-term, however, Hull MA13 has turned down.  Watch for direction in the next session as today's candle was a doji - indecision.

U.S. is coming up to important inflation data which will likely be market moving.

SP500 remains in an up-trend - above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture +0.68%.  Gold +0.63%.

ASX Futures point to a positive opening this morning, +0.25%.

We should have another positive day today.

Finspiration Australia.

 11/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq flat -0.03%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +0.82%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  The medium term trend remains up.  

The past two days show intra-day buying.

Stay with the up-trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy flat +0.09%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.74%.

Although Base Metals finished to the down-side, there was a lot of intra-day buying which augurs well for our miners today.

Bitcoin.

BTC has a big rise last night, up +4.64% and has broken upwards from its long side-ways consolidation.

The crypto remains in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.

Finspiration Australia.

 25/3/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday - XJO down marginally after strong intra-day buying.

Last night - U.S. stocks finish positive.

XJO Friday:

XJO down -0.2% yesterday.  The long lower wick on yesterday's candle indicates strong intra-day buying.

The only positive on the chart is the Hull MA13 which is the shortest MA I use.  

XJO remains below the 200-Day MA.  It has been rejected by the 10-Day MA and the first line of the triple Supertrends.  We need to see better than that to enter for a trade.

Overnight in the U.S.  Major indices finish up modestly.  Regional Banks have a big rise.

Dow Jones +0.41%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.31%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Regional Banks +3.03%.  Despite that big rise in Region Banks, the chart remains mired at the low end of its big down-trend.

SP500.

SP500 is doing better than Australia's XJO.  It finished last night above its 200-Day MA and above all three of the triple Supertrends.  

Hull MA13 is positive and the Index finished above the 10-Day MA.

The index remains locked between the 50-Day MA and the 200-Day MA.  A move above the 50-Day MA would be bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals flat -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.53%.  Gold -1.13%.

The upside movements in the American Indices suggest that the Australian market will be up on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.41%.  The Hull MA13 has turned down which is a short-term negative signal.

Longer term, BTC remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA and triple Supertrends.

Finspiration Australia.

 8/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Powell's comments sink U.S. Stocks.  Commodities down

Dow Jones -1.72%.  SP500 -1.53%.  Nasdaq -1.25%.  Small Caps  -1.0%.  Banks -3.87%.

SP500.

Selling was consistent throughout the session.  The three-day candle stick pattern is bearish after failing at the 20-Day MA.  

Last night's session broke below the 8-Day EMA and the 50-Day MA.

Support remains with the Supertrend.  Tonight's action looks crucial.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.05%.  Energy -2.8%.  Base Metals -2.46%.  Agriculture -0.15%.  Gold -1.75%.

After one hour of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.9%.  

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -1.59%.  It remains below the 50-Day MA and 8Day EMA.  Possible support zone is shown by the shaded rectangle.