24/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Friday - felt like Armageddon.  XJO down,  Dow down, Nasdaq down, Europe down, Commodities down.

Armageddon - that is - if you're a normal person - but those dark villains on the "short" side (and I'm not talking about Friends of Snow White or Santa's Little Helpers) were chugging Dom Perignon out of crystal slippers previously worn by Princess Beatrice, who is by now sleeping rough in Piccadilly Circus.

XJO down -1.34%.

That takes the XJO down to just below the 200-Day MA - where it's been a couple of times recently - and then recovered.  

Well - anything is possible in this crazy stock market world, but this looks very different from those two previous efforts of flirting with the 200-Day MA.  

In the U.S. last night:

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.77%.  Nasdaq -1.01%.  Mid Caps -1.16%.  Small Caps -1.65%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is nowhere near as dire as the XJO.  It is way above the 200-Day MA.

As I've noted in the past, XJO decoupled from the American market a long time ago - that's due to the out-sized influence of Technology on the U.S. market - whereas, the Australian Tech sector has a small impact on our market.  The Oz market is more influenced by the resources sector which depend on China and Japan for markets.

Still, SP500 is showing weekness.  The three indicators in the lower panels are all on sell signals.

Two out of three super-trend lines have turned bearish.  But, the SP500 is back to the mid-line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, which suggests it might find support at that level.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -0.26%.  Base Metals -1.96%.  Agriculture -1.91%.  Gold +0.28%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for our resources sectors.

In Sydney, SFE Futures for ASX200 is down -0.23%, which suggests a weak opening on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.

Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

SP500.

Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 8/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Powell's comments sink U.S. Stocks.  Commodities down

Dow Jones -1.72%.  SP500 -1.53%.  Nasdaq -1.25%.  Small Caps  -1.0%.  Banks -3.87%.

SP500.

Selling was consistent throughout the session.  The three-day candle stick pattern is bearish after failing at the 20-Day MA.  

Last night's session broke below the 8-Day EMA and the 50-Day MA.

Support remains with the Supertrend.  Tonight's action looks crucial.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.05%.  Energy -2.8%.  Base Metals -2.46%.  Agriculture -0.15%.  Gold -1.75%.

After one hour of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.9%.  

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -1.59%.  It remains below the 50-Day MA and 8Day EMA.  Possible support zone is shown by the shaded rectangle.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

10/8/22.  Overnight U.S. stocks fall.  Tech hard hit.

Dow Jones -0.19%.  SP500 -0.42%.  Nasdaq -1.19%.  Small Caps -1.44%.  Banks +0.45%.

European stocks also fell with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.11%.

SP500.

The modest fall in the SP500 keeps it in short-term and medium-term up-trends.  The longer term remains in doubt with the Index below the 200-Day MA.

The negative divergence on CCI suggests further falls down from the Horizontal Retracement Zone, 50%-61.8% of the fall earlier this year.

Plenty of near-by support may cushion any further falls.

Tonight in the U.S., CPI data is released.  If inflation ticks higher, the Fed. may be more aggressive in its next interest rate rise.

Commodities.  Out of step with Stocks.

Commodities Index +0.93%.  Energy +0.95%.  Base Metals +1.42% and up to the 50-Day MA, Agriculture +0.4%.  Gold tipped above its 50-Day MA, up +0.31%.  Expect more upside in Gold.

Iron Ore -1.5%.  Thermal Coal +3.6%.

Lots of plusses and minuses for Australia in the overnight data.  Stronger base metals, Energy and Banks should limit losses today in Australia.

After 15 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.47%.  BHP is flat +0.05%, but Rio has risen +0.57%.  

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 22/7/22.  U.S. equities rise for third day.

Dow Jones +0.51%.  SP500 +0.99%.  Nasdaq +1.36%.  Small Caps +0.28%.  Banks +0.63%.

SP500.

The short-term trend remains up.  The chart has moved into the Kumo Cloud, which usually means it will go to the upper side of the Cloud before hitting resistance, that's about 4140, or around 3%.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.68%.  Energy stepped down -2.21%.  Base Metals +0.22%.  Gold +1.41%.

Iron ore -0.7%.  Thermal Coal -1.3%.

Those metal and energy prices could put a cap on ASX resource stocks today.

ASX set to open flat.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

10.45 a.m.  13/7/22.  Breaking.  XJO just went positive.  Up 3.1 points.  We could have a positive day today.

13/7/22.  U.S. stocks fall overnight.

 Dow Jones -0.62%.  SP500 -0.92%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  SP500 -0.12%.  Banks -0.24%.

The three major indices are floating between the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.  A break out of that range will be important.

Coming up in America will be inflation data and the start of earnings season.  Among the large caps, JP Morgan is first cab off the ranks on Thursday.  These events could act as a catalyst for significant movement in the major indices.

SP500.

SP500 is in a short-term sideways consolidation where it has been for nearly three weeks.  Wait for a break-out from the range, 3770-3900.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to be under pressure.  That's bad news for Commodity based economies such as Australia.

Commodities Index -4.53%.  Energy -5.31%.  Base Metals -2.7%.  Agriculture -2.77%.  Gold -0.37%.

Iron Ore -3.1%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down a little, -0.2%.  It's hard to see it turning positive with such poor Commodities and a falling U.S. market.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and European Stock Markets

 11/6/22.  In Australia yesterday.

Yesterday, XJO fell -1.25%, or -87.7 points.  For the week, XJO was down -4.24%.  That's the worst weekly performance since April, 2020,  just after the bear market of March, 2020.

A 52-week low was set for the XJO at the end of January, 2022.  The close on that day was 6838.3.  XJO finished yesterday at 6932.  That's 93.7 points away.  That's feasible given the magnitude of falls this week.  That 52-week low could be a turning point. 

Stochastic is in its oversold level, RSI14 is at 35.95 which is oversold.  Another big fall coming on Monday could take RSI14 into vey oversold territory which might be a catalyst for an upside move.  Of course, very oversold can become more very oversold back in March 2020.

Australian Banks are showing some promise of a rebound.  Below is a chart for ANZ:

CCI and Money Flow Index both show striking positive divergences from the ANZ chart.  Those two indicators are often good leading indicators for a trend reversal.

Yesterday's candle is a huge "tombstone" candle.  The upper wick is especially long.  Tombstones are often seen at the end of a down-trend. 

RSI14 is extremely oversold at 21.43.  Rarely do we see a reading below 25 without a rebound.

Stochastic is in its oversold zone.  A move up would indicate a short-term buy signal.  Any move up could precipitate a short covering rally.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -2.73%.  SP500 +2.91%.  Nasdaq -3.52%.  Small Daps -2.49%.  Banks -4.34%.

SP500.

SP500 gapped down at the opening and just kept going.

Money Flow Index shows an extreme positive divergence from price.  So a bottom may be in place soon.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.98%.  Energy -0.92%.  Base Metals -1.79%.  Gold +1.34%.

Gold gapped down at the opening, but then reversed to the upside under heavy buying.    That could signal the end of the bearish market in Gold.

Gold.

The bullish engulfing candle last night in Gold took the Gold chart above the 200-Day MA, which often provides a "go" signal for gold bugs.  GLD is now at resistance of the 50-Day MA, but the current momentum seems likely to overcome that resistance.