13/7/23 Thursday Evening Finspiration Report

 ASX rises for third straight day.  Up +1.56%.

The traditional definition of a down-trend is lower highs and lower lows.  By that definition, XJO remains in a down-trend.  But we haven't yet seen a down-turn on the latest leg up, so we can't definitively say that Point3 is the top of this leg.  It can still go higher - so the jury remains out on this criterion.

By other definitions it is now in an short-term up-trend - or at least a counter-trend rally.

Using Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's, XJO is now in a counter-trend upside rally.

Monthly RSI:  53.42

Weekly RSI:  52.39

Daily RSI:  54.99

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

 NH-NL Cum has had a bullish kick to the upside off the 10-Day MA.  

 I'll go back to my initial hunch on Tuesday that the move up on Tuesday had such force as to indicate the end of the bearish sentiment.  The follow-through on Wed. and Thur. confirms that.

If we look at the XJO chart above, the action on Tuesday at PointC was different in kind from the sort of action we saw at PointA and PointB.

Now we could get a pull-back here after three very strong days.  But if we then get a rise above Point3 and don't break below PointC - we will have a new bullish rally - even by the traditional definition.

I'm sticking with that scenario unless we see a pull-back here and a break below Point C.

Best performing Sector today was again Property, up +3.18% today, followed by Info.Tech +2.27% and Discretionary +2.22%.  Those are all sectors sensitive to interest rates.  They are giving a nod to at least a pause in interest rate rises and probably a fall.  Good news.

Materials was also up more than +2% today.

Every Sector was up today, with the worst being  Health Care +0.86%, Communication Services +0.75% and Utilities +0.66%.  Health and Utilities are quintessential defensive sectors, so we are see a switch out of defensives into growth and cyclical sectors.