Finspiration Australia

 

 Sunday, 21 May, Weekly Report. Australian Market.

The week started poorly but the past couple of days saw an improvement as a "miracle" in the American debt ceiling talks seemed probable.

XJO Daily.

XJO finished up a moderate +0.31% for the week but remains in a sideways consolidation movement.

Weekly Performance of Sectors (plus Gold Miners, XJO and Bonds)

Five sectors up, five sectors down and one flat.  Information Technology +5.19% continued its good work from the previous week when it was up +1.97%.  XEJ, which can be quite volatile, was up +1.6% after being flat the previous week. 

The main defensive sectors suffered again this week.  XHJ down -0.69%, XSJ -1.08%, Utilities -0.22%.  Investors seem to be positioned for a risk-on market with a move out of defensives. 

Morningstar classifies the sectors into three groups, 

• Cyclicals - XMJ, XDJ, XXJ, XPJ.  These have strong correlations to the business cycle.  
• Sensitive - XTJ, XEJ, XNJ, XIJ.  These have moderate correlations to the business cycle.
• Defensives - XHJ, XUJ, XSJ.  These tend to have low correlations to the business cycle.

The "Sensitive" group did well this week with three sectors up and one flat.  XIJ was the best performing sector, followed by XEJ, while XTJ was the fourth best performer.  So three out of the four best performers this week came from the Sensitive group  

Momentum

The following data is a medium term measure of momentum obtained by subtracting Weekly RSI from Daily RSI.

The only sectors with positive upside momentum are Property (XPJ), Energy (XEJ), Telecomms (XTJ) and Information Technology (XIJ). 

XIJ has continued its dominance this week.  The sector is getting a little long in the tooth - if you hold strong stocks in that sector -  good for you.  It's probably too late now for non-holders to go chasing those stocks (e.g. XRO, WTC).

Besides XIJ, the big improvers this week were Energy (XEJ) and Financials (XXJ).  Strong stocks in those sectors might be worth a look in the next week. 

SP500 Daily Chart.

SP500 had a strong week this week with hopes that a solution to the Debt Ceiling impasse was probable.  SP500 was up +1.65% this week with most of that coming on Wednesday and Thursday (NY time).

The Index is in an Upsloping Bearish Wedge.  In my experience, these have a high probability of breaking to the down-side.

Yesterday, in my Saturday blog, I mentioned that the current up-trend could be a "sucker rally" hasNYSE and Nasdaq breadth hasn't improved in the same way as the Index.

That adds to the probability that the upscoping wedge will break to the down-side.

Take care.  If a debt ceiling agreement is reached - it might be a case of "sell the fact".

Stocks/Bonda Ratio.

The Stocks/Bonds Ratio Chart has climbed above the zero line so Stocks are currently out-performing Bonds - risk-on.  But,  it is usually best to wait until the 5-Day MA breaks above the 21-Day MA before feeling comfortable about a medium term rally in stocks. 

Conclusion.

XJO remains in a sideways consolidation.  Investors appear to be positioning for a risk-on market, with cycling out of Defensives Sectors and into Sensitive Sectors, and, to a lesser extent, into Cyclical Sectors.

SP500 may be setting up for a move to the downside after a strong week after improving Debt Ceiling talks.  If SP500 does drop, we will probably follow and could break to the downside of the current consolidation.

Stay safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 1.5.23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

ASX up modestly today after being well up early in the session.  XJO +0.35%.

XJO remains above its 8-Day EMA which is a positive, but remains under key horizontal resistance and triple bearish Supertrend lines.

eight out of eleven sectors were up.  Best Sector was Utilities +1.3%, followed by Energy +1%, Health +0.9% and Financials 0.8%.  Worst was Info Tech -1.4%, followed by Materials. -0.4%

Not much happening overseas. Europe shut for May Day and pre-market futures in America are also flat.

Finspiration Australia

       30/4/23.  Weekend Report -Week Ended 14/3523.

The Australian market eased back this week with the XJO down -0.29%.  In America, their market was strong.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  SP500 +0.87%.  Nasdaq +1.88%.  Why?  Simple.  This past week saw some of the big American tech companies report (e.g. META, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet).  Their reports were received enthusiastically.  Australia, unlike America, doesn't have a big tech sector in its market, so we didn't follow the Americans to the upside.

OK - Let's get into it.

Long-Term View.  XJO Monthly Chart.

In April,XJO finished up +1.83%.  

The index finished above its 8-Month EMA.  Hull MA13 is bullish and Supertrend (10/1) is bullish.

RSI is above 50 - bullish.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little.

Double MACD is trending sideways.

On Balance, the XJO finished bullish for the month.

Medium-Term View - XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO lost a little ground in the past two weeks (-0.48% and -0.29% after a strong second week (up +1.98%). 

RSI is its 20-Day MA - that's bullish.  DZ stochastic remains bullish but into its overbought zone.

The chart finished above its 8-Week EMA.  Hull MA13 remains bullish and Supertrend (10,1) is bullish.

Again, the only blemish on the chart is the Double MACD which hasn't had a positive cross-over.  It tends to lag bit.

Short-term View - XJO Daily Chart.

The short-term view turned bearish this week.  The index was under pressure the previous week when Hull MA13 turned down.  This week, the chart finished below its 8-Day EMA, Supertrend turned bearish and Hull MA13 remained bearish.  

RSI finished below its 20-Day MA and DZ Stochastic has given a sell signal.  Double MACD has had a bearish x-0ver and CCI has closed below its 8-Day EMA.

With both Weekly and Monthly charts both bullish - we are probably looking at a short-term pull-back in the ASX.  Wait to see if this turns bullish before re-entry.

Daily Chart with Standard Error Channel.

XJO shows at the bottom edge of the Standard Error Channel.  This is a statistical representation of normal distribution of an Index or Stock.  As XJO is at the lower edge - we can expect a move back up to the upside.  It won't necessarily happen - but the probability is high.

SP500 Daily

SP500 has turned bullish - and that will probably drag the XJO back into bullish territory.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

This week, ups and downs in the sectors were fairly even with a slight lean to the bearish side.

Four sectors were clearly up,  Property +2.07%m Telecommunications Services +1.7%, Information Technology +1.07%, Industrials +0.42%.  Financials finished just marginally on the positive side, +0.02%.

Five sectors were clearly down.  Materials -1.68%,  Utilities -0.95%, Health -0.58%, Energy -0.48%.  Discretionary fell marginally on the negative side, -004%.

Financials make up 25.8% of the ASX, Materials make up 23.6%.  Almost half the ASX is made up of those two sectors.  Extreme weakness in one or the other means the ASX will fall.  That happened this week with Materials down -1.68% while Financials was flat.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend. XIJ, XTJ, XPJ, XNJ.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XUJ.

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ,

Up then down - counter trend bearish pull-back.  XDJ, XHJ, XSJ, Gold, Composite Bonds (IAF).

Daily over-bought Momentum shows up in Telecoms - so it may not pay to go chasing strong stocks in that sector (e.g., Telstra).

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative is above all its MAs (5,10,21).  This is giving it a positive diversion from the ASX chart.  That's a positive development and suggests more upside in the XJO.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The past two weeks have favoured bonds over stocks - the ratio chart is falling.  

A negative x-over of the 5-Day MA below the 21-Day MA is usually a good sign of a return to bear market conditions.  That hasn't happened yet - but could happen if bonds continue to be favoured over stocks.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 56%, This Week 46%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 69%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 68%, This Week 61%.

4.  % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 43%, This Week 42%

We're seeing a mixed picture this week with long-term indicators remain in bullish territory while the shorter term indicators are in bearish territory.

The chart for stocks above the 200-Day MA has fallen back below its 5-Week MA but remains above its mid-line (50%).  That's in keeping with the pull-back we've seen so far this past couple of weeks.

Conclusion.

The past two weeks appear to be a pull-back in an on-going bullish market.  Watch for a resumption of the short-term upside trend this week.  No guarantees, but the probabilities lie to the upside.

     9/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had only one week so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +0.57% and remains within the range of the month of March.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

PPO is above 0 - that suggests a bullish trend.  It's been that way since Dec. 2020.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down - indecisive.

Schaff Trend Cycle is just below its "buy" line.  It wouldn't take much to turn that bullish.

This is only at the beginning of the month, so no decisions made on this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in a counter-trend rally against the big fall from early February to late March.  We need to see all three Supertrend Lines to turn yellow to presume that we have a new upside trend.  

DZ Stochastic has turned up but hasn't crossed above its "buy" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle remains under  its "do not buy" line.

PPO is marginally above its zero line.  We need to see it turn up from there to be confident of a new bullish trend.  

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +0.57% this week.

XJO was up eight days in a row until the negative day on Thursday. That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it appears to be faltering with three narrow-range doji candlesticks in a row.  That's occurring at a support-resistance line at 7226.  XJO finished the week at 7219 - marginally below horizontal resistance.

That Horizontal Resistance Line also coincides with the 50% retracement of the fall from early Feb. to late March.  Reversal of trends often occur at the 50% level.

DZ Stochastic has turned down but remains above its "sell" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle also remains above its "sell" line.  PPO is marginally above its zero line.

All that suggests that the coming week could be crucial to the future of the XJO.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

XMJ (Materials) was the dog in the major this week.  (Not quite an appropriate metaphor in the Easter Week).

XMJ was the only negative sector - down -2,72%,

Defensive Sectors were fairly strong this week:  XHJ +3.83%, XSJ +1.78%, XUJ + 1.78%, XTJ +1.68%.  

That suggests we've seen a rotation into defense against the usually strong XMJ.  It should be kept in mind that XMJ was up +7.01% in the previous week.  So it's not surprising that it had a fall this week.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

Some sectors were affected this week, XHJ moved into the bullish section.  Materials moved from "bullish counter trend rally" to "bearish".  Again - this emphasises the shift into defense from offence.

Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are bullish - both of those tend to be safe havens.

XJO remains in a "counter trend rally"

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  This week it moved back above its 10-Day MA.   That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The recent strong 8-Day bullish rally took the Stocks/Bonds Ratio into an upside movement.

Then, the past couple of days has seen it equivocate.  It nudged above the zero line, then fell back below the zero line.  The zero line is the demarcation between medium tern bullish and bearish.

Historical and Implied Volatility.

When Historical Volatility falls below Implied Volatility - the market is usually in a short-term bullish trend.  (HV is based on historical data of the XJO.  Implied Volatility is based on data from the VIX Index.)

When HV gets down to around the 5 level, a reversal in the XJO trend usually occurs.  HV is not far off that level.

(This is often a leading or co-incident indicator.)

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 40%, This Week 51%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 60%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA has stalled this week at 77%.  Medium term and long term the market improved.

Conclusion.

 

XJO has had a strong counter-trend rally but appears to be stalling at Horizontal Resistance.

I've outlined plenty of pluses and minuses, and maybes about the market this week.  Nothing convincing one way or the other.

The coming week may be crucial for the near-term future of the XJO.

XJO resumes trading on Tuesday.  America will resume on Monday so that could provide an indication of where our market will go.

Addendum.

Asian markets, which were not closed on Friday, were up, Japan +0.17%.  Korea +1.27%, Hong Kong +0.28%, Shanghai +0.45%.

In America on Friday, Non-Farm payrolls indicated a slowing in employment.  CNBC commented: 

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

That might give the American market hope for a slowing or pause in Federal Reserve interest rate rises and a boost to stock markets.

U.S. Futures were mildly positive on Friday.  Dow Jones +0.19%, SP500 +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

That's all relatively positive for America on Monday night - but anything can happen.  Wait for Tuesday morning.

    2/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 31/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of March finished with a flurry.  After being solidly down for three weeks, the final week of the month brought a rally.  XJO finished -1.11% for the month, but the long lower wick on this month's candle shows the extent of the rally in the past week.

The index finished above the 8-Month EMA.  Supertrend remains bullish and Hull MA13 remains bullish.  

  

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is on a "buy" signal from Dec. 22 and DZ RSI is on a "buy" signals from Nov. 22.  (These signals are advisory only, and can give false signals.)

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week above its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), and has bounced off support at the 6900 level (round figures).  

The last three candles are in a bullish configuration:  big down week, doji, big up week.

This week, the chart finished marginally above the 8-Week EMA but remains below the Supertrend and Hull MA13 remains bearish.  So, the market is not out of the woods yet.

DZ Stochastic still hasn't given a weekly "buy" signal.  DZ RSI has given a "buy" signal this week, that follows its "sell" signal back in early February.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO is up every day of the week.  It has finished above the 200-DMA and 8-DEMA. Supertrend is bullish and Hull MA13 is bullish.

Now for a cautionary note.  DZ Stochastic and DZ RSI are both in over-bought conditions.  A down-turn below the upper zones would be a short-term "sell" signal.  

Monthly and Daily Charts are in sync (bullish).  Weekly Chart is still a little hesitant with DZ Stochastic still not showing a "buy" signal, but DZ RSI is bullish.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

All eleven sectors (plus Gold Miners) were positive this week.  This week's rally was broad based.  

Composite Bonds (a safe haven) saw it lose a little ground, down -0.39%.

Best sector, by far, was XMJ (Materials) up a massive +7.01%.  XXJ (Financials), the largest sector in the market, was up strongly, +2.49%.  The two weakest sectors (relatively) were XHJ (Health) +1.08% and XPJ (Property) +1.02%.  

Sector Momentum.

The above chart shows Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's for eleven sectors plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XMJ, XEJ, XHJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

This is a picture of a very strong market with only one sector showing bearish momentum - Property.

All other sectors, plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are either in a bullish trend or a bullish counter trend rally.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It has remained below its 10-Day MA since 13 February.  On Friday, it had its first up day since 9 Feb.

Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , it's best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

A momentum chart for NewHighs-NewLows provides a more bullish picture:

This chart shows that the difference between New Highs and New Lows has been narrow since 21 March. The 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-DMA on 22 March - which provides a "buy"signal.  

X-Overs of the 5DMA of the 21DMA have provided good medium term "buy" and "sell" signals.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 28%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 29%, This Week 40%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 50%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week, it is now well into bullish territory.

Conclusion.

 

This week, the ASX was up breaking a series of seven down weeks in a row.  This week's rise was emphatic and suggests a phase shift in the market from bearish to bullish.  

Stay safe.

Finspiration Australia.

   26/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 24/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had over three weeks of trading so far in the Month of March.  So far, the month has been poor, with the XJO down -4.18%.  The index remains below the 8-Month EMA - bearish.

This chart gives very slow signals - as they only take relevance at the end of the month.  But currently, the chart is not looking flash hot.

  

Monthly RSI is at 49.74.  50 represents a dividing line between bullish and bearish.  

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week below its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), but it held support at the 6900 level (round figures).  That was set in the early days of January this year - so our market has gone nowhere in the ensuing three months.

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.57%.   We have now had seven weeks of weekly losses.  This week did show some buying during the week.  (See daily chart below)

Turmoil is largely due to fear about Bank solvency in the U.S. and Europe.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, the XJO attempted to climb above the 200-Day MA, but retreated on Thursday.  Friday saw plenty of intra-day buying (see long lower wick on Friday's candle) so we may see another attempt at breaking above the 200-Day MA.

XJO remains oversold with an RSI at 35.31.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Sectors were evenly split this week between positive and negative sectors.  Five sectors were positive and five sectors negative with one flat, XHJ.  The best performer was Discretionary +1.2%.  But that performance was smashed in the above chart by Gold Miners, +7.79%.  XGD is not a sector but an industry grouping within Materials (XMJ).  It is a good barometer of fear in the market, as Investors often see Gold (and Gold Miners) as a safe haven in times of turmoil.

The big damage this week was done by Financials -1.89%.  That's not a bad result given the turmoil in overseas markets.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It crossed below its 10-Day MA on 13 February.  Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , its best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is well below the zero level.  When Bonds are out-performing stocks its a sign to stay defensive.

The 5-Day MA and 21-Day MA provide a reasonable guide to the broad market.  When the 5-Day MA crosses below the 21-Day MA - stay defensive.  When the 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-Day go to offense.  The 5-Day MA crossed below the 21-Day MA on 9 February - sell signal.

The 5-Day MA crossed above the 21-Day MA on the 9 January - buy signal.

Here's the XJO with the cross-over dates pin-pointed:

The Bond Market is dominated almost exclusively by professionals while the Stock Market has a large proportion of retail investors (amateurs). 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 19%, This Week 28%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 30%, This Week 29%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 44%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week.  That's often indicative of a possible change in trend.

 

Conclusion.

 

The market has been down for seven weeks in a row.  Market news has been dominated by dismal news among banks, small and large in the U.S. and Europe.

Our market is showing some signs of finding a bottom this week, but we need much more evidence before feeling comfortable about the Stock market.

The Stock/Bonds Ratio Chart might provide timely warning of a reversal to the upside.  So far, however, it is still saying, "Stay Defensive".

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

     5/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 3/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've only had three days in March with the XJO up +0.35%.  In February, XJO was down -2.92%

So far, the Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, Supertrend (7/1.5).  Not much damage done yet.

  

Monthly RSI is at 54.31.  50 represents the dividing line between bullish and bearish.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO remains in an up-trend, with higher highs and higher lows.  In the past five days, XJO fallen -0.32%.  The previous week it was down -0.54%.  So down side over the past two weeks has been modest.

This week saw good buying during the week to erase most of the early losses.

XJO began to fall four weeks ago at a major resistance level.  

8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 turned turned down, which is bearish. Supertrend continues to provide support this week.  Events overnight on Friday in America could see a break to the upside.   

Weekly RSI is at 54.2 - bullish but falling.  

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO was behind the eight-ball with a big fall on Monday.  It has been up three of the past four days.

My shortest term moving average is the Hull MA13.  It turned down on the 9 Feb.  It has now turned up, so the down-trend could be ending.

I'd like to see the index finish above the 8-Day EMA (grey line) before feeling confident that the short-term trend has turned up.  That seems likely to occur on Monday, given events in the U.S. on Friday night.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Breadth was poor this week, with only two sectors pushing to the upside - but those two sectors did extremely well, Energy +5.19% and Materials +3.98%.

Financials, the biggest sector in the ASX, was down heavily -2.88%.  It has been doing very poorly in recent times, but could be coming to the end of its pull-back.

On the Thursday, XXJ fell heavily taking its RSI down to 26.6.  We rarely see the RSI for XXJ get below 30 before we get some sort of a rebound.  Watch XXJ on Monday for some good news for our market.

Gold Miners.

XGD (Gold Miners) was one of the stand-outs this week, up +6.42% after being down five weeks in a row.  The bullish engulfing candle for this week suggests more upside for the Gold Miners.  It has also bounced off support of the 50-Week MA - another bullish sign.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL pulled to the upside this week, with the 3-Day MA rising sharply.  The 3-Day MA needs to get back above the 20-Day MA for long-term investors to feel comfortable about their investments.  Until that happens, stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is below the zero level.

This is a reasonable picture of bullish and bearish status of the market.  It's probably a good idea for medium term investors to remain bearish on stocks while this chart remains below zero.  If you're a bit cheeky, you might go long if the chart rises above the 10-Day MA.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 44%, This Week 40%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 56%, This Week 55%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 61%.

The longer term measures remain above the 50% mark.  So the market is not in bad shape.  Short-term I'd like to see Stocks above 10-DMA move back above 50%.

SP500.

I mentioned, early in this report, the good results in America on Friday.  Here's the SP500 chart.

The past two sessions on the SP500 have seen strong upside moves.    Friday saw a rise of +1.61%.  That triggered a number of bullish indicators.  

Thursday saw the SP500 bounce strongly off the 200-Day MA - that's a bullish indicator.  Friday saw the index cross above the 8-Day EMA, and the Supertrend changed from blue to yellow - bullish.  Hull MA13 has turned up - bullish.

This looks like the start of a good short-term upside rally.

 

Conclusion.

 

A lot of jig-saw pieces are falling into place for our market in the coming week.  SP500 has turned short-term bullish and we should follow suit on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 1/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Night Report.

XJO was flat today.

The chart candles show two "inside babies".  Two small candles well within the range of Monday's wide range candle.  That's usually a bullish sign but needs confirmation of a big upside day.

Stochastic (bottom panel) has been in the oversold section below 20 for over three weeks.  That's plenty of time to elapse before a move to the upside.

Despite the flat finish there was plenty of action today.  The market was well down by 11.00 a.m. but then the GDP figures came out - which were disappointing.  Bad news was good news - so the market rebounded - hoping for some easing of interest rate rises.

Energy was up +1.6% today, but that was eclipsed by Materials, up +2.3%.

They were the only two sectors positive today.  Telecoms was worst -2.3%.  Financials didn't fare well, down -1%.

Let's see if we get a good upside move tomorrow.