Finspiration Australia.

 28/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks up strongly.  Worries about banks went out the door with Tech surging strongly. AMAZON falls 2% after its report coming after the closing bell.

Dow Jones +1.57%.  SP500 +1.96%.  Nasdaq +2.43%.  Mid Caps +1.53%.  Small Caps +1.52%.  Banks +1.54%.

SP500

That's a big bullish candle on the SP500 and the index finished above the 8-DEMA and Supertrend turned bullish.  Those are usually reliable early buy signals.  But anything can happen in reporting season.

Amazon is down in extended trading after hours.  SNAP is now down -17% and Pinterest down -13%.  Tread warily.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.13%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.37%.  Agriculture -0.19%.  Gold +0.01%.

BHP up +1.2% overnight in New York.  Rio up +1.21%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.75%, so we should have a good start to today's trading in Australia.

Finspiration Australia.

 27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

SP500.

Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

BHP and Rio both up overnight.

Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.

Finspiration Australia.

 12/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S markets mixed overnight.  Rio up >5% in London.

Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 -0.00%.  Nasdaq -40%.  The front-line troops of the market (Mid Caps and Small Caps) were both positive.  Mid Caps +0.89%.  Small Caps +0.73%.  Banks were also positive, +1.28%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced off the 8-Day EMA, - that's a positive.  In the very short-term, however, Hull MA13 has turned down.  Watch for direction in the next session as today's candle was a doji - indecision.

U.S. is coming up to important inflation data which will likely be market moving.

SP500 remains in an up-trend - above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture +0.68%.  Gold +0.63%.

ASX Futures point to a positive opening this morning, +0.25%.

We should have another positive day today.

Finspiration Australia.

 5/4/23.  Australian market finishes flat today.

XJO finished just up today, +0.02%.

Today's candle is a doji which is often an ominous signal coming at the top of an up-trend.

Today was the eighth day to the upside.  That's getting a bit old for a short-term up-trend.  Of course, it can go higher, but the probabilities now lie to the downside.

Despite the marginal upside finish, breadth was good with nine out of eleven sectors finishing in positive territory.

Negative sectors today were in the resources:  XMJ (Materials) -0.6% and XEJ (Energy) -0.6%.

Amongst the large cap stocks today, BHP -1.5% and Rio -0.9% were the worst performers.

Best performer was Telecommunications +0.8%.  Three sectors recorded rises of +0.7%: XIJ, XNJ and XHJ.  Those three sectors are now sitting at strong overhead resistance - adding weight to the idea that we may see a pull-back.

Finspiration Australia.

 4/4/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Reserve Bank Interest Rate Day - A Fizzer?

XJO finished higher today - up just +0.18%.

Interest Rate Day often produces some sharp movements in the market - but not today.  After the "No Change" announcement, XJO did move higher but not much, up 14 points or +0.19%.  That's not a lot compared to what it can do on IRD.

Notice how the XJO moved up in the five minutes before the interest rate announcement.  Somebody (or somebodies) seems to have pre-empted the IR announcement.  I suspect it occurred while there was some unseen selling going on in the background - two bob each way.  If it goes down, the punter/s exits the buy side and let the sell side cascade down.  If it goes up - exit the sell side and enjoy the ride.  Remember that HFT Algorithms react in a milli-second, and large institutions act within one second.  No retail trader can hope to compete in these sudden changes in direction.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  A big hit was taken by XMJ (Materials), down -0.9%.  BHP, the largest stock in that sector, was down -2.2% today.

Best sector was Energy, up +1.3%.  It got a push higher from oil price rises overnight - as a result of cuts by OPEC to their output.

Here's the XMJ Chart:

XMJ finished the day below the Short-Term Line (3-DEMA) but remains above the 8DEMA (dashed line).  A finish below that would be short-term bearish.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

10/8/22.  Overnight U.S. stocks fall.  Tech hard hit.

Dow Jones -0.19%.  SP500 -0.42%.  Nasdaq -1.19%.  Small Caps -1.44%.  Banks +0.45%.

European stocks also fell with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.11%.

SP500.

The modest fall in the SP500 keeps it in short-term and medium-term up-trends.  The longer term remains in doubt with the Index below the 200-Day MA.

The negative divergence on CCI suggests further falls down from the Horizontal Retracement Zone, 50%-61.8% of the fall earlier this year.

Plenty of near-by support may cushion any further falls.

Tonight in the U.S., CPI data is released.  If inflation ticks higher, the Fed. may be more aggressive in its next interest rate rise.

Commodities.  Out of step with Stocks.

Commodities Index +0.93%.  Energy +0.95%.  Base Metals +1.42% and up to the 50-Day MA, Agriculture +0.4%.  Gold tipped above its 50-Day MA, up +0.31%.  Expect more upside in Gold.

Iron Ore -1.5%.  Thermal Coal +3.6%.

Lots of plusses and minuses for Australia in the overnight data.  Stronger base metals, Energy and Banks should limit losses today in Australia.

After 15 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.47%.  BHP is flat +0.05%, but Rio has risen +0.57%.  

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets

 Overnight.

NYSE closed overnight.

In Europe stocks rose strongly with EuroStoxx600 up +1%.  German DAX +1.06%.  Bank stocks up about +3%.  

DAX remains in non-trending mode with both Span A and Span B of the Kumo Cloud parallel to each other.  

Commodities.

Brent Crude Oil +0.9%.  Copper -0.3%.  Iron Ore -2.6%.  

In the U.K. BHP fell -1.6% and Rio -1%.  Those figures aren't too bad as in Australia yesterday BHP fell -5.3% and Rio -5.06%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +47 points or +0.7%.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO down -0.64%, so our market on present indications should gain back most of yesterday's losses.

Finspiration Australia. Technical Analysis of Australian and International Stock Markets.

 20/4/22.  Overnight.  U.S. equities up strongly.

Dow Jones +1.45%.  SP500 +1.61%.  Nasdaq +1.9%.  Small Caps +1.9%.  Banks +2.18%.

SP500.

Despite last night's strong rise, SPX remains in a consolidation pattern.  Some indicators are bullish, some suggest plenty of upside resistance just overhead.  A further break to the upside would overcome the negatives.

Commodities.

I suggested yesterday that further upside in Energy looked in doubt.  Last night, Energy fell heavily, down -3.48%, which took the Commodities Index down with it, DBC -2.57%.  Base Metals also suffered, DBB -1.22%.  Gold -1.51%.

Iron Ore -1.1%.

Overnight Oz Futures up +0.6%.  That should ensure a strong start to the day.

Rio has announced new production results for the first quarter.  Pre-market price for Rio shows a positive expectation for the opening, but BHP is flat, affected by those poor metals and energy prices overnight.  

KKR has made a non-binding offer for Ramsay Health Care of $88 per share.  In the pre-market, RHC is up nearly 25%.  That will have a big effect of the Health Sector (XHJ).

According to Jim Cramer, from CNBC's Mad Money, the U.S. market had no business rising last night with so many negatives against it.  Read his comments here on why it did.

Comments above are my personal ideas and remain probabilistic and contingent.  Do your own research.

Stock Market Analysis.

 Sat. 11/12/21.  SP500 hits new record.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.6%.  SP500 +0.95%.  Nasdaq +0.73%. Small Caps +0.02%.  Banks -0.2%

SP500:

SP500 reversed the bearish candle set on Thursday, broke above resistance and set a new closing record.  That's a bullish event.  Expect more upside.

Commodities:

Commodity Index +1.14%.  Energy +1.95%.  Base Metals -0.52%.  Gold +0.42%.

VIX.

VIX finished at 18.69.  Traditionally, 20 is considered the marker between bullish and bearish for the stock market.  VIX is now giving a bullish signal confirming the signal from the SP500.

BHP was up in the US, but down in little in the UK.  RIO had similar results to BHP, up in the US, down in UK.  Both stocks remain in up-trends.  Westpac and Woodside were both up in the U.S.

Our market should see a bounce off the 50-Day MA on Monday.