24/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Friday - felt like Armageddon.  XJO down,  Dow down, Nasdaq down, Europe down, Commodities down.

Armageddon - that is - if you're a normal person - but those dark villains on the "short" side (and I'm not talking about Friends of Snow White or Santa's Little Helpers) were chugging Dom Perignon out of crystal slippers previously worn by Princess Beatrice, who is by now sleeping rough in Piccadilly Circus.

XJO down -1.34%.

That takes the XJO down to just below the 200-Day MA - where it's been a couple of times recently - and then recovered.  

Well - anything is possible in this crazy stock market world, but this looks very different from those two previous efforts of flirting with the 200-Day MA.  

In the U.S. last night:

Dow Jones -0.65%.  SP500 -0.77%.  Nasdaq -1.01%.  Mid Caps -1.16%.  Small Caps -1.65%.  Banks -1.08%.

SP500.

SP500 is nowhere near as dire as the XJO.  It is way above the 200-Day MA.

As I've noted in the past, XJO decoupled from the American market a long time ago - that's due to the out-sized influence of Technology on the U.S. market - whereas, the Australian Tech sector has a small impact on our market.  The Oz market is more influenced by the resources sector which depend on China and Japan for markets.

Still, SP500 is showing weekness.  The three indicators in the lower panels are all on sell signals.

Two out of three super-trend lines have turned bearish.  But, the SP500 is back to the mid-line of the Andrew's Pitchfork, which suggests it might find support at that level.  We shall see.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.08%.  Energy -0.26%.  Base Metals -1.96%.  Agriculture -1.91%.  Gold +0.28%.

Those Energy and Base Metals prices provide little joy for our resources sectors.

In Sydney, SFE Futures for ASX200 is down -0.23%, which suggests a weak opening on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 13/5/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report.

Australia was flat on Friday, in the U.S. major indices down a little.

XJO

XJO was up just +0.07% on Friday - the fourth day of little movement in the indices.

The Supertrend Lines (two yellow and one blue) indicate a non-trending market.

Daunt DZ Stochastic is bullish, but Daily RSI remains below its 20-Day MA.  Again this is typical of a non-trending market.

A move in the Supertrends to all yellow and a move by the RSI above its 20-Day MA would be bullish.

Time to be patient.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 -0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.35%.  Mid Caps -0.02%.  Small Caps -0.29%.  Banks -0.79%.

Not much happening in the U.S. where the regional banks are still cause for some concern.

SP500.

The SP500, like the XJO, shows a non-trending market.

Wait.

Commodities.

The Commodities don't hold much joy for Australian stocks, although Base Metals seems to be stabilising after Thursday's big drop.

Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.6%.  Base Metals +0.66%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.17%.

It looks like more of nothing much for our market on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 29/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Australia.

Yesterday, ASX up modestly.

Overnight in the U.S.  Another strong period for stocks.

XJO.

On Friday, XJO started well after a strong session on Wall Street but faded just before noon.  The afternoon session saw a little strength, but not enough to push the index back above the 8-Day EMA.

Indicators remain on sell signals.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.8%,  SP500 +0.83%.  Nasdaq +0.69%.  Mid Caps +0.93%.  Small Caps +1%.  Banks 1.49%

Nasdaq was up +1.89% for the week which had big tech companies reporting.  SP500 up +0.87%.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  XJO was down -0.29% for the week.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish after a strong day on Thursday.  

Indicators are showing negative divergences which may dissipate if further upside is seen.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.92%.  Base Metals +0.31%.  Agriculture -0.14%.  Golds flat +0.03%

Finspiration Australia.

 27/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Industrials down, Tech up.  Meta up 12% after hours.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -0.47%.  Mid Caps -0.86%.  Small Caps -0.9%.  Banks -1%.

Breadth was poor with only one of eleven sectors positive, that was Technology.

SP500.

Triple Supertrend crossovers signal a bearish down-trend.  All indicators confirm the signal.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.52%.  Energy -2.74%.  Base Metals +0.47%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.54%.

BHP and Rio both up overnight.

Sydney ASX Futures -0.22%.

Finspirtion Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight:  US finishes with little change.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

SP500.

SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

Continue to watch for a downside break.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.

Finspiration Australia.

15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.

XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

SP500.

Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

(I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)

Finspiration Australia.

 12/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S markets mixed overnight.  Rio up >5% in London.

Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 -0.00%.  Nasdaq -40%.  The front-line troops of the market (Mid Caps and Small Caps) were both positive.  Mid Caps +0.89%.  Small Caps +0.73%.  Banks were also positive, +1.28%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced off the 8-Day EMA, - that's a positive.  In the very short-term, however, Hull MA13 has turned down.  Watch for direction in the next session as today's candle was a doji - indecision.

U.S. is coming up to important inflation data which will likely be market moving.

SP500 remains in an up-trend - above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture +0.68%.  Gold +0.63%.

ASX Futures point to a positive opening this morning, +0.25%.

We should have another positive day today.

Finspiration Australia.

 11/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq flat -0.03%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +0.82%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  The medium term trend remains up.  

The past two days show intra-day buying.

Stay with the up-trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy flat +0.09%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.74%.

Although Base Metals finished to the down-side, there was a lot of intra-day buying which augurs well for our miners today.

Bitcoin.

BTC has a big rise last night, up +4.64% and has broken upwards from its long side-ways consolidation.

The crypto remains in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.

Finspiration Australia.

 25/3/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday - XJO down marginally after strong intra-day buying.

Last night - U.S. stocks finish positive.

XJO Friday:

XJO down -0.2% yesterday.  The long lower wick on yesterday's candle indicates strong intra-day buying.

The only positive on the chart is the Hull MA13 which is the shortest MA I use.  

XJO remains below the 200-Day MA.  It has been rejected by the 10-Day MA and the first line of the triple Supertrends.  We need to see better than that to enter for a trade.

Overnight in the U.S.  Major indices finish up modestly.  Regional Banks have a big rise.

Dow Jones +0.41%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.31%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Regional Banks +3.03%.  Despite that big rise in Region Banks, the chart remains mired at the low end of its big down-trend.

SP500.

SP500 is doing better than Australia's XJO.  It finished last night above its 200-Day MA and above all three of the triple Supertrends.  

Hull MA13 is positive and the Index finished above the 10-Day MA.

The index remains locked between the 50-Day MA and the 200-Day MA.  A move above the 50-Day MA would be bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals flat -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.53%.  Gold -1.13%.

The upside movements in the American Indices suggest that the Australian market will be up on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.41%.  The Hull MA13 has turned down which is a short-term negative signal.

Longer term, BTC remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA and triple Supertrends.

Finspiration Australia.

 8/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Morning Report.

Powell's comments sink U.S. Stocks.  Commodities down

Dow Jones -1.72%.  SP500 -1.53%.  Nasdaq -1.25%.  Small Caps  -1.0%.  Banks -3.87%.

SP500.

Selling was consistent throughout the session.  The three-day candle stick pattern is bearish after failing at the 20-Day MA.  

Last night's session broke below the 8-Day EMA and the 50-Day MA.

Support remains with the Supertrend.  Tonight's action looks crucial.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.05%.  Energy -2.8%.  Base Metals -2.46%.  Agriculture -0.15%.  Gold -1.75%.

After one hour of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.9%.  

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -1.59%.  It remains below the 50-Day MA and 8Day EMA.  Possible support zone is shown by the shaded rectangle.

Finspiration Australia

        10/2/2023.  Finspiration Friday Morning Report.

U.S. stocks down, Energy down, Base Metals flat, Gold down.

Dow Jones -0.73%.  SP500 -0.88%.  Nasdaq -1.02%.  Small Caps -1.3%.  Banks -1.5%.

SP500.

Last night negates the big gains from Tuesday.  SP500 has broken below short-term support of the 8-Day EMA and Hull MA has turned down.  Those are short-term bearish events.  Supertrend remains bullish.  

Plenty of support remains below to soften any further downside moves.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.79%.  Energy -1.31%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture -0.65%.  Gold -0.79%.

Overnight Oz Futures down -0.4%.  That should mean a poor start to today's trading.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down -4.3% overnight.

BTC broke from its consolidation zone to the downside.  The short-term trend is now down.  Expect support around 21,000 (round figures).

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. +Bitcoin.

1/10/22/. American stocks continue to tumble.

 Dow Jones -1.71%.  SP500 -1.51%.  Nasdaq -1.51%.  Small Caps -0.65%.  Banks -0.84%.

SP500.

SP500 is again extremely oversold with an RSI at 28.47 but showing a small positive divergence.

Stochastic remains in its oversold zone.  While it remains in that oversold zone, it is best to resist the temptation to re-enter the market.

A big positive divergence remains on MACD Histogram, that continues to suggest that SP500 is reaching for a bottom and a sustained counter-trend rally is possible.

Commodities.

Commodities continue to suffer along with stocks.  Commodities Index -1.24%.  Energy -1.74%.  Base Metals -2.08%.  Agriculture -0.65%.  Gold flat +0.01%.  The long upper wick on the Gold candle suggests intra-day selling after Gold tested the 20-Day MA.  Not a good sign for Gold.

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO fell heavily yesterday -1.23%.  It remains in a consolidation pattern after hitting the lower edge of the expanding wedge on Monday.  Until XJO breaks above the upper edge of the expanding wedge, it is best to stay on the sidelines.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is up +0.19% in low conviction trading.  The chart has formed a "saucepan" bottom which could lead to a counter-trend rally.  Just don't expect too much from it.