Finspiration Australia.

15/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report. 

XJO up on Friday.  Dow Jones down on Friday night.

XJO, after starting on the down-side on Friday, finished on the high-side, up +0.51%.  It remains stalled at horizontal resistance where it's been for the past three days.

The trend remains up - so stay with the trend until we see definite signs of a pull-back.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.42%.  SP500 -0.21%.  Nasdaq -0.36%.  Mid Caps -0.52%.  Small Caps -0.79%.  Banks +1.09%.

SP500.

Last night's candle was a "doji" indicating indecision.

SP500 is stalling at horizontal resistance and CCI is showing negative divergence.

DZ Stochastic has marginally broken below its upper Zone line - the first suggestion of a "sell" signal.  This needs confirmation by a move by RSI below its middle line - its 20-Day MA.

Commodities.

Not much movement in Commodities except for Gold.

Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.09%.  Base Metals +0.1%.  Agriculture +0.19%.  Gold -1.77%.

The Gold chart has left and "evening star" doji candle-stick from Thursday night.  That's often a sign of a pull-back.  But the chart has been left sitting on the 20-Day MA - so it could bounce here.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP was down -1.79% and Rio was down -1.89%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin in USD was up +0.63% last night and remains bullish.

(I don't have an up-to-date chart yet, but will put one up when it becomes availble.)

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets + BITCOIN

21/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks slip ahead of Fed announcement.

 Dow Jones -1.01%.  SP500 -1.13%.  Nasdaq -0.95%.  Small Caps -1.24%.  Banks -1.5%.

European stocks were down for the sixth day straight.  STOXX 600 -1.1%.

SP500.

 

SP500 remains bearish but consolidating at its lows.  It is poised for an upside move with the Stochastic down in the oversold zone.  

The expected interest rate rise which will be announced tonight (Oz time) has likely been priced into the market.  The last three rises saw the SP500 go to the upside after the announcement, so there seems no reason to believe that the same will happen tonight.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.96%.  Base Metals -0.37%.  Agriculture +1.32%.  Gold -0.57%.

After 5 minutes of trading, XJO has followed the U.S. to the down side.  XJO -0.6%.  It will probably see some more downside before we get a bounce.

BITCOIN.

Bitcoin has continued to slide on a closing basis but remains above Monday's low.

It is difficult to see a non-revenue producing asset like Bitcoin to turn bullish in an era of rising interest rates, but the "whales" that control the Bitcoin price may have other ideas.

The current long-term consolidation in Bitcoin still looks to me like Accumulation rather than Distribution, but we have to see BTC get above the mid-August high to feel sure about that idea.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets. +BITCOIN.

Weekly Wrap for Bitcoin.

Monthly Chart:

 The long term (monthly) chart of Bitcoin has come back down to the top set back in late 2017.  It's not surprising that Bitcoin is consolidating at this very important level.

It is also conspicuous that no sudden rebound has occurred.  That doesn't mean it can't.  But - at this stage, consolidations at the low suggest more down side.

Weekly Chart.

BTC is an unusually long sideways consolidation.  It remains bearish, however, with two Supertrend lines both blue (bearish).

It is looking remarkably like a Wickoff Consolidation rather than a Distribution.  So we could see a strong upside move from here.

Daily Chart.

MACD Histogram is positive.  That's a sign that downside momentum is easing.

RSI is at 44.57, still shy of the 50 level needed for a positive reading.

Stochastic is close to a +ve cross-over.

If all three go +ve, expect a tradable medium-term rally.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis for Australian and International Stock Markets.

 13/9/22.  Overnight in America, stocks continue to run higher for fourth day.

Dow Jones +0.71%.  SP500 +1.05%.  Nasdaq +1.27%.  Small Caps +1.28%.  Banks +0.83%.

European stocks also rose strongly, with European STOXX 600 up +1.8%.

SP500.

Short-term, SP500 continues to be bullish, but now facing some resistance from a congestion zone to its left and the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.  Expect some consolidation here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.38%.  Energy +1.47%.  Base Metals +1.05%.  Agriculture +0.69%.  Gold +0.51%.

Iron Ore -0.6%.  Thermal Coal +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.7%.  

Expect another solid day for the ASX today on the back of higher overseas stocks and commodities.

BITCOIN.

Since early June, 2022, Bitcoin has been in a long sideways consolidation within a longer down trend.

It remains below the Kumo Cloud and well below its 200-Day MA.  Until resistance of those two indicators, it is best to consider any rally to be a counter-trend rally in an ongoing bear market.

Finspiration Australia. Chart Analysis of the Australian and International Stock Markets.

 Special Edition for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has formed a large double top.  Standard Measure Rule suggests Bitcoin will go below zero.  That seems a bit extreme.  (Understatement of the year.). 5000 seems like a reasonable target based on support levels.