Finspiration Australia

       30/4/23.  Weekend Report -Week Ended 14/3523.

The Australian market eased back this week with the XJO down -0.29%.  In America, their market was strong.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  SP500 +0.87%.  Nasdaq +1.88%.  Why?  Simple.  This past week saw some of the big American tech companies report (e.g. META, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet).  Their reports were received enthusiastically.  Australia, unlike America, doesn't have a big tech sector in its market, so we didn't follow the Americans to the upside.

OK - Let's get into it.

Long-Term View.  XJO Monthly Chart.

In April,XJO finished up +1.83%.  

The index finished above its 8-Month EMA.  Hull MA13 is bullish and Supertrend (10/1) is bullish.

RSI is above 50 - bullish.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little.

Double MACD is trending sideways.

On Balance, the XJO finished bullish for the month.

Medium-Term View - XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO lost a little ground in the past two weeks (-0.48% and -0.29% after a strong second week (up +1.98%). 

RSI is its 20-Day MA - that's bullish.  DZ stochastic remains bullish but into its overbought zone.

The chart finished above its 8-Week EMA.  Hull MA13 remains bullish and Supertrend (10,1) is bullish.

Again, the only blemish on the chart is the Double MACD which hasn't had a positive cross-over.  It tends to lag bit.

Short-term View - XJO Daily Chart.

The short-term view turned bearish this week.  The index was under pressure the previous week when Hull MA13 turned down.  This week, the chart finished below its 8-Day EMA, Supertrend turned bearish and Hull MA13 remained bearish.  

RSI finished below its 20-Day MA and DZ Stochastic has given a sell signal.  Double MACD has had a bearish x-0ver and CCI has closed below its 8-Day EMA.

With both Weekly and Monthly charts both bullish - we are probably looking at a short-term pull-back in the ASX.  Wait to see if this turns bullish before re-entry.

Daily Chart with Standard Error Channel.

XJO shows at the bottom edge of the Standard Error Channel.  This is a statistical representation of normal distribution of an Index or Stock.  As XJO is at the lower edge - we can expect a move back up to the upside.  It won't necessarily happen - but the probability is high.

SP500 Daily

SP500 has turned bullish - and that will probably drag the XJO back into bullish territory.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

This week, ups and downs in the sectors were fairly even with a slight lean to the bearish side.

Four sectors were clearly up,  Property +2.07%m Telecommunications Services +1.7%, Information Technology +1.07%, Industrials +0.42%.  Financials finished just marginally on the positive side, +0.02%.

Five sectors were clearly down.  Materials -1.68%,  Utilities -0.95%, Health -0.58%, Energy -0.48%.  Discretionary fell marginally on the negative side, -004%.

Financials make up 25.8% of the ASX, Materials make up 23.6%.  Almost half the ASX is made up of those two sectors.  Extreme weakness in one or the other means the ASX will fall.  That happened this week with Materials down -1.68% while Financials was flat.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend. XIJ, XTJ, XPJ, XNJ.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XUJ.

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ,

Up then down - counter trend bearish pull-back.  XDJ, XHJ, XSJ, Gold, Composite Bonds (IAF).

Daily over-bought Momentum shows up in Telecoms - so it may not pay to go chasing strong stocks in that sector (e.g., Telstra).

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative is above all its MAs (5,10,21).  This is giving it a positive diversion from the ASX chart.  That's a positive development and suggests more upside in the XJO.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The past two weeks have favoured bonds over stocks - the ratio chart is falling.  

A negative x-over of the 5-Day MA below the 21-Day MA is usually a good sign of a return to bear market conditions.  That hasn't happened yet - but could happen if bonds continue to be favoured over stocks.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 56%, This Week 46%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 69%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 68%, This Week 61%.

4.  % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 43%, This Week 42%

We're seeing a mixed picture this week with long-term indicators remain in bullish territory while the shorter term indicators are in bearish territory.

The chart for stocks above the 200-Day MA has fallen back below its 5-Week MA but remains above its mid-line (50%).  That's in keeping with the pull-back we've seen so far this past couple of weeks.

Conclusion.

The past two weeks appear to be a pull-back in an on-going bullish market.  Watch for a resumption of the short-term upside trend this week.  No guarantees, but the probabilities lie to the upside.

Finspiration Australia.

 14/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. records another solid upside move.

Dow Jones +1.14%.  SP500 +1.33%.  Nasdaq +1.99%.  Mid Caps +0.69%.  Small Caps +0.84%.  Banks +0.73%.

SP500.

The SP500 remains in a strong upside rally, but the negative divergence on CCI suggests it may be on its last legs.

SP500 had a good run, but it might be too late to start buying into this rally now.  I'll be waiting on a pull-back.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.00%.  Energy -0.74%.  Base Metals +1.84%.  Agriculture -0.48%.  Gold +1.35&.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down marginally -.03%, it's never a good sign when the Oz market starts weak after a strong night on Wall Street.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin continues on its merry (bullish) way, up last night +1.68%.  It has successfully tested major horizontal support/resistance.  I'd expect more upside.

Finspiration Australia

12/4/23.  Bitcoin Sinspiration Report.

 Bitcoin up again last night, +4.64%.

The chart remains bullish - stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

 11/4/23  Tuesday Evening Inspiration Report.

XJO is in a strong upside trend.  Today, XJO was up +1.26% despite a lack lustre lead from the U.S. last night.

XJO jumped up this morning away from its recent short-term consolidation.  It finished well above its 50-Day MA.  

The three Supertrend lines are all strongly bullish.

After such a strong day we might see some settling back tomorrow.  

Next resistance level is at 7365, support at 7226.  XJO finished today at 7310.

Both DZ Stochastic and RSI confirm the uptrend.  RSI is at 62.32 - so there's more room to move before it gets into overbought territory.

Until otherwise indicated stay with the trend.

Stay safe.

     9/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had only one week so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +0.57% and remains within the range of the month of March.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

PPO is above 0 - that suggests a bullish trend.  It's been that way since Dec. 2020.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down - indecisive.

Schaff Trend Cycle is just below its "buy" line.  It wouldn't take much to turn that bullish.

This is only at the beginning of the month, so no decisions made on this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in a counter-trend rally against the big fall from early February to late March.  We need to see all three Supertrend Lines to turn yellow to presume that we have a new upside trend.  

DZ Stochastic has turned up but hasn't crossed above its "buy" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle remains under  its "do not buy" line.

PPO is marginally above its zero line.  We need to see it turn up from there to be confident of a new bullish trend.  

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +0.57% this week.

XJO was up eight days in a row until the negative day on Thursday. That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it appears to be faltering with three narrow-range doji candlesticks in a row.  That's occurring at a support-resistance line at 7226.  XJO finished the week at 7219 - marginally below horizontal resistance.

That Horizontal Resistance Line also coincides with the 50% retracement of the fall from early Feb. to late March.  Reversal of trends often occur at the 50% level.

DZ Stochastic has turned down but remains above its "sell" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle also remains above its "sell" line.  PPO is marginally above its zero line.

All that suggests that the coming week could be crucial to the future of the XJO.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

XMJ (Materials) was the dog in the major this week.  (Not quite an appropriate metaphor in the Easter Week).

XMJ was the only negative sector - down -2,72%,

Defensive Sectors were fairly strong this week:  XHJ +3.83%, XSJ +1.78%, XUJ + 1.78%, XTJ +1.68%.  

That suggests we've seen a rotation into defense against the usually strong XMJ.  It should be kept in mind that XMJ was up +7.01% in the previous week.  So it's not surprising that it had a fall this week.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

Some sectors were affected this week, XHJ moved into the bullish section.  Materials moved from "bullish counter trend rally" to "bearish".  Again - this emphasises the shift into defense from offence.

Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are bullish - both of those tend to be safe havens.

XJO remains in a "counter trend rally"

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  This week it moved back above its 10-Day MA.   That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The recent strong 8-Day bullish rally took the Stocks/Bonds Ratio into an upside movement.

Then, the past couple of days has seen it equivocate.  It nudged above the zero line, then fell back below the zero line.  The zero line is the demarcation between medium tern bullish and bearish.

Historical and Implied Volatility.

When Historical Volatility falls below Implied Volatility - the market is usually in a short-term bullish trend.  (HV is based on historical data of the XJO.  Implied Volatility is based on data from the VIX Index.)

When HV gets down to around the 5 level, a reversal in the XJO trend usually occurs.  HV is not far off that level.

(This is often a leading or co-incident indicator.)

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 40%, This Week 51%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 60%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA has stalled this week at 77%.  Medium term and long term the market improved.

Conclusion.

 

XJO has had a strong counter-trend rally but appears to be stalling at Horizontal Resistance.

I've outlined plenty of pluses and minuses, and maybes about the market this week.  Nothing convincing one way or the other.

The coming week may be crucial for the near-term future of the XJO.

XJO resumes trading on Tuesday.  America will resume on Monday so that could provide an indication of where our market will go.

Addendum.

Asian markets, which were not closed on Friday, were up, Japan +0.17%.  Korea +1.27%, Hong Kong +0.28%, Shanghai +0.45%.

In America on Friday, Non-Farm payrolls indicated a slowing in employment.  CNBC commented: 

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

That might give the American market hope for a slowing or pause in Federal Reserve interest rate rises and a boost to stock markets.

U.S. Futures were mildly positive on Friday.  Dow Jones +0.19%, SP500 +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

That's all relatively positive for America on Monday night - but anything can happen.  Wait for Tuesday morning.

    2/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 31/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of March finished with a flurry.  After being solidly down for three weeks, the final week of the month brought a rally.  XJO finished -1.11% for the month, but the long lower wick on this month's candle shows the extent of the rally in the past week.

The index finished above the 8-Month EMA.  Supertrend remains bullish and Hull MA13 remains bullish.  

  

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is on a "buy" signal from Dec. 22 and DZ RSI is on a "buy" signals from Nov. 22.  (These signals are advisory only, and can give false signals.)

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week above its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), and has bounced off support at the 6900 level (round figures).  

The last three candles are in a bullish configuration:  big down week, doji, big up week.

This week, the chart finished marginally above the 8-Week EMA but remains below the Supertrend and Hull MA13 remains bearish.  So, the market is not out of the woods yet.

DZ Stochastic still hasn't given a weekly "buy" signal.  DZ RSI has given a "buy" signal this week, that follows its "sell" signal back in early February.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO is up every day of the week.  It has finished above the 200-DMA and 8-DEMA. Supertrend is bullish and Hull MA13 is bullish.

Now for a cautionary note.  DZ Stochastic and DZ RSI are both in over-bought conditions.  A down-turn below the upper zones would be a short-term "sell" signal.  

Monthly and Daily Charts are in sync (bullish).  Weekly Chart is still a little hesitant with DZ Stochastic still not showing a "buy" signal, but DZ RSI is bullish.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

All eleven sectors (plus Gold Miners) were positive this week.  This week's rally was broad based.  

Composite Bonds (a safe haven) saw it lose a little ground, down -0.39%.

Best sector, by far, was XMJ (Materials) up a massive +7.01%.  XXJ (Financials), the largest sector in the market, was up strongly, +2.49%.  The two weakest sectors (relatively) were XHJ (Health) +1.08% and XPJ (Property) +1.02%.  

Sector Momentum.

The above chart shows Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's for eleven sectors plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XMJ, XEJ, XHJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

This is a picture of a very strong market with only one sector showing bearish momentum - Property.

All other sectors, plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are either in a bullish trend or a bullish counter trend rally.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It has remained below its 10-Day MA since 13 February.  On Friday, it had its first up day since 9 Feb.

Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , it's best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

A momentum chart for NewHighs-NewLows provides a more bullish picture:

This chart shows that the difference between New Highs and New Lows has been narrow since 21 March. The 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-DMA on 22 March - which provides a "buy"signal.  

X-Overs of the 5DMA of the 21DMA have provided good medium term "buy" and "sell" signals.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 28%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 29%, This Week 40%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 50%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week, it is now well into bullish territory.

Conclusion.

 

This week, the ASX was up breaking a series of seven down weeks in a row.  This week's rise was emphatic and suggests a phase shift in the market from bearish to bullish.  

Stay safe.

Finspiration Australia.

   26/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 24/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had over three weeks of trading so far in the Month of March.  So far, the month has been poor, with the XJO down -4.18%.  The index remains below the 8-Month EMA - bearish.

This chart gives very slow signals - as they only take relevance at the end of the month.  But currently, the chart is not looking flash hot.

  

Monthly RSI is at 49.74.  50 represents a dividing line between bullish and bearish.  

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week below its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), but it held support at the 6900 level (round figures).  That was set in the early days of January this year - so our market has gone nowhere in the ensuing three months.

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.57%.   We have now had seven weeks of weekly losses.  This week did show some buying during the week.  (See daily chart below)

Turmoil is largely due to fear about Bank solvency in the U.S. and Europe.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, the XJO attempted to climb above the 200-Day MA, but retreated on Thursday.  Friday saw plenty of intra-day buying (see long lower wick on Friday's candle) so we may see another attempt at breaking above the 200-Day MA.

XJO remains oversold with an RSI at 35.31.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Sectors were evenly split this week between positive and negative sectors.  Five sectors were positive and five sectors negative with one flat, XHJ.  The best performer was Discretionary +1.2%.  But that performance was smashed in the above chart by Gold Miners, +7.79%.  XGD is not a sector but an industry grouping within Materials (XMJ).  It is a good barometer of fear in the market, as Investors often see Gold (and Gold Miners) as a safe haven in times of turmoil.

The big damage this week was done by Financials -1.89%.  That's not a bad result given the turmoil in overseas markets.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It crossed below its 10-Day MA on 13 February.  Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , its best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is well below the zero level.  When Bonds are out-performing stocks its a sign to stay defensive.

The 5-Day MA and 21-Day MA provide a reasonable guide to the broad market.  When the 5-Day MA crosses below the 21-Day MA - stay defensive.  When the 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-Day go to offense.  The 5-Day MA crossed below the 21-Day MA on 9 February - sell signal.

The 5-Day MA crossed above the 21-Day MA on the 9 January - buy signal.

Here's the XJO with the cross-over dates pin-pointed:

The Bond Market is dominated almost exclusively by professionals while the Stock Market has a large proportion of retail investors (amateurs). 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 19%, This Week 28%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 30%, This Week 29%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 44%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week.  That's often indicative of a possible change in trend.

 

Conclusion.

 

The market has been down for seven weeks in a row.  Market news has been dominated by dismal news among banks, small and large in the U.S. and Europe.

Our market is showing some signs of finding a bottom this week, but we need much more evidence before feeling comfortable about the Stock market.

The Stock/Bonds Ratio Chart might provide timely warning of a reversal to the upside.  So far, however, it is still saying, "Stay Defensive".

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 25/3/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday - XJO down marginally after strong intra-day buying.

Last night - U.S. stocks finish positive.

XJO Friday:

XJO down -0.2% yesterday.  The long lower wick on yesterday's candle indicates strong intra-day buying.

The only positive on the chart is the Hull MA13 which is the shortest MA I use.  

XJO remains below the 200-Day MA.  It has been rejected by the 10-Day MA and the first line of the triple Supertrends.  We need to see better than that to enter for a trade.

Overnight in the U.S.  Major indices finish up modestly.  Regional Banks have a big rise.

Dow Jones +0.41%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.31%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Regional Banks +3.03%.  Despite that big rise in Region Banks, the chart remains mired at the low end of its big down-trend.

SP500.

SP500 is doing better than Australia's XJO.  It finished last night above its 200-Day MA and above all three of the triple Supertrends.  

Hull MA13 is positive and the Index finished above the 10-Day MA.

The index remains locked between the 50-Day MA and the 200-Day MA.  A move above the 50-Day MA would be bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals flat -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.53%.  Gold -1.13%.

The upside movements in the American Indices suggest that the Australian market will be up on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.41%.  The Hull MA13 has turned down which is a short-term negative signal.

Longer term, BTC remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA and triple Supertrends.

Finspiration Australia.

     5/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 3/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've only had three days in March with the XJO up +0.35%.  In February, XJO was down -2.92%

So far, the Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, Supertrend (7/1.5).  Not much damage done yet.

  

Monthly RSI is at 54.31.  50 represents the dividing line between bullish and bearish.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO remains in an up-trend, with higher highs and higher lows.  In the past five days, XJO fallen -0.32%.  The previous week it was down -0.54%.  So down side over the past two weeks has been modest.

This week saw good buying during the week to erase most of the early losses.

XJO began to fall four weeks ago at a major resistance level.  

8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 turned turned down, which is bearish. Supertrend continues to provide support this week.  Events overnight on Friday in America could see a break to the upside.   

Weekly RSI is at 54.2 - bullish but falling.  

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO was behind the eight-ball with a big fall on Monday.  It has been up three of the past four days.

My shortest term moving average is the Hull MA13.  It turned down on the 9 Feb.  It has now turned up, so the down-trend could be ending.

I'd like to see the index finish above the 8-Day EMA (grey line) before feeling confident that the short-term trend has turned up.  That seems likely to occur on Monday, given events in the U.S. on Friday night.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Breadth was poor this week, with only two sectors pushing to the upside - but those two sectors did extremely well, Energy +5.19% and Materials +3.98%.

Financials, the biggest sector in the ASX, was down heavily -2.88%.  It has been doing very poorly in recent times, but could be coming to the end of its pull-back.

On the Thursday, XXJ fell heavily taking its RSI down to 26.6.  We rarely see the RSI for XXJ get below 30 before we get some sort of a rebound.  Watch XXJ on Monday for some good news for our market.

Gold Miners.

XGD (Gold Miners) was one of the stand-outs this week, up +6.42% after being down five weeks in a row.  The bullish engulfing candle for this week suggests more upside for the Gold Miners.  It has also bounced off support of the 50-Week MA - another bullish sign.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL pulled to the upside this week, with the 3-Day MA rising sharply.  The 3-Day MA needs to get back above the 20-Day MA for long-term investors to feel comfortable about their investments.  Until that happens, stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is below the zero level.

This is a reasonable picture of bullish and bearish status of the market.  It's probably a good idea for medium term investors to remain bearish on stocks while this chart remains below zero.  If you're a bit cheeky, you might go long if the chart rises above the 10-Day MA.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 44%, This Week 40%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 56%, This Week 55%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 61%.

The longer term measures remain above the 50% mark.  So the market is not in bad shape.  Short-term I'd like to see Stocks above 10-DMA move back above 50%.

SP500.

I mentioned, early in this report, the good results in America on Friday.  Here's the SP500 chart.

The past two sessions on the SP500 have seen strong upside moves.    Friday saw a rise of +1.61%.  That triggered a number of bullish indicators.  

Thursday saw the SP500 bounce strongly off the 200-Day MA - that's a bullish indicator.  Friday saw the index cross above the 8-Day EMA, and the Supertrend changed from blue to yellow - bullish.  Hull MA13 has turned up - bullish.

This looks like the start of a good short-term upside rally.

 

Conclusion.

 

A lot of jig-saw pieces are falling into place for our market in the coming week.  SP500 has turned short-term bullish and we should follow suit on Monday.