30/9/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 ASX up moderately yesterday, while overnight the U.S. was ambivalent, Dow down, Nasdaq up.

XJO CHART     

Yesterday, XJO broke a three-day losing streak, up modestly +0.34%.

In the longer time frame, XJO seems to have completed an ABCD down trend with a positive divergence showing on the MACD Histogram. The ABCD pattern has taken two months to evolve.  In those two months, XJO has fallen -6.25%.

This looks like the end of the two-month down-trend.

Materials +1.22% was the best performing sector, while Energy -0.63% was the worst.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones -0.47%.  SP500 -0.27%.  Nasdaq +0.14%.  Small Caps -0.68%.  Banks +0.14%.

Intra-day selling knocked the top off a positive start.

SP500.

 I think last night was the last hurrah of the bears.  Positive divergence on the MACD Histogram suggests more upside.

A controversial theory suggests that stock market returns are lower round a full moon and higher on a new moon.  Last night was a full moon.  (See here for evidence.)

Dynamic Zone Stochastic has moved up above its lower band - that's a short-term buy signal.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index down, -1.07% after Energy fell heavily -1.31%

Weird session on Base Metals, huge gap up then a bunjee jump down and back up.  Base metals finished +1.32%.  Agriculture down heavily -1.79%.  Gold -1.03%.

September is usually the worst month of the year.  We've now got that behind us.

October is often bi-polar, down early then up later in the month.  So we could see some more fluffing about before we see some definite upside moves.
 

 

29/9/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Nice rebound in the American market last night.  Nothing startling but coming at the low end of a down trend it is promising.  Dow Jones +0.35%.   SP500 +0.59%.  Nasdaq +0.83%.  Copper up +2.08%.  Gold -0.49%.  WTI Oil -2%.  10 out of 11 sectors were up.  Energy was only just positive.  The one negative was Utilities.

Wednesday's "hanging man" candle (bullish) has morphed into a bullish candle on Thursday.  Expect more upside.

This morning. Sydney Futures are pointing to a positive start, up +0.64%.

Good Luck.

Thurs. Evening Finspiration Report.

 Action was choppy on the ASX today, with the XJO finished down marginally.  XJO -0.08%.

 XJO continues to hover above a major support level.  Today's candle was a "spinner" with a narrow body and long wicks above and below the body.  This indicates indecision.

Despite today's flat finish, breadth was poor with only two sectors up, Energy +2.96% and Materials +0.29%.  Financials had a modest fall, down -0.25%.  

Worst sector today was Discretionary -1.18%.  

In early trading tonight, Euro STOXX600 is down modestly -0.38%.  Dow Futures down marginally -0.1%.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO finished down marginally after testing support and rebounding.  XJO -0.11%.

Last night in America, indices pulled the same Oz trick.  Down heavily just before 2.00 p.m. American time, indices finished down a little, or up a little.

Dow Jones -0.2%.  SP500 +0.02%.  Nasdaq +0.22%.

SP500

 Coming at the low end of a down trend and a Hang-man candle, I think that will be the  end of this trend.  Look for follow-through buying.

Last night's action, plus the intra-day rebound in Australia, makes for a positive day to day in Oz, although our market will probably start on the downside.

Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 27/9/23.

The ASX is set to open on the downside this morning, with Sydney Futures -0.34% after the American market fell last night.  Dow Jones -1.14%, SP500 -1.47%, Nasdaq -1.57%, Copper -0.65% and Gold -0.91%.

Overnight, BHP -2%, Rio -1.68%.

SP500.

 SP500 is in the second wave down of its down-trend that started on 27 July. 

The index is now oversold with an RSI almost at 30.

The positive divergence on MACD Histogram suggests that the Index is close to a reversal point.  Major horizontal support and 200-Day MA are, however, still some distance away.

Stay with the trend until it has clearly ended.

RIO Tinto in America.

Rio is close to the Point of Control - the zone where the heaviest trading volume has occurred, so a reversal may not be far away.  Major horizontal support lies at 61.21.  Rio finished at 62.01.

U.S, VIX (Fear Index).

VIX, which trades inversely to stocks, is at the top of its range and showed a big intra-day reversal, so to a contrarian that suggests the fall in U.S. stocks is coming to an end.

Tuesday Evening Finspiration Post 26/9/23

 ASX falls today.  XJO down -0.54%.

XJO is having a hard time getting above the first of my Supertrend Lines (1/10).  It also remains below my 4EMA which is a very short term market.

But it remains above the critical horizontal support line at 7000 (round figures).

So the market remains in limbo.

Continue to wait and watch.

Monday Evening Finspiration Report. 25/9/23.

 Another fascination day on the Ozzie Market.  After falls in New York on Friday night, predictably, the ASX fell at the opening today - but intraday buying pushed the XJO up to a small positive gain.  XJO +0.11%.  The range today was not as dramatic as Friday's, but still impressive.

Only two sectors were negative today - but they were the Biggies, Materials -0.73% and Financials -0.21%.  So, although the gain was relatively small, breadth was good.

IT was the best performer today +1.92%.  Some of the big names in IT performed well today, XRO +2%, Wisetech +1.6% and Technology One +4%.

In early trading in Europe, stocks have fallen following the pattern in Australian today.  STOXX600 currently down -0.78%.  Dow Jones Futures currently down -0.15%.