14/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Oz Market should open on the high side this morning with ASX 200 Futures up +0.54%.

Overnight In the U.S.  Report Card on Indices was varied: From "Needs more effort"  to "Very Good".      

Dow Jones flat +0.14%.  SP500 +0.85%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Mid Cap +0.57%.  Small Caps +0.63%.  Banks +1.33%.

SP500.

 

This rise looks too sharp and too far above the Kumo Cloud to be sustainable.  Prepare for a pull-back or, at least, a consolidation.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Index +1.41%.  Energy +1.11%.  Base Metals +2.06%.  Agriculture +0.66%.  Gold flat +0.07%.

 

13/7/23 Thursday Evening Finspiration Report

 ASX rises for third straight day.  Up +1.56%.

The traditional definition of a down-trend is lower highs and lower lows.  By that definition, XJO remains in a down-trend.  But we haven't yet seen a down-turn on the latest leg up, so we can't definitively say that Point3 is the top of this leg.  It can still go higher - so the jury remains out on this criterion.

By other definitions it is now in an short-term up-trend - or at least a counter-trend rally.

Using Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's, XJO is now in a counter-trend upside rally.

Monthly RSI:  53.42

Weekly RSI:  52.39

Daily RSI:  54.99

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

 NH-NL Cum has had a bullish kick to the upside off the 10-Day MA.  

 I'll go back to my initial hunch on Tuesday that the move up on Tuesday had such force as to indicate the end of the bearish sentiment.  The follow-through on Wed. and Thur. confirms that.

If we look at the XJO chart above, the action on Tuesday at PointC was different in kind from the sort of action we saw at PointA and PointB.

Now we could get a pull-back here after three very strong days.  But if we then get a rise above Point3 and don't break below PointC - we will have a new bullish rally - even by the traditional definition.

I'm sticking with that scenario unless we see a pull-back here and a break below Point C.

Best performing Sector today was again Property, up +3.18% today, followed by Info.Tech +2.27% and Discretionary +2.22%.  Those are all sectors sensitive to interest rates.  They are giving a nod to at least a pause in interest rate rises and probably a fall.  Good news.

Materials was also up more than +2% today.

Every Sector was up today, with the worst being  Health Care +0.86%, Communication Services +0.75% and Utilities +0.66%.  Health and Utilities are quintessential defensive sectors, so we are see a switch out of defensives into growth and cyclical sectors.

 

13/7/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight in the U.S.  Market finishes higher but off session's highs.  Commodities up.

 

Dow Jones -0.25%.  SP500 +0.74%.  Nasdaq +1.15%.  Mid Caps +0.71%.  Small Caps +1.06%.  Banks +1.1%.

 SP500.

 SP500 gapped up at the open and broke above resistance.  Intra-day selling took the top of some of the gains and suggests that the Index will come back to test support - either horizontal support or the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.72%.  Energy +1.04%.  Base Metals +2.56%.  Agriculture -0.84%.  Gold +1.35%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +1.27%.  Best sector - Property +2.16% followed by Materials +1.76% and Discretionary +1.66%. 
 

12/7/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 

Today, the XJO blinked.  Yep - it was way up just after the start at 10.00 a.m., then it thought, "On No, we can't be way up here because anything could happen tonight.  Like - a horrendous CPI report in America."  So the XJO blinked, fell, and finished up just +0.38%.

Maybe the XJO had the CPI in its mind, but - the chart also hit the 200-Day MA (that's the big black curvy line on the chart) and the traders at Dogsbody Brokers Inc. said, Nah - can't get over that line, and sold off the Oz Futures.

If you want a sane, sensible view of today's action - tune in to that famous Guru, Alan Kohler, on the ABC at 7.20 p.m. for his Investment Hindsight Show.

Here's the XJO Chart:

Besides the 200-Day MA on the chart, there are some other lines happening right at the confluence of the 200DMA and today's candle.

Welcome to the Magical Mystical World of Ichimoku.

Today's candle failed when it hit the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud and the Conversion Line (blue).

That's some powerful portents there on the chart.  (Listen - you can hear Shakespeare's witches garbling, Double, double, toil and trouble; fire burn and cauldron bubble.)

Meanwhile - back in the real world - the Blues and Maroons are gearing up for an almighty fight in Sydney - Origin III

12/7/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report

 Overnight in the U.S.  Stocks push higher. Commodities up.

Dow Jones +0.93%.  SP500 +0.67%.  Nasdaq +0.55%.  Mid Caps +1.12%.  Small Caps +0.94%.  Banks +1.69%.

Small Caps are at a major horizontal resistance area.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced up from a High Volume Node.  

The index is close to its recent high.  Odds favour a break above that level.

June CPI is released tonight in the U.S. (Oz time).  That could be the catalyst for a strong move to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.17%.  Energy +1.73%.  Base Metals +0.28%.  Agriculture +0.99%.  Gold +0.37%.

Gold Chart.

Gold broke above its 20-Day MA last night but remains in a bearish configuration.

A break above the Base Line on the Ichimoku System should see a counter trend move, but the precious metal has a lot of overhead resistance. 

11/7/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report

 XJO up strongly today.  +1.5%.

The strength of today's rebound almost certainly indicates the end of the down-trend.  Look to more upside.

 

All sectors were up today.  XIJ (Inc.Tech.) did best +2.6% and Staples the weakest +0.65%.  Other Defensives were also relatively weaker:  Health +0.74% and Utilities +0.95%.

Gold Miners did exceptionally well +3.23%.

European markets have opened on the high side.  German DAX +0.18%, French CAC +-0.54%.  But UK FTSE flat -0.09%

U.S. Futures are currently flat.

11/7/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. market finishes on the plus side.  Commodities up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.62%.  SP500 +0.24%.  Nasdaq +0.18%.  Mid Caps +1.25&.  Small Caps +1.3%.  Banks +0.22%.

SP500.

The medium term trend is up.  Short term, the trend is consolidating.

The index has found support at the Conversion Line of the Ichimoku System and is well above the Base Line and the Kumo Cloud.  This is a bullish pattern.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.22%.  Energy +0.25%.  Base Metals +0.08%.  Agriculture +0.09%.  Gold +0.08%.

Gold continues to find resistance at its 20-Day Moving Average.  A rise above that could see much higher Gold prices.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up strongly +0.95%.