Finspiration Australia

 25/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO down marginally.

Overnight in the U.S., muted market with mixed results.

XJO Chart.

XJO has now triggered many short-term "sell" signals.  

• Hull MA13 has switched from up to down.  (Dashed line on the chart.)
• RSI has fallen below the mid-line (20-Day MA) of its Bollinger Bands.
• DZ Stochastic has its bands squeezed together and the Stock line has fallen to the downside.
• Short-term line of Double MACD has fallen below its long-term line.
• CCI has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.
• Chart has fallen below its 8-Day EMA.

Triple Supertrend lines still haven't switched from yellow to blue - that's a more of a medium-term signal.

U.S. Indices overnight.

Dow Jones +0.2%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.29%.  Mid Caps +0.02%.  Small Caps -0.01%.  Banks -0.41%.

SP500.

Sp500 is showing similar short-term sell signals to the Australian XJO.  Triple Supertrends continue to show bullish - this is more of a medium-term indicator.

SP500 is showing three doji candle-sticks in a row - indecision.  America is in the midst of Earnings Season - later this week some of the biggest Tech Companies report, e.g., Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta.

The American market is in indecision mode waiting on those ginormous companies to report.

Other big U.S. companies reporting this week are:  Visa, Pepsi, McDonald's, Boeing, Intel, Mastercard, Exxon, Chevron, Colgate Palmolive.  So it's a big week for reporting in the U.S. this week.  This will have an effect on the direction of the market.

Next week, the Federal Reserve reports on its interest rate decision.  That's another overhang on the market.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.8%.  Energy +1.6%.  Base Metals -0.72%.  Agriculture +0.57%.  Gold +0.37%.

The Australian Market is closed for Anzac Day today.

       23/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 21/4/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had three weeks so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +2.13%.  

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

MACD Histogram is sitting on its Zero line - confirming the no-trend info. from Supertrend.

RSI is above 50 - bullish.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little.

There's not a lot of direction coming from the Monthly Chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in bullish mode, with all three Supertrend lines turning yellow.

DZ Stochastic is above its "buy" line.

RSI is above its centre line (20-Day MA), that's a "buy" signal.

Those two indicators confirm each other.

XJO was down -0.42% for the week.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO is in pull-back mode.  The Hull MA13 shows a rounding top which is bears.

DZ Stochastic and RSI have both crossed below their signal lines - bearish.

DZ Stochastic Zone has crunched up to almost nothing - and is now starting to expand.  Expect more downside action.

SP500 Daily

Indicators on the SP500 are bearish.  DZ Stochastic and RSI are both below their signal lines - bearish.

CCI shows a big negative divergence which often precedes a pull-back.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Mixed results in the sectors this week, but the "ups" were modest, and the "downs" were big downs.

Best performer was Property +0.87%.  That's hardly indicative of a bullish market.

The weakest sectors were cyclicals, Energy -2.29%% and Materials -2.16%%

BHP and RIO both reported this week.  Media played up the positives in their reports.  Fund managers were less enamoured.  Macquarie put Rio on a "neutral" rating.  That's fund manager "new-speak" for "sell".

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XXJ, XHJ, XSJ, XPJ, XNJ.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ.

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally. XEJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish pull-back.  XDJ,XIJ,XTJ,XSJ,XUJ.

Last week, we had no sectors in counter-trend pull-backs.  This week we have five.  That could easily turn into bearish trends.  This is a picture which doesn't give a lot of confidence in the market.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio were in a strong bullish rally.  That turned around this week with Stocks/Bonds Ratio falling below its 5-Day MA.  That still isn't into bearish territory but shows stocks weakening compared to bonds.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 61%, This Week 43%

2.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 81%, This Week 56%.  

3.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 63%, This Week 65%.  

4.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 67%, This Week 68%.

The two short-term metrics (HullMA13, 10-Day MA) have both dropped sharply this week - suggesting we are at the beginning of a serious pull-back.

Conclusion.

 

Monthly Chart - ambiguous.  Weekly Chart - bullish.  Daily Chart - bearish.

I think we're at the start of a significant pull-back.

Take Care.

It never pays to become too complacent about the market.  Nor does it pay to jump like a startled rabbit at the any sign of a pull-back.  

Stay vigilant.

Finspiration Australia.

22/4/23.  Saturday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Yesterday in Australia, XJO fell moderately.

Overnight in the U.S., stock market was flat.

XJO down -0.43% and showing the first definite signs of bearishness.  Hull MA13 (dotted line) has turned down and the chart finished below the 8-Day EMA.

Yesterday's dark candle, after two dojos, is a bearish signal.

DZ Stochastic closed below its upper Zone line.  That needs to be confirmed by a close by the RSI below its median line (20-Day MA) and short-term MACD (yellow) closing below longer term MACD (blue).

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.07%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq +0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.06%.  Small Caps -0.32%.  Banks -1.5%.

SP500.

SP500 has had two doji candlesticks in a row.  It remains just a tick above the 8-Day EMA and the past two days have bounced of the first of the triple Superintends.

RSI remains a tick above its median line (20-Day MA).  A drop below the 20-Day MA is bearish.

DZ Stochastic is bearish and short-term MACD is below long-term MACD.

Lots of indecision with two dojis and mixed indicator signals.  Wait.

Commodities.  Energy up, Base Metals down.

Commodities Index -0.21%.  Energy +0.83%.  Base Metals -1.16%.  Agriculture -0.66%.  Gold -0.99%.

With U.S. Banks and Base Metals down overnight, that looks dangerous for Australia on Monday.

Overnight in the U.S., our big miners were down.  BHP -3.23%, Rio -4.04%.  That re-inforces the notion that XJO will be down on Monday.

 

Finspiration Australia.

 21/4/23.  Bitcoin Morning Finspiration Report.

Bitcoin continues to slide.

BTCUSD down -2.02% last night.  The trend continues to be bearish.  Avoid.

Finspiration Australia.

 21/4/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight, U.S. stocks sink again.

Dow Jones -0.33%.  SP500 -0.6%.  Nasdaq -0.8%.  Mid Caps -0.38%.  Small Caps -0.36%.  Banks -1.81%.

SP500.

Last night's doji candlestick indicates indecision.

The index is close to giving sell signals but not quite there yet. 

The chart is sitting just above the 8-Day EMA where it's been since 16 March - over a month.

DZ Stochastic has closed below its upper boundary line, but not yet confirmed by RSI which is just above its 20-Day MA.

I little nudge lower would see sell signals triggered.  Wait.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.87%.  Energy -2.13%.  Base Metals -0.95%.  Agriculture -0.14%.  Gold +0.39%.

Iron Ore Futures -0.8%.  ASX Futures -0.4%.  That makes for a bleak opening today for the Oz market.

Finspiration Australia.

 20/4/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO finishes flat, again.

XJO down just -0.04% today.  Another narrow range doji candle-stick.

The first short-term sell signals were triggered today.  Hull MA13 - that's the dotted line hugging the chart - rolled over.  DZ Stochastic finished below its top signal line.

I like to see these confirmed by a close by the RSI below its 20-Day MA - that's the median line of its Bollinger Bands.

Despite the apparently benign trading today - that hid some big changes.

Resources ETF OZR fell heavily.

Two of three Supertrend lines switched from bullish to bearish.

All three indicators in the lower panels all triggered sell signals.

To counter that - banks had a good day.

MVB (ETF for Banks) rose by +1.69%.  It is now hard up against the 200-Day MA which often results in a pull-back.

In overseas markets tonight, things are looking grim.  European stock markets are lower.  German DAX down -0.71% and French CAC down -0.34%.  Dow Jones futures -0.45%.

I think we'll see follow-through selling in the Oz market tomorrow.  (After all - we did have an eclipse today.)

Finspiration Australia.

 20/4/23.  Thursday Morning, Bitcoin Finspiration Report.

Bitcoin fell further last night - confirming bearish "sell" signals.  BTCUSD down -5.17%

Two out of three Supertrend lines have now turned blue (bearish).  One more - and it is a slam dunk.

All three indicators in the lower panels are showing "sell" signals.

Important horizontal support/resistance lies at 28473.  BTCUSD finished at 28824