23/4/23. Weekend Report - The Week That Was. Week Ended 21/4/23.
XJO Monthly Chart.
We've had three weeks so far in April. XJO is up, so far, +2.13%.
The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart. All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.
MACD Histogram is sitting on its Zero line - confirming the no-trend info. from Supertrend.
RSI is above 50 - bullish.
DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little.
There's not a lot of direction coming from the Monthly Chart.
XJO Weekly Chart.
DZ Stochastic is above its "buy" line.
RSI is above its centre line (20-Day MA), that's a "buy" signal.
Those two indicators confirm each other.
XJO was down -0.42% for the week.
XJO Daily Chart.
XJO is in pull-back mode. The Hull MA13 shows a rounding top which is bears.
DZ Stochastic and RSI have both crossed below their signal lines - bearish.
DZ Stochastic Zone has crunched up to almost nothing - and is now starting to expand. Expect more downside action.
SP500 Daily
Indicators on the SP500 are bearish. DZ Stochastic and RSI are both below their signal lines - bearish.
CCI shows a big negative divergence which often precedes a pull-back.
Weekly Changes in Sectors.
Mixed results in the sectors this week, but the "ups" were modest, and the "downs" were big downs.
Best performer was Property +0.87%. That's hardly indicative of a bullish market.
The weakest sectors were cyclicals, Energy -2.29%% and Materials -2.16%%
BHP and RIO both reported this week. Media played up the positives in their reports. Fund managers were less enamoured. Macquarie put Rio on a "neutral" rating. That's fund manager "new-speak" for "sell".
Sector Momentum.
All three columns sloping up - bullish trend. XXJ, XHJ, XSJ, XPJ, XNJ.
All three columns sloping down - bearish trend. XMJ.
Down then up - counter trend bullish rally. XEJ.
Up then down - counter trend bearish pull-back. XDJ,XIJ,XTJ,XSJ,XUJ.
Last week, we had no sectors in counter-trend pull-backs. This week we have five. That could easily turn into bearish trends. This is a picture which doesn't give a lot of confidence in the market.
Stocks/Bonds Ratio.
Stocks/Bonds Ratio were in a strong bullish rally. That turned around this week with Stocks/Bonds Ratio falling below its 5-Day MA. That still isn't into bearish territory but shows stocks weakening compared to bonds.
% of Stocks above key moving averages.
1. % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 61%, This Week 43%
2. % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 81%, This Week 56%.
3. % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 63%, This Week 65%.
4. % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 67%, This Week 68%.
The two short-term metrics (HullMA13, 10-Day MA) have both dropped sharply this week - suggesting we are at the beginning of a serious pull-back.
Conclusion.
Monthly Chart - ambiguous. Weekly Chart - bullish. Daily Chart - bearish.
I think we're at the start of a significant pull-back.
Take Care.
It never pays to become too complacent about the market. Nor does it pay to jump like a startled rabbit at the any sign of a pull-back.
Stay vigilant.
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