Sat. 1/1/22.  XJO down heavily, U.S. falls in last 30 minutes.

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO down -0.92% and below major horizontal support level.

PRT Bands continue to indicate a bullish trend.  The 8-Day EMA could provide support.

Looking under the bonnet, some surprises can be seen.  NewHigs-NewLows, for example, came in at +41, which remains bullish.

Overnight in America.

 Dow Jones -0.16%.  SP500 -0.26%.  Nasdaq -0.61%.  Small Caps -0.04%.  Banks -0.06%.

SP500.

This looks like topping action but the short-term trend remains up.  Until it breaks below the 8-Day EMA, stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.48%.  Energy -1.39%.  Base Metals +1%.  Gold +0.68%.

Australian market is closed on Monday for New Year's Day holiday.  America will trade on Monday night (our time), so we'll have more American data to digest before we re-open on Tuesday.

Judging by the big fall in Oz yesterday, we can expect consolidation - but new data out of America could change that.

 Fri. a.m. 31/12/21.  U.S. stocks fall in last half-hour of trading.

Overnight.

Dow Jones -0.25%.  SP500 -0.3%.  Nasdaq -0.16%.  Small Caps -0.46%.  Banks -0.35%.

SP500.

SP500 set a new intra-day high record, but late selling pushed it into negative territory.  This looks like the start of a pull-back, but with plenty of nearby support, the dip will probably be bought.

Commodities.

Commodities Index (-0.45%) is following a similar path to stock indices.  Energy -0.4%.  Base Metals +0.05%.  Gold +0.72%.

Iron Ore -0.7%.

After 50 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.3%.  I doubt we'll see a recovery today.

Happy New Year!

 Thu. p.m. 30/12/21.  XJO finishes flat today.

XJO was up just 3.6 points today or +0.05%.

The short-term trend is to the upside and the long-term trend is also to the upside.  

An important horizontal resistance level lies just above the current level - set back in late-August/early-September.  So a pull-back may not be far off.  Probably, any pull-back will be bought.

The short

 Thu. a.m. 30/12/21.  Dow up for sixth day.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.25%.  SP500 +0.14%.  Nasdaq -0.1%.  Small Caps +0.41%.  Banks -0.01%. 

SP500.

The double doji candle-sticks suggest that this is the end of this run-up.  The trend remains up, so, until we see definite signs of a pull-back stay with the trend.  Given seasonal tendencies, any dip is likely to be bought.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy 0.46%.  Base Metals -0.5%.  Gold -0.03%.

Iron Ore +0.3%.

After 40 minutes of trading, XJO is flat, up just 0.06%.

 Wed. p.m. 29/12/21.  XJO up for fifth day.

XJO had a very strong day today, up +1.21%.

That represents a break-out from th recent trading range.  Expect more upside.

Given the strength of today's action, we might see the XJO settle back for a day or two.

VIX is suggesting that as it rose today from from 10.8 to 11.26.  VIX tends to trade inversely to the XJO, so when it rises as the XJO rises, that's a warning signal.

 Wed. a.m. 29/12/21.  Dow up for fifth day.

Overnight.

Dow Jones +0.26%.  SP500 -0.1%.  Nasdaq -0.56%.  Small Caps -0.3%.  Banks -0.03%.

SP500.

SP500 took a rest day after four days to the upside.  We may see some more consolidation.  The trend remains up - stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.19%.  Energy +0.46%.  Base Metals -0.36%.  Gold -0.43%.

Iron Ore market was closed.

After 45 minutes of trading, the ASX200 is up about 1%.

    Weekly Wrap, Week ended 24/12/21.  XJO rises from crucial level

XJO Monthly Chart:

XJO peaked in August, 2021.  It has since fallen September-November. So far in December, XJO has risen strongly above the crucial 8-month Exponential Moving Average.  

XJO Weekly Chart:

The weekly XJO Chart up strongly this week, +1.59%.  

The chart shows a wide trading range which switched the weekly trend from up to sideways.  A break above 7479 should be bullish.  A break below the 50-Week Moving Average (blue, curving line) would be bearish.

Currently, this week's candle is knocking on the top of the trading range. 

Daily XJO chart:

This week, XJO had four up days, which took the chart above the Ichimoku Cloud.  Chikou Span is also above the Ichimoku Cloud and the candlestick chart.  That puts the XJO into a bullish trend using the Ichimoku system.  Stay with the trend.

One Week Sector Changes:

The previous week's big losers were this week's big winners, Health (XHJ) +6.28% and Information Technology (XIJ) +3.51%.  Utilities (XUJ) +2.61% continues to perform well.  Only one stock was clearly down, Industrials (XNJ) -0.58%.  Two sectors were flat, Property (XPJ) -0.06% and Energy (XEJ -0.01%.  

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

For long-term investors, this is one of the most important charts to watch.

The Cum NH-NL is now sitting above its 10-Day Moving Average after a small rise this week.  

The Strong-Weak Stocks Chart rose this week, providing a confirmation of the Cum NH-NL.  

Stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA.

% of stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA rose this week from 53% to 73%.  That keeps it well above the bearish level of 50%.  More importantly, it has now broken the sequence of lower highs and lower lows (definition of a down-trend).  

Cumulative Advances-Declines was up marginally this week, but remains in a bearish trend below its 10-Day Moving Average.

Conclusion: The XJO still hasn't broken out of its sideways range, but the daily chart is bullish using the Ichimoku system.  We're now into the Santa Rally space.  So we should continue to see more upside in the short-term trend.  

America was strong last night (Monday night), so, barring black swans, we should have another solid day when we reopen on Wednesday, after two days of public holidays.

Now - back to the cricket at the MCG.

 Tue. a.m. 28/12/21.  SP500 jumps to new record high.

Overnight in America.

Dow Jones +0.98%.  SP500 +1.38%.  Nasdaq +1.39%.  Small Caps +1.44%.  Banks +1.15%.

SP500.

The Santa Rally has now extended to four days in a row, with a new all-time closing high for the second day in a row.

The trend on all time frames remains bullish.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.26%.  Energy +1.89%.  Base Metals +0.23%.  Gold +0.24%.

The Australian stock market is closed today for holidays.  

 Fri. a.m. 24/12/21.  SP500 closes at new record high.

Overnight:

Dow Jones +0.55%.  SP500 +0.62%.  Nasdaq +0.85%.  Small Caps +0.61%.  Banks +0.58%.

SP500.

SP500 finished with a record closing high, but not an all time intra-day high.  So it is lying within a fuzzy horizontal resistance area.  Everything else is bullish.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.96%.  Base Metals +0.27%.  Gold +0.23%.

Iron Ore +0.9%.

After 30 minutes of trading, XJO is up 0.6%.

 Thu. p.m. 23/12/21.  XJO rose modestly today.

XJO was up +0.31%, but remains doggedly within its trading range of the past four months.

Monday's bounce off the 200-Day Moving Average opens up the possibility that XJO is in a rising right-angle triangle.  A break through horizontal resistance would be bullish.

Currently, stocks are preferred to bonds.  So we do have a bias to risk-on for stocks according to this ratio.

Tonight is the last trading session for the U.S.  Tomorrow in Australia we have a shortened trading session.  It is usually accompanied by low volume - which opens up the possibility of sudden movements in the index one way or the other.  Tomorrow could be interesting.

 Thu. a.m. 23/12/21.  U.S. stocks rise for second day.

Overnight.

Dow Jones +0.74%.  SP500 +1.02%.  Nasdaq +1.18%.  Small Caps +1.11%.  Banks +0.39%.

SP500

SP500 remains within its trading range.  The short-term V-shaped recovery looks promising.

The Index is approaching overhead resistance.  If that can be broken, we should see much more upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.48%.  Energy +1.09%.  Base Metals +1.84%.  Gold +0.94%.

Iron Ore -1%.

After an hour of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.44%.  

The big miners are under some pressure today with RIO flat, but both BHP and FMG are falling.

 Wed. p.m. 22/12/21.  XJO stagnates.

It doesn't take a genius to see that the XJO has been drifting sideways for more than three months.

Today the XJO was up just +0.13% stifling any hopes of a continuation of the short-term trend to the upside after strong American data,

Unless you are a clever short-term trader, these sorts of markets are best to avoid.

On the positive side - the bias is still to the upside with a rising 200-Day MA.  

 Wed. a.m. 22/12/21.  U.S. rebounds strongly.

Dow Jones +1.6%.  SP500 +1.78%.  Nasdaq +2.4%.  Small Caps +2.94%.  Banks +2.65%.

SP500.

The two-day candle-stick pattern is a kicker pattern, a very strong pattern, which, coming at the end of a down-trend almost invariably signals the end of the down-trend.  The short-term trend is now up - stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +2.11%.  Energy +2.86%.  Base Metals +2.5%.  Gold -0.04%.

Iron Ore +0.5%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.15%.

We should have a positive day today, but we were up strongly yesterday - pre-empting the rise in America.  So, our XJO may not have a very strong day today despite the American strength.

 Tue. p.m. 21/12/21.  XJO up strongly today.

When the U.S. falls and we start on a positive note, we usually have a bullish day.  That's what happened today.  SP500 down overnight -1.14% but XJO up +0.3% after 15 minutes.  XJO finished up +0.86%.

 That's a great looking daily candle on the chart, but it doesn't change much.  The down-trend line from 8 Dec. hasn't been broken to the upside, and the chart remains within its wide trading range.

Like the indecisive chart above, the NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative chart remains in a sideways trend:

This chart usually trends strongly one way or the other.  I wouldn't be tempted to enter new large positions until we see a more definitive trend to the upside.

 Tue. a.m. 21/12/21.  U.S. stocks fall again.

Dow Jones -1.23%.  SP500 -1.14%.  Nasdaq -1.24%.  Small Caps -1.51%.  Banks -2.16%.

SP500.

From 7 December, SP500 has been in a choppy sideways range.  Last night it found support at the 50-Day Moving Average, so the odds are good for a bounce to the upside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.7%.  Energy -1.04%.  Base Metals -0.8%.  Golds -0.42%.

Iron Ore +4.2%.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.1%.

After 20 minutes of trading today, XJO is up +0.3%.  

Mon. 20/12/21.  XJO fell today in choppy trading.

XJO down a little -0.16%.

XJO remains within its trading range.  

Today saw a lot of intra-day buying which resulted in the XJO bouncing off the 200-Day MA and the lower edge of the trading range.

That's promising - but we need to see a break above the trading range to be confident of a medium term bullish trend.

If we get an up day tomorrow - that would be a positive for our market.

At this stage in proceedings overseas, that is looking unlikely.  Germany is currently down more than -2.85%.  UK down -2.14%.  Dow Futures are down -1.67%.

   Weekly Wrap, Week ended 17/12/21.  XJO rises from crucial level

XJO Monthly Chart:

XJO peaked in August, 2021.  It has since fallen September-November, but is now resuming its bullish trend in December.  This is important as it is moving up from a crucial long-term level - the 8-Month Exponential Moving Average.  December tends to be a seasonally bullish month for the market, so we may see more upside.

XJO Weekly Chart:

The weekly XJO Chart shows a decline this week of  -0.67%.  

The chart shows a wide trading range which switched the weekly trend from up to sideways.  A break above 7479 should be bullish.  A break below the 50-Week Moving Average (blue, curving line) would be bearish.

Currently, this week's candle is in the middle of the trading range.  This could go either way.

Daily XJO chart:

This week, XJO had two up days, two down days and one flat, but the down days overwhelmed the up days by -0.67%.

Given poor results in the U.S. on Friday night, we can expect a down day on Monday for our market.  That could see a test of the crucial 200-Day Moving Average.

One Week Sector Changes:

This week saw four sectors up, one flat (Energy) and six sectors down.  Health (XHJ) was the biggest loser, down -6.47%.  That was partly due to a big fall in CSL on Thursday when it was down -8.16%.  But some other stocks in XHJ also fell heavily.  For the week, COH - 3.72%, RMD -5.13%, RHC -3.61%, FPH 2.89%.

The best two performing sectors were Materials (XMJ) +2.33% and Property (XPJ) +2.25%.  Utilities (XUJ continues its recent good performance, up this week +1.4%.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

For long-term investors, this is one of the most important charts to watch.

The Cum NH-NL is now sitting above its 10-Day Moving Average after a small rise this week.  The chart is, however, trending sideways.  Wait.

The Strong-Weak Stocks Chart fell this week, providing a dis-confirmation of the Cum NH-NL.  We need to see congruence in those two charts to feel confident of direction 

Stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA.

% of stocks in the ASX100 above the 200-Day MA fell this week from 60% to 53%%.  That keeps it above the bearish level of 50%, but within comfortable striking distance of a bearish reading.

Cum Advances-Declines.

Cumulative Advances-Declines was up marginally this week, but remains in a bearish trend below its 10-Day Moving Average.

Conclusion: The XJO has been in a sideways trend for about three months.  The past week has not changed that situation.  Breadth Indicators (NH-NL, AD-DC, Stocks above 200-Day MA) are indecisive.  Wait.

We're coming into a seasonally favourable period - the fabled "Santa Rally" may be upon us this week.  The Santa Rally refers to an historically significant rise occurring in the last week of December and the first two days of January

It's important, however, to trade what you see not what you think.  Put ideas about "Santa Rally" to one side and watch the charts.