8/11/23. Wed. Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX up modestly today.  XJO +0.26%.

Chart for STW (ETF for XJO):

Today was a narrow range day, the narrowest for the past four days (NR4), so expect range expansion tomorrow.

The chart remains in consolidation mode with low volumes being recorded.  That suggests that the next move will be to the upside.  We shall see.

XJO remains with plenty of overhead resistance.

IT (XIJ) was the best performer again today,  XIJ +1.86%.  Property (XPJ) also continues to do well, XPJ +1.18%.

Only two sectors were negative today - both the Resources Sectors, XMJ -1.05%, Energy -0.15%.

OZR is an ETF for the Resources.  It was down today on heavy volume OZR -1.79%.

You can see by the width of today's candle just how heavy the volume was today.  That is also reflected in the bottom pane (volume) which has risen sharply higher, and Force Index which has fallen sharply reflecting both high volume and big fall in price.

That brought OZR almost down to horizontal support, so we could see some upside movement in the near future.

European stocks are mostly flat in early trading,  Euro STOXX600 down -0.05%.  Dow Futures -0.1%.  Oil is also flat, Pil -0.01%.  Gold +0.02%.  Not much direction in any of that.

Good luck

8/11/23. Wed. Morning Finspiration Report

 Major U.S. Indices finish on the positive side, but Small Caps pull back.

Dow Jones +0.17%.  SP500 +0.28%.  Nasdaq up strongly +0.9%.  Small Caps -0.69%.  Banks -0.51%.

SP500

I mentioned yesterday the many factors pointing to a pull-back.  Nothing has changed - except some factors have intensified.  Volume has continued to drop off - coming at the top of a trend that indicates a lack of confidence in the trend.  A push by bears would lead to capitulation.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -2.14%.  Energy -3.62%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture -1.34%.  Gold -0.41%.

Adter ninety minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up 0.25%.  Information Technology doing best (following the Nasdaq), up +1.62%.  Materials worst -1.61%. 
 

7/11/23. Tues. Evening Finspiration Report.

 RBA raised interest rates today by +0.25%.  They had to do that because they wouldn't dare do it in December?  Who knows.

It seems the market wasn't too fazed by the action.  It gyrated a bit at 2.30 when the announcement was made but then settled down.  XJO finished down -0.28%.

XJO has failed at a minor horizontal resistance level, but the pull-back so far hasn't been gut-wrenchding, leaving open the possibility of further upside.

Today saw intra-day buying, partly after the interest rate announcement - but nothing dramatic.

Today's candle finished above the 3-Day MA so the up trend remains in place.

Best performing sector today was IT (XIJ), up +1.44%.  Worst was XXJJ (Financials) down -1.04%.  Materials (XMJ) was flat -0.09%.

In early trading, European STOXX600 is flat 0.00%.  Dow Futures -0.19%.  Oil is down -1.95% - that might help the American market later in trading if the Oil price stays down.  Stocks/Oil tend to be inversely correlated.

7/11/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Major indices in America up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.1%.  SP500 +0.18%.  Nasdaq +0.3%.  Small Caps -1.05%.  Banks -0.86%.

SP500

 The SP500 is set up for a pull-back.

1.  At the Point of Control of the Volume Profile.

2.  At the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud (Ichimoku System)

3.  At horizontal resistance.

4.  At a big congestion zone.

5.  Volume has dropped significantly, so there's no conviction in the market.

6.  Overbought on the Stochastic.

It is rare to see so many negative conditions coming together at the one time.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.41%.  Energy +0.33%.  Base Metals +1.29%.  Agriculture +0.27%.  Gold -0.78%.

In the Australian market after 20 minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.23%.

Hope you back a winner in today's Cups race.

6/11/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up modestly today +0.28%.  STW (ETF for STW) up +0.25%.

STW inched closer today to major horizontal resistance and is opposite Point of Control on The Volume Profile to the left of the chart.

Tomorrow is RBA interest rate decision day (and Melbourne Cup).  STW is at an inflection point, so the Interest Rate decision will likely be decisive for the near-term direction of the market.

Health (XHJ) was the best performer today, +1.47%, while Energy went the other way -0.97%.

Woodside is the largest stock in Energy.  Here's the chart:

There's no clear sign yet that WDS is ready to turn around, but it is oversold so a rally may not be far off.

In early overseas trading, Europe its flat (STOXX500 +0.09%) and Dow Futures up a little +0.12%.

5/11/23. Weekly Finspiration Report

 Major Stock Markets around the world have had a great week, e.g.,  XJO +2.22%.  SP500 +5.85%.  European STOXX600 +3.41%.  Japanese Nikkei +3.18%.

STW Daily Chart (STW is an ETF which tracks the XJO)

STW broke above its Bullish Falling Wedge on Friday.  The chart had already given two "buy" signals, the first on Wednesday when the DZ Stochastic crossed above its lower band, and then the second one on Thursday when we had a double Supertrend "buy" signal. 

Friday was a heavy volume day which spiked the Force Index and the Volume Index to high levels.  That usually occurs when the market is setting up for a consolidation or pull-back.

Given Friday's big gain on the SP500, it seems likely that the XJO will hit Horizontal Resistance and go into consolidation or pause mode.

SP500 Daily

 Force Index gives good divergence signals.  That played out this week, when SP500 began a counter-trend rally on Monday after a good positive divergence signal appeared on the Force Index the previous week.

SP500 has had a big rise this week and is now at horizontal resistance and resistance from the 50-Day MA.

Expect consolidation or a pull-back in the coming week.

Is this a dead-cat bounce?  

We never know until after the fact.  At this stage we have a counter-trend rally.  We need to see a definite uptrend form with a higher low and a higher high on the SP500.  Given the strength of the current rally - that seems likely after the market absorbs some of the current rise.

Sector Performances this week.

The place to be this week was in Materials, esp. the big miners.  XMJ up +0.87%.  That was the only positive sector.

 

Resurgence of Property continued this week, XPJ +6.88% followed by Information Technology up +4.51%.  Those are two interest rate sensitive sectors - buoyed by suggestions that the Fed. may have reached the end of its interest rate hikes and no rise in Ozzie rates this week.  IT also received a big boost by Block (SQ2) rising by >25% on Friday.  XPJ and XIJ were the worst performers the previous week.

Sector Momentum 

 If a sector is in a counter trend rally, then the Daily RSI is above the Weekly RSI, but Weekly RSI is below the Monthly RSI, then I assume that the Sector is in a counter trend rally.  That doesn't mean it can't develop into a full blown up trend.  That would require the Weekly RSI to be above the Monthly RSI - it just hasn't happened yet.  It might on might not.

SECTORS in Counter-Trend Rallies:  Financials, Materials, Information Technology, Communications Services, Health, Staples, Property, Industrials.  XJO and Composite Bonds are also in Counter-Trend Rallies.  Sector closest to develop a full blown up trend is Property.

SECTORS in Down Trends:  Energy, Utilities.  Gold Mining is also in a down trend.

No Sectors are registering an up-trend.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

• Above their 200-DMA:  last week 34%, this week 36%.
• Above their 50-DMA:  last week 12%, this week 32%
• Above their 10-DMA:  last week 19%, this week 81%.

Stocks above 10-DMA is into overbought territory (above 80%) so the market could see some consolidation or a pull-back.

Long Term Market Signal.

 

My long-term Market Signal is based on the NeewHighs-NewLows Cumulative Chart with a 10-Day MA.  When the chart moves back above its 10-Day MA a "buy" signal is given.  It is usually reliable for long term investors.  It did have a whipsaw Aug/Sept this year but that is a rare anomaly.

The chart is currently in a steep down-trend.  New Lows are, however, rapidly disappearing, so we could get a new buy signal in the near term if the market continues to make ground.

Conclusion.

 

The Australian market has risen strongly this week - perhaps a little too strongly.  It probably needs a consolidation before (if) it is to resume its up trend.  If a higher high and higher low appears on the XJO/STW Charts, that would provide a sound medium term "buy" signal.  Given the strength of this week's rise with strong volume - I think we will see a new uptrend develop. 

 

Good Luck.

4/11/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday was Jobs Day in the U.S.  and the employment figures came in weaker than expected.  Bad News = Good News for the U.S. stock market.  Dow Jones has been up five days this week - its best week in more than a year.

 

 Dow Jones +0.66%.  SP500 +0.94%.  Nasdaq +1.38%.  Small Caps +2.73%.  Banks +3.07%

SP500

 SP500 has had a great run this week.  Now it is running into multiple resistance levels, horizontal resistance, 50-Day MA and the Kumo Cloud.  Expect a pause or pull-back here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.52%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals +0.49%.  Agriculture +0.72%.  Gold +0.36%.

Overnight in the U.S., BHP +1.23%.  Rio +0.77%.  Woodside +0.47%. 

Yesterday in Australia.

XJO was up strongly yesterday.  XJO +1.14%.  STW (ETF for XJO) +1.18%.

The Candle Volume for STW was very wide.  Force Index and Volume are at very high levels.  These volume studies suggest that STW (and XJO) are at or close to a short-term high.

STW is near a horizontal resistance level.  Given overnight action in the U.S. that horizontal resistance level is likely to be hit - and that might result in a consolidation or pull-back in STW and XJO.