19/10/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Thursday was a bad day on the ozzie market.  It followed on from big falls overnight and a strong employmnet report (on the surface).  In this case, good news was bad news for the market (higher employment = RBA interest rate rise).  But, maybe, the report was not as good as it seemed at first glance.

The unemployment figures dropped from 3.7% in August to 3.6% in September.  Pundits expected no change.  But, there nuances in the numbers.  The drop in unemployment was due to people moving from "unemployed" to "not in the labour force.  Hours worked were also dropping.  All in all, maybe the good employment figures were not as good as they first looked.  Maybe that means the RBA won't raise interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day.

STW Chart (STW - ETF for the XJO).

That's a big drop today for STW -1.4%.  XJO was down -1.36%.  

Now - on such a big down day and such "good" employment numbers, I'd expect the smart money to be selling down.  But - if you look at the volume figure (second bottom panel) volume was quite subdued.  So maybe the smart money was holding back and it was the dumb money having a knee jerk reaction to the raw employmnet number.  

Overall - on the face of it - a poor day on our market.  All eleven sectors were down, with the interest rate sensitive IT sector performing worst -1.84%.

In early European trading, EURO STOXX600 -0.93%.  Dow Futures -0.22%.

Fed Head Powell gives a speech in the U.S. tonight, and the drama in the Middle East continues.  Powell's speech might be a catalyst for market movements.  I doubt he is going to say anything bullish for the market.

19/10/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight:  Stocks down, Bond yields up, Energy up, Gold up.  That all points to a very worried market.

Dow Jones -0.98%.  SP500 -1.34%.  Nasdaq -1.62%.  Small Caps -1.88%.  Banks -2.49%.

SP500.

 

SP500 remains between important support and resistance.  A break lower would be bearish.

 

Commodities.

Commodities +0.89%.  Energy +1.3%.  Base Metals +0.06%.  Agriculture +0.27%.  Gold +1.45%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down heavily -1.3%.All sectors are down, most more than -1%.

18/10/23. Wed. Evening Finspiration Report.

 In a day of choppy trading, XJO finished up today +0.3%.

XJO remains in a consolidation pattern at the top of its recent counter-trend rally.

Tocay's candle was within the range of Tuesday - which usually suggests indecision.  That goes along with the choppy nature of intra-day trading.

Trading was more or less evenly spread between sectors, with five up and six down.  Best was Energy +2.47%.  Worst was Utilities -0.95%.

Gold Miners today did well, Gold Miners ETF up +3,66%. The ETF is in a strong up-trend with the 2 Day EMA, 13 Day EMA and 20 Day MA all above the zero line.  Volume was high today, so this might be reaching a climax.

Treasury Wines surged higher today on optimism about the Chinese market.  TWE +4.98%.

BHP presented its quarterly statement today which was met favourably by the market, BHP +0.68% well above the result for the XJO of +0.3%.

I checked on the short-selling list today and noted that lithium stocks are prominent.  Pilbara (PLS) is the most shorted stock, but other lithium miners are also prominent, e.g., Liontown Resources, Core Litium and Sayona Mining.

In early trading this evening, Europe is flat and Dow Futures flat - that's despite the news of the terrible explosion at a Gaza hospital where hundreds have died.  Gold, however, continues to rise, currently up about +0.8%.

Tomorrow in Australia is a heavy duty reporting day with employment data due.

17/10/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX was going great guns this morning, up >1%.  Then the RBA minutes landed around 11.30 a.m. and the market dropped like a stone.  XJO finished up +0.41% - down about -0.6% from its high.

XJO remains in consolidation at the top of its counter-trend rally.  Today's action was disappointing to say the least.

IT was again the best performing index, up +1.33%.  

The retailing sectors were both negative with Discretionary -0.26% and Staples -0.14%.  Probably both fell as a result of the RBA minutes (hawkish).

Health -1.21%, remains in the Critical Care Department (pardon the pun).

Real Estate wasn't phased too much by the RBA, up +1.12%.

Here's the chart for VAP (ETF for Real Estate).

Notice how spikes in Volume tend to initiate changes in trend.

Currently, Volume is very low - the chart is barely moving.

Until tomorrow.  Good luck.

17/10/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. stock market benchmarks were positive last night.  Gold down, Energy flat.

Dow Jones +0.93%.  SP500 +1.06%.  Nasdaq +1.2%.  Small Caps +1.78%.  Banks +1.52%.

Dow Jones now in a new up-trend (higher high, and higher low).  Others remain in consolidation phase.

The American market is once again in reporting season when movements in the major indices become quite unpredictable.

SP500

SP500 is knocking on horizontal resistance with the 50-Day MA just above that. A break above the 50-Day would be bullish.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.22%.  Energy -0.17%.  Base Metals -0.22%.  Agriculture +0.09%.  Gold -0.49%.

 After an hour of trading this morning, the ASX is very strong.  XJO +1%.  Ten of 11 sectors are positive.  IT is leading the way up >2%.  Yesterday it was the weakest sector.  IT, long term, is the best performing sector but short-term it is very volatile.  That's great for traders - but ulcer producing for you are a nervous long-term investor who watches the day-to-day gyrations..

 

16/10/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO weakened again today, down -0.35%.

Here's the chart fort STW (ETF for XJO)

 STW formed an inside day - inside the range of Friday.

It is opposite a Congestion Zone and sitting on a support level - so no wonder we had a narrow range doji candle today.  Not much conviction in the market today.

2-Day EMA of the Force Index is now below the 13-Day EMA of the FI - that's a bearish move.

The only sectors having sizeable upside moves today were Energy +0.63% and Materials +0.4%.  Staples was flat +0.03%.

The weakest sector by far was IT - down a whopping -2.79%.

Gold Miners continues to benefit from the War in the Middle East.  GDX up today +3.2%.

In early European trade this evening, STOXX600 is flat -0.05%.  Gold has dropped -0.83% (which might be a good sign about the ME War).  Oil has also dropped -0.21%.

Dow Futures are up +0.29%

14/10/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday, ASX was weak.  Overnight the U.S. was mixed, mostly down.  The big news - prices of Oil and Gold are soaring.

XJO Chart.

XJO down -0.56% after forming a three-day candle-stick reversal pattern right at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Expect more downside, but ... look to buy the dip.

Overnight in the U.S.

 

Dow Jones +0.12%.  SP500 -0.5%.  Nasdaq -1.23%.  Small Caps -1.16%. Banks -0.39%.

SP500.

 Like the XJO, SP500 is failing at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Look to buy the dip.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +2.64%.  Energy +3.92%.  Base Metals +0.00%.  Agriculture +0.46%.  Gold +3.21%.

Gold tends to rise quickly in the early stages of military clashes, but then reverts to its previous level.  So, don't expect POG to continue soaring.  Like most markets, Gold tends to act on a 20-Day/40Day Cycle.  It is now 17 trading days since the high in Gold on 20 Sept.  So, we might get another three days to the upside in this cycle.