Wednesday, November 17, 2021

 Wed. p.m. 17/11/21.  XJO fell heavily today.

XJO down -068%.


Today's action takes the chart back to the 50-Day MA.  That will probably act as support for tomorrow.  But it won't resolve anything as to ultimate direction.

XJO is in a trading range 7318-7472.

The medium-term trend remains up, and the long-term trend remains up.  

The short-term trend remains in consolidation - or is indecisive.  We just have to wait this out.

Probably the biggest drag on today's market was the fall in Commonwealth Bank after its report.  It was down a whopping -8.07%.  That takes it down to a major support zone and just above the 200-Day MA.




CBA might fall a bit more, but the 200-Day MA looks likely to be support.  That could be a buy area for the intrepid.


Tuesday, November 16, 2021

 Wed. a.m. 17/11/21.  U.S. stocks move higher.

Overnight:


Dow Jones +0.15%.  SP500 0.39%.  Nasdaq +0.76%.  Small Caps +0.26%.  Banks -0.26%.

SP500:



SP500 has stopped at horizontal resistance.

Negative divergences suggest consolidation or, perhaps, a pull-back here.

A break above resistance would see a continuation of the bullish rally, but that seems the least likely of the three scenarios.

Commodities:


Commodities Index -0.14%.  Base Metals -1.05%.  Energy +0.5%.  Gold -0.72%.

Iron Ore up +1.4%.  Despite the rise in iron ore prices, RIO was down -1.74% in the U.S. and BHP was down -1.9%.

Overnight Oz Futures are up +0.3% suggesting a firmer start to our market today.  That probably won't be enough to break overhead resistance.


 Tue. p.m. 16/11/21.  Australian stock market performed poorly today.

XJO down -0.67%.


Today's candle is a bearish engulfing candle pulling down from overhead resistance.  

Obvious support lies with the 50-Day MA which coincides with the Supertrend Line (1.5/7).

If we get a bounce off that we can expect another assault on overhead resistance.  Maybe this time it might crumble.

I expect some more downside before we get a move back up.

Breadth today was poor with 508 stocks rising and 908 stocks falling.  Only one sector was up today - Information Technology (XIJ) up just +0.2%.

Materials (XMJ) was the worst performer -1.7%. 


The three-day candlestick group is bearish.  It has found horizontal resistance too much at this stage.  Expect more downside.

Monday, November 15, 2021

 Tue. a.m. 16/11/21.  New York Market flat.

I've been out of the office for a few days, so this is the first post since Friday morning.

Overnight:


Dow Jones -0.04%.  SP500  -0.00%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Small Caps +0.02%.  Banks +0.34%

SP500:


The medium-term and long-term trends remain up.  The short-term trend is indecisive.

The SP500 appears to be carving out a bear flag.  The Supertrend 1.5/7 has turned negative.  The next move is likely to be to the downside.

Commodities:


Commodities Index +0.05%.  Energy +0.34%.  Base Metals -1.45%.  Gold -0.15%.

Iron Ore -0.7%.

Overnight Oz Futures are down -0.5%.

It looks like we'll have a down day today.

Yesterday in Australia:


XJO was up +0.36% yesterday, which took the index up to horizontal resistance at 7472.  Given overnight conditions that is likely to hold.

At this stage, XJO remains within its trading range 7312-7472.  Watch for a break-out one way or the other.

Thursday, November 11, 2021

 Fri. a.m. 12/11/21.  Mixed results in New York trading.

Overnight:


Dow Jones -0.44%.  SP500 +0.06%.  Nasdaq +0.52%.  Small Caps +0.66%.  Banks +0.63%

It was a relatively quiet session of trading with the bond market closed.  Volume was down and indices saw little movement.

SP500:


SP500 scored an inside day candle with intra-day selling evident to finish just on the positive side of the ledger.

The short-term trend remains down with last night's candle still below the short-term line and the Supertrend Line (1.5/7).

I'm still expecting more downside in the index.

The medium-term trend remains up.

Commodities:




Commodities Index +0.71%.  Energy +0.17%.  Base Metals +1.88% on heavy volume.  Gold +0.56%.

Spot Iron Ore +5.3%.  That had a booster shot in the U.S. for BHP +5% and RIO +4.4%.  Expect another strong day for the big iron ore miners today.

Overnight Oz Futures +0.4%.

 Thu. p.m. 11/11/21.  A wild day on the Ozzie market today.

XJO down -0.57%, but it was down more than twice that at one stage today.


XJO crashed through the 20-Day Moving Average and the 50-Day Moving Average today, but then it bounced.  It finished up above the 50-Day MA but below the 20-Day MA.

Such volatility could mean that end of this pull-back, but until we see definite signs of a reversal, it'a best to stay cautious.

11 Nov. is Veterans Day in America, but the stock market continues to trade.  The bond market is closed and that may affect trading in stocks.


Wednesday, November 10, 2021

 Thu. a.m. 11/11/21.  U.S. Indices continue to retreat

Overnight:


Dow Jones -0.66%.  SP500 -0.82%.  Nasdaq -1.66%.  Small Caps -1.02%.  Banks +0.22%.

SP500:


SP500 is now short-term bearish with no nearby support level.  First port of call seems to be the 20-Day Moving Average at 4588.  SP500 is currently at 4647, about 60 points away from support.  It was down about 39 points today.

Commodities:


Commodities Index -1.26%.  Energy -2.5%.  Base Metals -0.72%.  Gold +1.09%.  Commodities Index and Energy have failed at the 20-Day Moving Average.  Expect more downside.

Iron Ore -3.2%.

Overnight Oz Futures -0.1%.  That's a modest drop compared to overnight markets in stocks and commodities.  Traders must be expecting strength in our banks today.


Finspiration Australia. 14/11/23. Tues. Morning Report.

Mixed Results in New York.  Energy up. NAB ex-dividend today. Dow Jones +0.16%.  SP500 -0.08%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Small Caps -0.07%.  Banks -0...