Yesterday, XJO up +0.21%, Dow Jones down -1.12%, Nasdaq up +0.38%, Energy up +1.4%, Gold up +1.16%, US Dollar flat.

Below is a weekly chart for XJO:

XJO is down -1.07% for the week.  

It is at the Oblique Supporting Trend Line and close to the 200-Week Moving Average.  That suggests we should see an upside move in the near future.  

U.S. Indices.

U.S. Indices were mixed overnight with Dow down and Nasdaq up.

Dow Jones -1.12%.  SP500 -0.48%.  Nasdaq +0.38%.  Small Caps -1.01%.  Banks -2.34%.

RSIs for Dow and SPX are both below 30 - extremely oversold.  They don't go much lower without a rebound.  It probably all depends on geo-political events.

SP500

 The 3-Day EMA of Volume continues to rise and is well above the 13-DEMA and the 20-DSMA.

That suggests we are close to a selling climax which should see a rebound.

Watch for the 3-Day EMA of Force Index to rise above the 20-DSMA and for the Dynamic Zone Stochastic fo rise above its lower band.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +1.34%.  Energy +1.4%.  Base Metals +1.38%.  Agriculture +0.92%.  Gold +1.16%.

Gold is now into the overbought zone with a RSI at 74.53.  This may be suggesting that its state as a safe haven may be coming to an end.

Energy is sitting around its 50-Day MA, i.e., about mid-range of recent activity.  That's a bit surprising given the current turmoil in the Middle East.  A candle-volume chart, however, shows a somewhat different picture:

Energy had huge volumes Thursday and Friday, a week ago.  That suggests that the current uptrend which began when Hamas invaded Israel in early October may be coming to an end.  Those huge volume occurred at a significant resistance level.  Energy has pulled back a little since then on lower volume, but Wednesday was a very volatile day.

MAs on the Force Index (three of them) are all sitting mid-range.  This could go either way, but given the big volumes a week ago, it wouldn't take much to nudge DBE lower.  That would be a plus for the American market.

26/10/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO finished down -0.61% but well off its early lows.

RSI is well oversold currently sitting at 31.18.  Currently, it is showing a small positive divergence from the low of 6 October, the date of the incursion by Hamas into Israel.  MACD Histogram also shows a positive divergence.

The index is in a long down-trend from early August, currently down -9.27%.  That's close to the "official" definition of a correction -10%.

This appears to be setting up for a rapid reversal to the upside.  Wait.

Yesterday, we saw some disappointing inflation figures - higher than expected.  That may put pressure on the RBA to raise interest rates.

RBA Governor Michelle Bullock gave a speech today which was relatively dovish - not what was expected.  As a result, likelihood of a rate hike fell to 31%.

Only two sectors were up today, Utilities +1.3% and Materials +0.14%.

Worst sector today was IT -2.56% and Property -2.07%.  Both are interest rate sensitive sectors.  I guess they didn't read the RBA memo.  :)

Europe is down heavily in early trade.  STOXX600 -0.95%
 

26/10/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. Stocks fall into negative territory, with Nasdaq down strongly.

Dow Jones -0.32%.  SP500 -1.43%.  Nasdaq -2.43%.  Small Caps -1.26%.  Banks -0.3%.

SP500

 SP500 remains in a down-trend - but is oversold so we could see a counter-trend rally.

MACD Histogram and Force Index are both showing positive divergences, so that reinforces the idea that we will see a counter-trend rally.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.73%.  Energy +1.36%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture -0.46%.  Gold +0.42%.

Energy is usually inversely correlated to Stocks.  Energy up, Stocks down.

After an hour of trading this morning, XJO is down about -0.6% but off its lows.

25/10/23. Wed. Evening Finspiration Report.

 Well - it could have been worse, i.e., the inflation numbers today.  But they were bad enough, and blew up a promising start to the Ozzie market this morning.  XJO finished flat -0.04%.

The long upper and lower wicks on the small bodied candlestick today gives some idea of the violent jerking around suffered by the market today.

Yesterday's candle was an inside day (range inside the range of the previous day).  Today's candle remained within the range of Monday.  So nothing much has changed.  Look for a break of today's high or low for some idea of future direction.

25/10/23. Wed. Morning Finspiration Report.

 Positive results overnight in the U.S.  Energy down - that's good for the U.S. market.  Gold down.

Dow Jones +0.62%.  SP500 +0.73%.  Nasdaq +0.93%.  Small Caps +0.66%.  Banks -0.03%.

SP500

 SP500 has bounced nicely off the 200-Day MA and horizontal support.  That's a good start.  It needs a lot more work to prove its bullish credentials.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.09%.  Energy -1.94%.  Base Metals +1.33%.  Agriculture -0.09%.

After an hour of trading this morning, XJO is up nearly +0.4%.

Late news:  XJO has now plunged - as at 11.30 is down about -0.2%.  Inflation figures must have been bad for the markets - interest rates to rise?
 

24/10/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX had a low volatility day today after three days of high volatility.  XJO up +0.19% but well off session's high of +0.5%.

Today was the narrowest range of the past four days and an inside day.  Notation for such an event is ID/NR4.  This is an infrequent pattern.  A break above or below from the high/low of today should involve an increase in volatility and provide short-term direction.   Click here for more on this pattern.

Given that the XJO is oversold and showing a positive divergence on the MACD Histogram, I would think that the most likely direction is up.

Six Sectors were up today.  Best was Materials (XMJ) +0.85%.

The five Sectors down today were:  Staples -1.02%, Utilities -0.51%, Health -0.29%, Property -0.23% and Communications -0.2%.  There's a bias in that group to Defensives.  So we had some switching today out of Risk Off into Risk On.  That's a positive sign.

Economic data out today showed a slowing in the economy.  Manufacturing PMI down from 48.7 in September to 48 in October.  Services PMI dropped from 51.8 in September to 47.6 in October.  Numbers above 50 indicate expansion.  Under 50 indicates contraction.  That's good news for interest rates (going down) but bad news for the economy.

In early Tuesday trading in Europe, stocks are down a little, STOXX600 -0.17%.  Dow Futures up +0.24%.  That's not necessarily a great guide to what will happen today as we've seen in the past.

It will be a busy night (Oz Time) for company reports in the U.S.  Some of the biggies coming Tues. are: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa and Coca-Cola.  Those reports could be market moving.

24/10/23.

 Last night in America major indices finished mixed.  After the lunch session the major indices were all at least marginally higher, but afternoon trading sent Dow Jones and SP500 into negative territory while Nasdaq remained positive.

Sydney Futures finished in negative territory.

America Last Night.

 Dow Jones -0.59%.  SP500 -0.17%.  Nasdaq +0.27%.  Small Caps -0.95%.  Banks -0.95%.

SP500

 Last night's candle shows long wicks on top of a narrow body.  That's indicative of a major battle taking place between opposing forces (bulls and bears).  It is notable that the battle is taking place right at the 200-Day MA - usually taken as the dividing line between bull and bear market.

2-Day EMA of Force Index was low enough on Friday to suggesst a possible low (below bottom Bollinger Band).  It moved up last night.  It needs to get above both the 13-Day EMA and the centre line (20-DMA) of the Bollinger Bands to feel sure that a low is in place.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.64%.  Energy -1.74%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture +0.05%.  Gold -0.34%.

After an hour of trading today XJO is up about +0.3%.