18/10/23. Wed. Evening Finspiration Report.

 In a day of choppy trading, XJO finished up today +0.3%.

XJO remains in a consolidation pattern at the top of its recent counter-trend rally.

Tocay's candle was within the range of Tuesday - which usually suggests indecision.  That goes along with the choppy nature of intra-day trading.

Trading was more or less evenly spread between sectors, with five up and six down.  Best was Energy +2.47%.  Worst was Utilities -0.95%.

Gold Miners today did well, Gold Miners ETF up +3,66%. The ETF is in a strong up-trend with the 2 Day EMA, 13 Day EMA and 20 Day MA all above the zero line.  Volume was high today, so this might be reaching a climax.

Treasury Wines surged higher today on optimism about the Chinese market.  TWE +4.98%.

BHP presented its quarterly statement today which was met favourably by the market, BHP +0.68% well above the result for the XJO of +0.3%.

I checked on the short-selling list today and noted that lithium stocks are prominent.  Pilbara (PLS) is the most shorted stock, but other lithium miners are also prominent, e.g., Liontown Resources, Core Litium and Sayona Mining.

In early trading this evening, Europe is flat and Dow Futures flat - that's despite the news of the terrible explosion at a Gaza hospital where hundreds have died.  Gold, however, continues to rise, currently up about +0.8%.

Tomorrow in Australia is a heavy duty reporting day with employment data due.

17/10/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX was going great guns this morning, up >1%.  Then the RBA minutes landed around 11.30 a.m. and the market dropped like a stone.  XJO finished up +0.41% - down about -0.6% from its high.

XJO remains in consolidation at the top of its counter-trend rally.  Today's action was disappointing to say the least.

IT was again the best performing index, up +1.33%.  

The retailing sectors were both negative with Discretionary -0.26% and Staples -0.14%.  Probably both fell as a result of the RBA minutes (hawkish).

Health -1.21%, remains in the Critical Care Department (pardon the pun).

Real Estate wasn't phased too much by the RBA, up +1.12%.

Here's the chart for VAP (ETF for Real Estate).

Notice how spikes in Volume tend to initiate changes in trend.

Currently, Volume is very low - the chart is barely moving.

Until tomorrow.  Good luck.

17/10/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. stock market benchmarks were positive last night.  Gold down, Energy flat.

Dow Jones +0.93%.  SP500 +1.06%.  Nasdaq +1.2%.  Small Caps +1.78%.  Banks +1.52%.

Dow Jones now in a new up-trend (higher high, and higher low).  Others remain in consolidation phase.

The American market is once again in reporting season when movements in the major indices become quite unpredictable.

SP500

SP500 is knocking on horizontal resistance with the 50-Day MA just above that. A break above the 50-Day would be bullish.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.22%.  Energy -0.17%.  Base Metals -0.22%.  Agriculture +0.09%.  Gold -0.49%.

 After an hour of trading this morning, the ASX is very strong.  XJO +1%.  Ten of 11 sectors are positive.  IT is leading the way up >2%.  Yesterday it was the weakest sector.  IT, long term, is the best performing sector but short-term it is very volatile.  That's great for traders - but ulcer producing for you are a nervous long-term investor who watches the day-to-day gyrations..

 

16/10/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO weakened again today, down -0.35%.

Here's the chart fort STW (ETF for XJO)

 STW formed an inside day - inside the range of Friday.

It is opposite a Congestion Zone and sitting on a support level - so no wonder we had a narrow range doji candle today.  Not much conviction in the market today.

2-Day EMA of the Force Index is now below the 13-Day EMA of the FI - that's a bearish move.

The only sectors having sizeable upside moves today were Energy +0.63% and Materials +0.4%.  Staples was flat +0.03%.

The weakest sector by far was IT - down a whopping -2.79%.

Gold Miners continues to benefit from the War in the Middle East.  GDX up today +3.2%.

In early European trade this evening, STOXX600 is flat -0.05%.  Gold has dropped -0.83% (which might be a good sign about the ME War).  Oil has also dropped -0.21%.

Dow Futures are up +0.29%

14/10/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday, ASX was weak.  Overnight the U.S. was mixed, mostly down.  The big news - prices of Oil and Gold are soaring.

XJO Chart.

XJO down -0.56% after forming a three-day candle-stick reversal pattern right at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Expect more downside, but ... look to buy the dip.

Overnight in the U.S.

 

Dow Jones +0.12%.  SP500 -0.5%.  Nasdaq -1.23%.  Small Caps -1.16%. Banks -0.39%.

SP500.

 Like the XJO, SP500 is failing at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Look to buy the dip.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +2.64%.  Energy +3.92%.  Base Metals +0.00%.  Agriculture +0.46%.  Gold +3.21%.

Gold tends to rise quickly in the early stages of military clashes, but then reverts to its previous level.  So, don't expect POG to continue soaring.  Like most markets, Gold tends to act on a 20-Day/40Day Cycle.  It is now 17 trading days since the high in Gold on 20 Sept.  So, we might get another three days to the upside in this cycle.

 

13/10/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 

Overnight, U.S. markets fell.  Intraday buying in the afternoon session served to soften the losses.

 Dow Jones -0.51%.  SP500 -0.62%.  Nasdaq -0.63%.  Small Caps -1.91%.  Banks -1%.

SP500

 

SP500 is between the 50-Day MA and the 20-Day MA.  It is also above the 8-Day EMA.  That suggests we will see a bit more consolidation before the market decides which way to go, up of down.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.04%.  Energy -0.37%.  Base metals -0.71%.  Agriculture -0.93%.  Gold -0.3%.

After an early plunge, XJO is now down only about -0.3%.  This suggests the oz market will have minimal losses today.

12/10/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO finished just on the positive side today after intra-day selling knocked the top off early gains.

XJO up just +0.04% today.

Horizontal Resistance at 7090 and Kijun Sen proved just to hard for the XJO and we have a bearish shooting star candle today.

Despite the flat finish today, seven of 11 sectors were up, led by Financials (XXJ) +0.86%.  Health (XHJ) was the weakest -4.52% after CSL fell -6.3% on heavy volume, and RMD fell -5.26%.

Chart for CSL:

CSL is now down about -24% since its peak in early June.  That takes it into bear market territory.

Plenty of possible positive divergences exist on the chart indicators so we could see a reactionary upside bounce in the near future.

I talked about Bank of Queensland yesterday.  Here's today's chart:

BOQ rebounded strongly today off important horizontal support.  That suggests that the worst is over for BOQ - but we still need to see more upside to confirm.

Europe has started its trading session in positive ground with STOXX600 up +0.77%.

Dow Futures up +0.3%.  

Those are positive signs for Oz tomorrow if they can hold overnight.