17/10/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. stock market benchmarks were positive last night.  Gold down, Energy flat.

Dow Jones +0.93%.  SP500 +1.06%.  Nasdaq +1.2%.  Small Caps +1.78%.  Banks +1.52%.

Dow Jones now in a new up-trend (higher high, and higher low).  Others remain in consolidation phase.

The American market is once again in reporting season when movements in the major indices become quite unpredictable.

SP500

SP500 is knocking on horizontal resistance with the 50-Day MA just above that. A break above the 50-Day would be bullish.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.22%.  Energy -0.17%.  Base Metals -0.22%.  Agriculture +0.09%.  Gold -0.49%.

 After an hour of trading this morning, the ASX is very strong.  XJO +1%.  Ten of 11 sectors are positive.  IT is leading the way up >2%.  Yesterday it was the weakest sector.  IT, long term, is the best performing sector but short-term it is very volatile.  That's great for traders - but ulcer producing for you are a nervous long-term investor who watches the day-to-day gyrations..

 

16/10/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO weakened again today, down -0.35%.

Here's the chart fort STW (ETF for XJO)

 STW formed an inside day - inside the range of Friday.

It is opposite a Congestion Zone and sitting on a support level - so no wonder we had a narrow range doji candle today.  Not much conviction in the market today.

2-Day EMA of the Force Index is now below the 13-Day EMA of the FI - that's a bearish move.

The only sectors having sizeable upside moves today were Energy +0.63% and Materials +0.4%.  Staples was flat +0.03%.

The weakest sector by far was IT - down a whopping -2.79%.

Gold Miners continues to benefit from the War in the Middle East.  GDX up today +3.2%.

In early European trade this evening, STOXX600 is flat -0.05%.  Gold has dropped -0.83% (which might be a good sign about the ME War).  Oil has also dropped -0.21%.

Dow Futures are up +0.29%

14/10/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday, ASX was weak.  Overnight the U.S. was mixed, mostly down.  The big news - prices of Oil and Gold are soaring.

XJO Chart.

XJO down -0.56% after forming a three-day candle-stick reversal pattern right at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Expect more downside, but ... look to buy the dip.

Overnight in the U.S.

 

Dow Jones +0.12%.  SP500 -0.5%.  Nasdaq -1.23%.  Small Caps -1.16%. Banks -0.39%.

SP500.

 Like the XJO, SP500 is failing at horizontal resistance and the Kijun Sen.  Look to buy the dip.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +2.64%.  Energy +3.92%.  Base Metals +0.00%.  Agriculture +0.46%.  Gold +3.21%.

Gold tends to rise quickly in the early stages of military clashes, but then reverts to its previous level.  So, don't expect POG to continue soaring.  Like most markets, Gold tends to act on a 20-Day/40Day Cycle.  It is now 17 trading days since the high in Gold on 20 Sept.  So, we might get another three days to the upside in this cycle.

 

13/10/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 

Overnight, U.S. markets fell.  Intraday buying in the afternoon session served to soften the losses.

 Dow Jones -0.51%.  SP500 -0.62%.  Nasdaq -0.63%.  Small Caps -1.91%.  Banks -1%.

SP500

 

SP500 is between the 50-Day MA and the 20-Day MA.  It is also above the 8-Day EMA.  That suggests we will see a bit more consolidation before the market decides which way to go, up of down.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.04%.  Energy -0.37%.  Base metals -0.71%.  Agriculture -0.93%.  Gold -0.3%.

After an early plunge, XJO is now down only about -0.3%.  This suggests the oz market will have minimal losses today.

12/10/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO finished just on the positive side today after intra-day selling knocked the top off early gains.

XJO up just +0.04% today.

Horizontal Resistance at 7090 and Kijun Sen proved just to hard for the XJO and we have a bearish shooting star candle today.

Despite the flat finish today, seven of 11 sectors were up, led by Financials (XXJ) +0.86%.  Health (XHJ) was the weakest -4.52% after CSL fell -6.3% on heavy volume, and RMD fell -5.26%.

Chart for CSL:

CSL is now down about -24% since its peak in early June.  That takes it into bear market territory.

Plenty of possible positive divergences exist on the chart indicators so we could see a reactionary upside bounce in the near future.

I talked about Bank of Queensland yesterday.  Here's today's chart:

BOQ rebounded strongly today off important horizontal support.  That suggests that the worst is over for BOQ - but we still need to see more upside to confirm.

Europe has started its trading session in positive ground with STOXX600 up +0.77%.

Dow Futures up +0.3%.  

Those are positive signs for Oz tomorrow if they can hold overnight.

12/10/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight, U.S.stocks finished on the positive side after afternoon buying erased early losses.  Energy down, Gold up.

 

Dow Jones +0.19%.  SP500 +0.43%, Nasdaq +0.71%, Small Caps +0.16%.  Banks -0.13%.

SP500

SP500 has had a good run-up and is now above the 20-Day MA and Kijun Sen (dotted line).  It is also well above the 8-Day EMA.

MACD Histogram is above its zero line and RSI14 is above its mid-line.  That's a bullish indication.

On the negative side, SP500 is now opposite a High Volume Node.  These tend to act like magnets to charts and often act as resistance levels.  

We may see some consolidation or a pull-back here.

 

 Commodities

Commodities Index -0.57%.  Energy -0.71%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture -0.65%.  Gold +0.73%.  Gold tends to be inversely correlated to the U.S. Dollar.  USD was flat last night +0.09%.

After an hour of trading this morning, despite my pessimism over the past couple of days, ASX is up again today, about +0.3%.

I talked about Bank of Queensland last night. BOQ  is up >2% this morning, so it is holding at horizontal support.

The big disappointment this morning amongst the large caps is Resmed (RMD) down -5%.

11/10/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up for fifth day in a row, +0.68%.

This has been a strong upside movement but the XJO is still not overbought.  RSI14 is at 51.02, just past its midpoint so there could be more upside.

The chart is now at the next horizontal resistance level, so we might get some consolidation now after five strong upside days.

Information Technology (XIJ) was the best performer today, +1.7%.  I take that as a good sign as IT is a key growth sector and the market now seems happy to bet on growth.  Discretionary was next best at +1.23%.  That's another important sector for a bull market.

Ten out of 11 sectors were positive today with Health flat at 0.00%.

Bank of Queensland reported today and the market was not happy.  BOQ down -7.44% on heavy volume.

BOQ has been under pressure for a long time - you can see that by the down sloping 200-Day MA (that's the black line sloping down in the top half of the chart).  BOQ is now back down to an important support zone.  If it breaks down through that it might keep going for a while.

CSL held its AGM today and the market was non-plussed by that even.  CSL finished flat.