Weekly Finspiration Report.9/10/23.

 The past week was positive for the Australian stock market, but weakness began to show up in the latter part of the week.

XJO Weekly Chart.  

 XJO up this week, +1.39%, erasing the loss from the previous week.  The weakness in the latter part of the week is shown by the long wick on top of the week's candle.

XJO is currently trapped between two nearby support and resistance lines. 

XJO Daily Chart.

 

 The past three days shows a 3-day Candle-stick reversal pattern, an up day, a doji candle followed by a down day.  The Doji candle appeared at horizontal resistance and resistance of the kijun sen (dotted line).

Ichimoku Theory suggests that if the chart is below the Kumo Cloud - sell the rallies.  That's what happened this week.

Sector Performances this week.

Only one sector was down this week, Health -2.5%.  Health has been a basket case for many weeks.  Its problems were compounded this week by a big fall in CSL, its largerst component.  CSL -3.52%

 

The best performing sector was Utilities,  up +5.09%.  Utilities can be a gay deceiver as it is a small sector and a big move in one component can skew the result.  But this week there was plenty of action in Utility stocks.  Origin, +6.31%, AGL +5.19%, APA +3.22%, IFT +1.37%, MCY +1.73%.  So Utilities seems to be back on a bullish trend after being weak since late July.

Gold Miners (XGD) has been the beneficiary of fear generated by the Hamas/Israel War.  Gold and Gold Miners tend to have an upside knee-jerk reaction in the early stages of war and then tends to revert to its mean.

 

Energy (XEJ) was also a beneficiary this week of the war in the Middle East.  XEJ +3.27%.  Energy tends to get jerked around by geo-political events.  Best to look at the trend in Energy rather than depend on one week's figure.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

• Above their 200-DMA:  last week 36%, this week 35%.
• Above their 50-DMA:  last week 15%, this week 32%
• Above their 10-DMA:  last week 32%, this week 72%.

These figures are consistent with the big rise in the XJO this week - they also suggest that it has been a dead-cat bounce.  Until we see a confirmed up-trend (a higher high and a higher low) it pays to remain cautious.

SPY, tracking ETF for SP5500 - American Market.

SPY has pulled back right at the Point of Control on the Volume Profile (left side of chart) and the Kijun Sen of the Ichimoku System.

 

Conslusion.

 

Until we see a confirmed new up-trend (higher high and higher low) I think it is best to treat the current upside move as a counter-trend rally (a.ka. dead-cat bounce).

 

 Friday night (Oz Time) saw a remarkable session on the SP500.  The candle is a "bullish engulfing candle", which, when it occurs at the end of a trend, is a strong "buy" signal.

Friday's action took the Index back above Supertrend (10/1) and 8Day EMA.  Another "buy" signal.

 

Strong Stocks v Weak Stocks 100 Leaders.

This week saw a new record in this metric (an invention of yours truly).

 

This week there were no Strong Stocks in the ASX 100 Leaders. - the first time this has occurred since I started records back in February, 2021.   I classify all stocks according to a variety of timing indsicators and give each stock a rating of 0-14.  Stocks with a rating of 14 are classed as "Strong Stocks".  Stocks with a rating of 0 are classed as "Weak Stocks".

Conclusion.

September was, predictably, poor - worse than usual - but not as bad as September 2022.  Small mercies..

We're coming into October, usually a better month than September.  There are plenty of signs to suggest that the worst may now be past and we could be looking at some upside from here.

I think Financials (XXJ) are likely to lead the way higher.

How much the War in Israel will affect markets is unknown - that's why it's a black swan event.  Probably for a few days - then it will blow over.  

Meanwhile, observers remain cautious about the situation in Serbia/Kosovo - another flash point which could blow up.

Good Luck

7/10/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Overnight:  Jobs Report better than expected.  Dow flips early losses into big gains.  Sydney Futures up.

 Dow Jones +0.87%.  SP500 +1.18%.  Nasdaq +1.6%.  Small Caps +0.56%.  Banks +0.75%.

SP500.

Last night created a bullish engulfing candle, which, coming at the low end of a down trend, probably means the end of that down trend.

Short term, the candle finished above the Supertrend (10/1) and the 8-Day EMA.  That usually means more upside.

For now, the short-term trend is up - stay with the trend.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.38%.  Energy +0.05%.  Base Metals +1.05%.  Agriculture +0.65%.  Gold +0.52%.

Sydney Futures are up +0.83% - that augurs well for the ASX on Monday.

Good luck.
 

6/10/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. markets consolidating at the low end of recent downtrend.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 -0.13%.  Nasdaq -0.12%.  Small Caps -0.16%.  Banks +0.51%.

SP500.

 SP500 is consolidating in a Low Volume Node which suggests the next move will be to the upside.

I've noted previously the positive divergences on the MACD Histogram which also suggests a move to the upside.

Friday in the U.S. is Jobs Report day, so we might see some action tonight in the U.S.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.58%.  Energy -1.45%.  Base Metals -0.4%.  Agriculture +0.5%.  Gold -0.18%.

Energy is now oversold so we might see some upside in the near future.  

Gold is very oversold and has been falling now for nine days.  Downside momentum has slowed and volume has fallen off, so we should see some upside soon.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning. XJO is flat +0.04%.  No surprise there.

Best performing Large Caps are insurers, MPL and QBE.  Those are in the Financials sector which is the best performer today so far, +0.55%
 

5/10/23 Thurs. Evening Finspiration Report

XJO rises off horizontal support.

 XJO rose back above the crucial 6900 level today to finish up +0.51%.

If 6900 fails - I hate to think where we are headed,  Next major support is at the 200-Day MA, that's at 6760.  Horizontal support is at 6440.

In early trading in Europe, STOXX600 is flat +0.04%.  Dow Futures -0.38%.

Good luck.

4/10/23. Wed. evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX fell again today.  XJO -0.77%

XJO Chart:

XJO down today -0.77%.

Today, XJO made a marginal break below the 6900 support level.  That may not be enough to suggest that further downside is likely.

RSI is at 27.7, which is extremely oversold.  That suggests that the next major movement will be to the upside.

XJO saw something of a reversal to the upside in the last hour of trading today.  It may not mean a lot but last hour action usually means institutional activity.

Ten out of eleven Sectors were negative today.  The only positive was Utilities +0.34%.

The worst sector today was Financials, -1.53%.  That's the biggest sector by far in the ASX.  The big fall today was part of the world-wide fall in markets due to surging bond yields - a negative for markets.  The surge in bond yields are indicating to traders that America is headed for recession.  Maybe - maybe not.

Europe in early trade is flat, +0.12%.  Dow Futures -0.06%.

4/10/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 

It's Fat Bear Week in Alaska - Fat Bear Week is a celebration of success and survival. It is a way to celebrate the resilience, adaptability and strength of Katmai’s brown bears. 

hmmm.  Sounds about right for the Stock Market, too.

 

U.S. down heavily overnight.

Dow Jones -1.29%.  SP500 -1.37%.  Nasdaq -1.87%.  Small Caps -1.74%.  Banks -2.13%.

Four out of five of the above indices have RSIs below 30 - that's "very oversold".

SP500.

 The Positive Divergence on the MACD Histogram remains in play and in the past five days a secondary Positive Divergence has shown up, increasing the likelihood of a move back to the upside.

That optimism may be misplaced as the chart seems destined to meet important dual supports, major horizontal support which coincides with the 200-Day MA.  Such support usually wins out.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.44%.  Energy flat +0.11%.  Base Metals -1.8%.  Agriculture -0.97%.  Gold -0.28%.

Sydney Futures - -0.5%

3/10/23. Tues. Evening Finspiration Report

 ASX fell in a heap today.  XJO -1.28%.

It was RBA Day today - the day when interest rate decisions are announced.  The rate was held steady, and, uusually for RBA Day, the market barely moved.  The interest rate decision was not the "cause" of today's big fall.

The XJO bottomed just after 11.00 a.m. (Eastern Summer Time) this morning, rose a little and then basically slid sideways for the rest of the day.  

XJO was almost down to 6900 today - the last support level before the World Ends.  No - not really.  But the next major support level is a long way further down.  I don't even want to think about it.

In early trading in Europe today, markets, in contrast to Australia, are relatively flat.  STOXX600 -0.04%.

DOW Futures +0.17%.

I think we'll have a better day tomorrow.

Only one sector was positive today, Health +0.24%.

Worst - Energy -3.69%.

Gold/Silver Index.

The Gold/Silver Index is closely watch by Gold Bugs.  When it is low or at a break-out point, Gold Bugs want to buy.  That happened last night, when the G/S Ratio broke out of its trading range.

Not that Gold was rising, Silver was falling at a much faster rate than Gold.  Silver fell last night by -4.52% while Gold fell only -1.05%.  So the break-out in the G/S Ratio is not a buy signal for Gold.

Gold Miners ETF today was down -3.42% and completed a Head/n/Shoulders topping pattern.