13/23. Wed9nesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Ozzie market down sharply today.  XJO -0.74%

Chart for STW:

STW remains sitting at the middle of its Bollinger Bands just above the 20-Day MA.  Hull MA13 remains to the downside.

This can go either way.  Wait.

13/9/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 American markets fall. Dow down a little, Nasdaq down heavily.  Banks up.

Dow Jones -0.05%.  SP500 -0.57%.  Nasdaq -1.04%.  Small Caps -0.08%.  Banks +1.73%.

SP500

 SP500 is in No-man's Land - the middle Bollinger Bands (20/1), above the 20-Day Ma but below the 50-Day MA.  I'm waiting for a more decisive move.

Commodities.

 

Commodities Indes +0.36%.  Energy +1.08%.  Base Metals -0.39%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -0.52%.

Looks like a down day today.

12/9/23 Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 After a weak start, XJO finished up +0.2%.

Six sectors were up and five down.  Materials up +0.89% but Energy down -1.43%.  Financials were flat -0.06%.

STW is limping along in neutral.  It is hovering above the 20-Day MA (a positive) but the Hull MA13 hasn't turned positive yet.

The bounce off the 20-Day MA hasn't been strong, but better than falling.

The divergence in the Materials (well up) and Energy (well down) is not a good sign - something is wrong with the market when these two disagree.

In early evening trading European stocks are flat -0.07%.  Dow Futures down -0.18%.

Global political developments seem to be a problem, with nothing much happening on markets until they see which way the Putin/Kim meeting goes.

12/9/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. markets on the up.  Nasdaq strong.  Energy up, Base Metals up.

Dow Jones +0.25%.  SP500 +0.67%.  Nasdaq +1.14%.  Small Caps +0.07%.  Banks +0.3%.

SP500.

SP500 might pause here at the Supertrend (1/10) but it appears destined to rise to the top of the Value Zone on the Volume Profile.  That coincides with the recent high and Point of Control (longest bar on the Volume Profile).  That represents the area where most trading volume has occurred - congestion.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.6%.  Energy +0.53%.  Base Metals - Whooshka - +1/98%.  Agriculture +0.73%.  Gold +0.19%.

Ozzie Overnight Futures +0.1%.  That looks pessimistic to me.  But - it does mean we should have a positive opening.
 
 

11/9/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO finished up today after falling in early trading.  XJO +0.5%.

STW (trading ETF for XJO)

The chart has bounced off any important support level.  Expect more upside.

10/9/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

 

 

XJO Monthly Chart 

 

The long term chart of XJO has been range bound all year - no trend.

In September, XJO has fallen -2.03%.

This is a market for traders - long term investors wait.

XJO Weekly Chart. 

This week, the ASX was down heavily, -1.67%

The MACD Histogram in the bottom panel shows little sign of varying from the zero line, i.e., the Index remains range bound.

STW Daily Chart.  (STW is a tracking ETF for the XJO)

 

Above is a Candle Volume chart for STW.  The big advantage of a Candle Volume chart is that the width of the candle shows the volume traded that day.  That's important information which a regular candle stick chart doesn't show.

The current pull-back has been accompanied by low volume after hitting the top of the Value Zone of the Volume Profile (horizontal bars to the left of the chart).

Low volume on a pull-back suggests the pull-back won't last.

Sector Performances this week.

 

Ten out of eleven sectors were down this week.  The only positive - Energy (XEJ) +0.6%.  Financials were flat, -0.2%, a relatively insignificant fall.

 

All other sectors were down >1%.  Materials (XMJ), heavily weighted to miners, was the worst -2.98%.

XMJ Weekly Chart.

XMJ is back down to a major horizontal support level.  If recent history is repeated, we should see a move to the upside.

Of course, we are now into the "danger" months of September and October.  Downside moves are often seen in these months.

A break lower through horizontal support - then all bets (except bearish ones) are off.
 

Momentum.

 I use RSI from three different time scales to measure relative changes in momentum:  monthly, weekly and daily.

Using this I sort Sectors into Bullish (columns slope up), Bearish (columns slope down), Pull-back (up then down) and Counter-trend rally (down then up).

Bullish: No sectors are showing bullish momentum.  IAF (over on the left) is a composite bond ETF - and is showing bullish.  Bonds are a "safe haven" when the market is negative.

Bearish: Financials, Materials, Energy, Telecomunications Services, Utilities, Industrials, Gold, ASX200.

Counter-trend Rally: Health, Staples.

Pull-back:  Discretionary, Information Technology, Property,

It's probably best to avoid stocks in the Bearish Sectors, and look for opportunities in the Bullish, Pull-back and Counter-trend Rally Sectors.

Energy is an interesting case.  Its monthly column is the strongest for all the sectors - so long-term it has been very strong.   Its weekly column is the strongest of all the sectors.  Its daily column is the second strongest of all the sectors.  But the three columns slope downward, so it has been falling for some time.

I wouldn't count Energy out on the basis of its bearish profile.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

Above their 200-DMA:  last week 48%, this week 43%.

Above their 50-DMA:  last week 50%, this week 40%

Above their 10-DMA:  last week 67%, this week 25%.

These figures reflect the fall in the Oz market this week.  The "Stocks above 10-DMA" is now back down to a low level - so we could see a bounce here.

Strong Stocks - Weak Stocks

This week,  Strong Stocks 2, Weak Stocks  29.  Net -27.  We haven't seen readings as poor as those since the end of October, 2022.

Conclusion.

The Australian stock market has been range bound for many weeks. 

We are now into the weakest months of the year, so a break lower from the range is a possibility on the basis of historical seasonalities.

Central Banks, however, seem to be in a pause phase of interest rate rises, so that might provide some impetus for a move to the upside.

I'm agnostic at the moment about where the market might head - but the market will show its hand.

9/9/2023 Saturday Finspiration Report

 Friday: XJO down -0.2%.

Overnight:  U.S. market up a little.

Dow Jones +0.22%.  SP500 +0.14%.  Nasdaq +0.09%.  Small Caps -0.38%.  Banks +1.11%.

SP500.

 

SP500 has been in a short-term pull-back indicated by the ellipse centred on Friday 1 Sept.  The start of that pull-back occurred, more or less, opposite the Point of Control of the Volume Profile (left-hand side of the chart).  POC is a very high Volume Node - indicating a level where most volume has occurred in the past 50 days.

The pull-back may now concluded with intra-day rises on Thursday and Friday.  That reversal to the upside has occurred at a High Volume Node.  Such HVNs often provide support to an Index.

That apparent reversal has also occurred at the lower edge of the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.  That's where 70% of trading has occurred in the past 50 days of trading.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.2%.  Energy +0.77%.  Base Metals -1.2%.  Agriculture -0.23%.  Gold +0.03%.

RSI5 on Commodities Index and Energy is in the overbought region above 70.  A fall back below 70 often begins an evident decline.

RSI5 on Base Metals is close to the oversold level of 30.  

Gold is in a short-term sideways consolidation Friday's action shows intra-day selling.  

The consolidation is locked between the 50-Day MA and the 20-Day MA.  A break-out from within those parameters may indicate direction - either up or down.