9/9/2023 Saturday Finspiration Report

 Friday: XJO down -0.2%.

Overnight:  U.S. market up a little.

Dow Jones +0.22%.  SP500 +0.14%.  Nasdaq +0.09%.  Small Caps -0.38%.  Banks +1.11%.

SP500.

 

SP500 has been in a short-term pull-back indicated by the ellipse centred on Friday 1 Sept.  The start of that pull-back occurred, more or less, opposite the Point of Control of the Volume Profile (left-hand side of the chart).  POC is a very high Volume Node - indicating a level where most volume has occurred in the past 50 days.

The pull-back may now concluded with intra-day rises on Thursday and Friday.  That reversal to the upside has occurred at a High Volume Node.  Such HVNs often provide support to an Index.

That apparent reversal has also occurred at the lower edge of the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.  That's where 70% of trading has occurred in the past 50 days of trading.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.2%.  Energy +0.77%.  Base Metals -1.2%.  Agriculture -0.23%.  Gold +0.03%.

RSI5 on Commodities Index and Energy is in the overbought region above 70.  A fall back below 70 often begins an evident decline.

RSI5 on Base Metals is close to the oversold level of 30.  

Gold is in a short-term sideways consolidation Friday's action shows intra-day selling.  

The consolidation is locked between the 50-Day MA and the 20-Day MA.  A break-out from within those parameters may indicate direction - either up or down.

8'/9/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. mixed.  Dow up, Nasdaq down.  Commodities down a little.

Dow Jones +0.17%.  SP500 -0.32%.  Nasdaq -0.89%.  Small Caps -0.82%.  Banks -1.22%.

SP500.

In early trading, SP500 was down -0.78%, plenty of intra-day buying (yellow candle) pulled the index off its lows.  The index is down to the lower edge of the Value Zone on the Volume Profile.  So, the Index is likely to bounce higher.

 Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.2%.  Energy -0.21%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture -0.18%.  Gold +0.11%.

Base Metals showed intra-day buying off the 50-Day MA.  It might be ready to go higher.

Sydney ASX Futures overnight finished up little +0.1%.

7/7/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Another down day for the Ozzie Market.  XJO -1.19%.

All sectors were down today in a broad based market decline.  Best performers today were:  Real Estate -0.13%, Telecommunication Services -0.19% and Utilities -0.24%.

Worst performer today was Materials -3.17%.  That fall was exaggerated by BHP going ex-dividend.  BHP makes up about 10% of the Ozzie market.  When BHP goes ex-dividend it has a big effect on the market and, of course, a much bigger effect on its sector.  BHP fell -5.18% today, RIO in comparison fell -2.48% and Fortescue -2.31%.

Energy was the next worst performer -1.49%.  The  biggest company in XEJ is Woodside, down -1.48%.

STW Chart.

STW finished below the 20-Day EMA today.  I think there's probably more downside but I've been surprised at how light the Volume has been.  There's not a lot of conviction in the sell - so it may not have far to go..

7/9/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 American markets fall overnight.  Dow -0.57%.  SP500 -0.7%.  Nasdaq -1.06%.

SP500 CHART:

SPX is on a short-term sell signal having broken below the Supertrend Line (10/1).

Sydney Futures down -0.49%. 

6/9/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Ozzie Market down heavily today.  XJO -0.78%.

STW down -0.71% today.  STW is a tracking ETF for the XJO.  That takes the STW breaking below the Supertrend Line and the 5-Day EMA.  

STW has also re-entered the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.  That usually means a trip to the lower edge of the Value Zone.  That's about -2.4% from the current level.

Europe is now down -0.71% in early trading.

Dow Futures down -0.17%.  Nasdaq Futures down -0.4%.

XJO has broken below the range of the first three days of the Month.  That suggests we will see weakness into the midddle of September.

6/9/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 American markets slip.  Small Caps down heavily.  Energy up.  Base Metals down.

 Dow Jones -0.56%.  SP500 -0.42%.  Nasdaq -0.08%. Small Caps -2.96%.  Banks -0.94%.

SP500

SP500 is sitting on support of the 5-Day EMA.  Indicators have turned down.  

The trend remains up - but another down day might put that in jeopardy.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +1.12%.  Base Metals -1.18%.  Agriculture +0.64%.  Gold -0.82%.

Oz Futures -0.19%.  

Our market is likely to be weaker today.
 

5/9/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 After early losses, XJO recovered most of those to finish down just a little today.

STW (a tracking ETF for the XJO) remains above significant moving averages.

The past three days show doji candle-sticks which is often a sign of an imminent reversal, but there are no other signs suggesting a serious pull-back.

Stay with the trend until it is clearly ended.