Ozzie Market down heavily today. XJO -0.78%.
STW has also re-entered the Value Zone of the Volume Profile. That usually means a trip to the lower edge of the Value Zone. That's about -2.4% from the current level.
Europe is now down -0.71% in early trading.
Dow Futures down -0.17%. Nasdaq Futures down -0.4%.
XJO has broken below the range of the first three days of the Month. That suggests we will see weakness into the midddle of September.
American markets slip. Small Caps down heavily. Energy up. Base Metals down.
SP500
The trend remains up - but another down day might put that in jeopardy.
Commodities.
Oz Futures -0.19%.
Our market is likely to be weaker today.
After early losses, XJO recovered most of those to finish down just a little today.
The past three days show doji candle-sticks which is often a sign of an imminent reversal, but there are no other signs suggesting a serious pull-back.
Stay with the trend until it is clearly ended.
Good Morning.
Last night, America markets closed for Labor Day. European markets were relatively flat.
In the U.K. Bhp up 1.32%. Rio up +2.05%. WDS +2.62%
Overnight OZ Futures down -0.26% point to a weak start to the day's trading.
Reserve Bank interest rate decision at 2.30 p.m. today. It is expected to keep rates on hold.
XJO up today on the back of Mining and Energy Stocks.
Materials - the best performing sector today +1.95%. Energy next with +1.59%.
Worst performing sectors today were the Defensives. Health -0.3%. Utilities -0.48%. Staples -0.63%. Clearly - switching out of Defensives to Risk-on Assets.
Today's bullish engulfing candle is a positive sign.
In early evening trading, European Stocks are up strongly +0.77% following on from good results in Australia.
Dow Futures are unchanged at this stage.
The Weekly Finspiration Report is my key report for the week. Following daily reports are footnotes to this report.
STW Monthly Chart (ETF for XJO)
The month of September has had only one day of trading so far. Not enough to think about in the longer term
August saw the market fall by -0.7%. Not much in the long term scheme.
For many months, the broad market has been range bound. The lower edge of that range lies on the "Point of Control" from the Volume Profile at the left of the chart. POC is the long narrow grey rectangle. That's the level at which most volume has occurred in the past 50 months and represents a strong level of support. It also coincides with the 50 Month Moving Average - another support level.
We are coming into two dangerous months on the year, September and October. A pull-back is likely to occur, but I'd expect the POC to provide support in any pull-back.
STW Weekly Chart. (Tracking ETF for the XJO)
The Weekly Range corresponds, more or less, with the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.
This week, the ASX was up strongly. STW for the week was up +2.74%, XJO up +2.29% for the week.
(I use the STW chart as it provides valuable information about Volume, which is absent from the XJO chart.)
Sector Performances this week.
Momentum.
Using this I sort Sectors into Bullish (columns slope up), Bearish (columns slope down), Pull-back (up then down) and Counter-trend rally (down then up).
Bullish: Financials, Discretionary, Property, Bonds (Financials joined this group this week).
Bearish: Energy, Telecommunication Services, Utilities, Industrials.
Counter-trend Rally: Materials, Health, Staples, Gold, XJO.
Pull-back: Information Technology.
It's probably best to avoid stocks in the Bearish Sectors, and look for opportunities in the Bullish, Pull-back and Counter-trend Rally Sectors.
Energy is an interesting case. Its monthly column is the strongest for all the sectors - so long-term it has been very strong. Its weekly column is the third strongest of all the sectors. But the three columns slope downward, so it has been falling for some time.
XEJ.
Thursday was a big down day followed by a big up day on Friday. MACD Histograms is showing a positive divergence from the chart - so I would expect to see more upside in XEJ. Energy was up sharply 1.55% on Friday night in America. Watch this space.
100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.
Above their 200-DMA: last week 31%, this week 48%.
Above their 50-DMA: last week 33%, this week 50%
Above their 10-DMA: last week 33%, this week 67%%.
These figures reflect the broad based rally seen in the Oz market this week. The "Stocks above 10-DMA" is now at a level seen last at the end of July which led to the down- turn in August. So there may not be a lot more upside in this current rally.
Conclusion.
The Australian stock market has been range bound for many weeks. There's nothing in the current charts, despite this week's good result, to suggest that the market will break out of that range.
Last week I said: If all goes to plan, we should see a rebound this week off the lows. We got the rebound this week - let's see how the rest of September goes.
I'll be looking for best performances from Discretionary and Energy.
Dow up, Nasdaq flat. Commodities up strongly.
SP500.
SP500 saw intra-day selling but finished up a little, +0.18%.
The Index has seen four narrow range days in a row after Tuesday's big up day.
It is at the top of the Value Range on the Volume Profile. So it might take another pause for breath here.
The short-term trend remains up - stay with the trend unless otherwise indicated.
Commodities.
Those good Energy and Base Metals prices pushed the Sydney Futures up +0.45%. So the ASX should get a good start on Monday.
BHP in New York +1.34%, Rio +2.16%. Woodside _2.22%
Mixed Results in New York. Energy up. NAB ex-dividend today. Dow Jones +0.16%. SP500 -0.08%. Nasdaq -0.11%. Small Caps -0.07%. Banks -0...
