5/9/22. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Good Morning.

Last night, America markets closed for Labor Day.  European markets were relatively flat.

In the U.K. Bhp up 1.32%.  Rio up +2.05%.  WDS +2.62%

Overnight OZ Futures down -0.26% point to a weak start to the day's trading.

Reserve Bank interest rate decision at 2.30 p.m. today.  It is expected to keep rates on hold.

 

4/9/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up today on the back of Mining and Energy Stocks.

Materials - the best performing sector today +1.95%.  Energy next with +1.59%.

Worst performing sectors today were the Defensives.  Health -0.3%.  Utilities -0.48%.  Staples -0.63%.   Clearly - switching out of Defensives to Risk-on Assets.

XJO appears to be in a strong up trend and starting another leg up after consolidating for a couple of days.

Today's bullish engulfing candle is a positive sign.

In early evening trading, European Stocks are up strongly +0.77% following on from good results in Australia.

Dow Futures are unchanged at this stage.

3/9/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

 The Weekly Finspiration Report is my key report for the week.  Following daily reports are footnotes to this report.

STW Monthly Chart  (ETF for XJO)

 

 The month of September has had only one day of trading so far.  Not enough to think about in the longer term

August saw the market fall by -0.7%.  Not much in the long term scheme.

For many months, the broad market has been range bound.  The lower edge of that range lies on the "Point of Control" from the Volume Profile at the left of the chart.  POC is the long narrow grey rectangle.  That's the level at which most volume has occurred in the past 50 months and represents a strong level of support.  It also coincides with the 50 Month Moving Average - another support level.

We are coming into two dangerous months on the year, September and October.  A pull-back is likely to occur, but I'd expect the POC to provide support in any pull-back.

STW Weekly Chart.  (Tracking ETF for the XJO)

 

The Weekly Range corresponds, more or less, with the Value Zone of the Volume Profile.

This week, the ASX was up strongly.  STW for the week was up +2.74%, XJO up +2.29% for the week.

(I use the STW chart as it provides valuable information about Volume, which is absent from the XJO chart.)

Given the nature of this range bound market, any further upside after this week's strong performance is likely to be held by the upper area of the current weekly range.  A break above that would be bullish.

Sector Performances this week.

 

 This week's upside move was broadly based, with every Sector on the plus side.

 

Best performing Sectors were Discretionary +3.37%, Materials 3.21% and Financials +2.6%.  Weakest sectors were Staples +0.43%, Energy +0.67% and Utilities +0.69%.  Two of the wekest sectors were Defensives so we've seen some circulation out of Defensives and into Cyclicals.  (One week's performance is not necessarily a good indicator of trend performance.)

Momentum.

 

 I use RSI from three different time scales to measure relative changes in momentum:  monthly, weekly and daily.

Using this I sort Sectors into Bullish (columns slope up), Bearish (columns slope down), Pull-back (up then down) and Counter-trend rally (down then up).

Bullish:  Financials, Discretionary, Property, Bonds  (Financials joined this group this week).

Bearish: Energy, Telecommunication Services, Utilities, Industrials.

Counter-trend Rally:  Materials, Health, Staples, Gold, XJO.

Pull-back:  Information Technology.

It's probably best to avoid stocks in the Bearish Sectors, and look for opportunities in the Bullish, Pull-back and Counter-trend Rally Sectors.

Energy is an interesting case.  Its monthly column is the strongest for all the sectors - so long-term it has been very strong.   Its weekly column is the third strongest of all the sectors.  But the three columns slope downward, so it has been falling for some time.

XEJ.

 In this daily chart we can see that XEJ was in a strong up trend which ended on 10th August.  The ensuing pull-back was well predicted by the negative divergence on the MACD Histogram.

Thursday was a big down day followed by a big up day on Friday.  MACD Histograms is showing a positive divergence from the chart - so I would expect to see more upside in XEJ.  Energy was up sharply 1.55% on Friday night in America.  Watch this space.

100 Leader Stocks above their 200-Day, 50-Day and 10-Day Moving Averages.

Above their 200-DMA:  last week 31%, this week 48%.

Above their 50-DMA:  last week 33%, this week 50%

Above their 10-DMA:  last week 33%, this week 67%%.

These figures reflect the broad based rally seen in the Oz market this week.  The "Stocks above 10-DMA" is now at a level seen last at the end of July which led to the down- turn in August.  So there may not be a lot more upside in this current rally.

Conclusion.

The Australian stock market has been range bound for many weeks.  There's nothing in the current charts, despite this week's good result, to suggest that the market will break out of that range. 

Last week I said:  If all goes to plan, we should see a rebound this week off the lows.  We got the rebound this week - let's see how the rest of September goes.  

I'll be looking for best performances from Discretionary and Energy.

2/9/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Dow up, Nasdaq flat.  Commodities up strongly.

Dow Jones +0.33%.  SP500 +0.18%.  Nasdaq -0.02%.  Small Caps +1.01%.  Banks +1.07%.

SP500.

SP500 saw intra-day selling but finished up a little, +0.18%.

The Index has seen four narrow range days in a row after Tuesday's big up day.

It is at the top of the Value Range on the Volume Profile.  So it might take another pause for breath here.

The short-term trend remains up - stay with the trend unless otherwise indicated.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +1.18%.  Energy +1.65%.  Base Metals +1.34%.  Agriculture +0.18%.  Gold +0.05%.

Those good Energy and Base Metals prices pushed the Sydney Futures up +0.45%.  So the ASX should get a good start on Monday.

BHP in New York +1.34%,  Rio +2.16%.  Woodside _2.22%

31/8/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up a little today.  A narrow range day on low volume.  Not much interest in the trading today.

XJO +0.1%.

 This chart is at a major horizontal resistance level.  The market is not yet oversold, so any pause or short-term pull-back will probably be bought.

The market has come a long way in a short period of time - so a bit of rest time seems likely.

But the trend is up.  Stay with it till it ends.

In early evening trading, the big Swiss bank, UBS, is up +5%.  That's helped the European markets to head to the upside.  STOXX600 currently up +0.28%.

Dow Futures up about the same, +0.29%.

U.S. up modestly.   Commodities also saw small rises.

 Dow Jones +0.11%.  SP500 +0.38%.  Nasdaq +0.54%.  Small caps +0.46%.  Banks -0.63%.

SP500

 Momentum slowed last night.  Indicators are not yet at extreme levels, so the Index may have more gas left in the tank.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.12%.  Energy +0.22%.  Base Metals +0.44%.  Agriculture +0.23%.  Gold +0.25%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is flat this morning -0.07%.

 

30/8/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Ozzie market up very strongly today XJO +1.21%.  STW +1.3%.

The ASX gapped up at the opening this morning, then at 11.30 a.m. a benign CPI figure gave the market another boost to the upside.  After 2.00 p.m., some selling came into the market which took the top of a robust move.

It would be unusual after such a strong upside move for the market to repeat tomorrow.  So some settling can be expected.  STW is also at a major horizontal resistance level - another reason to expect a slower day tomorrow.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  The only significant fall was in Telecommunications -0.2%.  Discretionary was flat +0.04%, but that was largely due to Wesfarmers going ex-dividend today.  WES was down -0.41% but that was on the back of a $1 dividend which deflated the price.

Europe is down -0.19% in early trading and Dow Futures are flat -0.02%.