26/8/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday in the ASX, the Ozzie market followed the Thursday night U.S. market to the downside.

Last night (Oz time) Fed Head, Powell, spoke at Jackson Hole Symposium for World Central Bankers.  American markets were choppy but finished on the plus side.  (It's debatable whether or not his speech had any effect of the markets.)

Yesterday in Australia:

 STW (ETF for the XJO) fell heavily on Friday, down -1%.  XJO was down -0.93%, more or less the same as the STW.

Thursday saw indicators kick up but not enough to provide evidence that the down trend is over.

The chart remains at the low end of the Value Zone for the Volume Profile, so there is some chance of a move higher.

The "First Three Days of the Month" theory suggests that traders should wait for a move out of the range of the first three days of the month before taking positions.  That theory worked relatively well for traders in August.  A break lower from the range occurred on 16 August and the STW (XJO) has been in a down trend since.  This is clearly a "theory" to be used by swing traders not investors.

Overnight in America:

 Dow Jones +0.73%.  SP500 +0.67%.  Nasdaq +0.94%.  Small Caps +0.15%.  Banks -0.4%.

SP500.

The August fall in the SP500 was well predicted by the negative divergence on the MACD Histogram.

SP500 has been in a downtrend from the beginning of August, and, so far, indicators are not showing a let-up in the fall.

SP500 remains below the Tenkan Sen of the Ichimoku system.  That's the short-term conversion line.

Tenkan Sen remains below the Kijun Sen - that's the base line of the the Ichimoku system.

I'd stay away from this until I get some positive indications that the down-trend has ended.
 

 

24/8/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. markets up, Nasdaq strong.  Gold surges.

 Dow Jones +0.54%.  SP500 +1.1%.  Nasdaq +1.59%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Banks +1.14%.

SP500

 

SP500 remains in the "no trade" zone - the Kumo Cloud.  The top of the Kumo may cause resistance.  Then the SPX is faced with the 50-Day MA.

Indicators are generally positive.

The short-term trend is up.  Stay with that until otherwise indicated.

Commodities.

Commodities Indes +0.21%, but Energy was down -1.1%.  DBE appears to have formed a small head/n/Shoulders top - so more downside is expected.

Base Metals +0.77%.  Agriculture +1.04%.  Gold gapped up and finished +1.02%.

ASX opened 10 minutes ago and is up +0.4%.

23/8/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX had a positive day but some selling occurred in the afternoon which took the top off some of the earlier gains.  XJO finished up +0.38%.

STW (tracking ETF for the XJO) finished at resistance of the Kumo Cloud and Supertrene (1/10).  

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is pinching together which usually precedes a big move - in this case to the upside.

Info.Tech., which had a good day yesterday +5.19% yesterday, was hit hard by a down-grade of Wisetech, the biggest stock in the sector.  XIJ down today -5.26%.  Wisetech fell -19.62%.

Staples +1.77% rebounded today after Woolworths had a good result.  WOW up +3.51%.  It had been up much higher earlier in the day but suffered selling in the afternoon.

The current volatility is being driven, of course, by company reports. Some good, some not so good.

Early trading in Europe is again positive with Euro STOXX600 up +0.61%.  Dow Futures up +0.41%.  But, as we have seen recently, early trading can evaporate easily as the night wears on.

23/8/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Optimism in early evening trading last night, fell away.  Europe finished higher, but Dow and SP500 were down and Nasdaq flat.  Ozzie Futures are down a little this morning.

Dow Jones -0.51%.  SP500 -0.28%.  Nasdaq +0.06%.  Small Caps -0.23%.  Banks -2.62%.

Banks are under pressure after many were downgraded by a ratings company.

SP500

SP500 remains within the Kumo Cloud - that's the "no trading" zone.  It has come up to the top of the Cloud and opposite the "Point of Control" on Volume Profile to the left of the chart.  SPX is also facing overhead resistance from Supertrend and then 50-Day MA.  Tough going.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index flat +0.04%.  Energy -0.01%.  Base Metals +0.95%.  Agriculture -0.61%.  Gold +0.16%.

After a few minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down a little -0.1%.

Woolworths reported before the market opened this morning.  Yesterday it was it hard by a poor report from Coles, but this morning it has opened up more than +3% above yesterday's closing price.

22/8/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX flat today, XJO up just +0.09%.

Plenty of intra-day buying today with STW finishing above its opening price after dropping in early trading.

The chart shows overlapping candle-sticks the past few days different from the big gaps above the current congestion zone.  Those gaps will invariably be filled at some time.

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is close to giving a sell signal and the Bands are closing together - so the next move should be to the upside.

To have much confidence in any upside move, the chart needs to get above the Kumo Cloud of the Ichimoku system.

At this stage, the next move is likely to be to the upside.

Best sector by far today was Info.Tech. +5.19%.  That came on the back of a good night in the Nasdaq which had its best day so far in August.  XIJ is showing a good deal of confidence in that big number today so that will probably back the upside move which I think is coming in the ASX.

Worst today was Staples after the market thought poorly of the report from Coles, down -7.08%.  That was a seismic shock felt in Woolworths, down -3.03%.  That takes Woolies down to a support level, but we might need a couple more days to see what the fall-out is like for Coles and Woolies.

BHP reported today and fell -0.71% which isn't too bad when compared to Coles.  BHP also showed intra-day buying - which suggests cool heads weren't to concerned by the initial drop in BHP.

 BHP is at a major horizontal support line and a high volume node (on the left of the chart).  So more upside will probably be seen.

European stocks have started the evening well.  German DAX up +0.97% and French CAC up +1.17%.  US Futures are positive.  Dow Futures +0.15%.  Nasdaq Futures +0.42%.  So the evening is starting off well.

22/8/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight:  Dow down a little, Nasdaq up, Gold up.

Dow Jones -0.11%.  SP500 +0.69%.  Nasdaq +1.56%.  Small Caps -0.43%.  Banks -0.27%.

SP500.

 SP500 has tested the Point of Control as support and now headed back to the upside.  More upside should be in the offing, but plenty of resistance overhead suggests it will be slow going.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.26%.  Energy -0.45%.  Base Metals +0.56%.  Agriculture -0.28%.  Gold +0.27%.

Gold seems to be forming a bottom.

Commodities Index and Energy (highly correlated) might both have bear flags forming.  Let's have a more detaild look at Energy:

The past four days could be a bear flag, but volume has been substantial - which is not typical suggesting of further falls.  There is, however, something of a battle between bulls and bears.

DBE has tested the Volume Profile Point of Control (on the left of the chart) and that is holding - so expect more upside.

Australia this morning after a couple of minutes of trading is down -0.23%.  Info Tech, following the Nasdaq, is doing best up >2%.  Staples and Miners are the worst.  Early in the day.  But Info Tech looks likely to reverse yesterday's losses.

21/8/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

Late fall on the ASX dropped the XJO well into negative territory.  XJO down -0.46%.

Chart for STW (tracking ETF for XJO):

 The market slipped further into oversold territory today with RSI for the STW down to 35.7 today.  It can go a lot lower befor making a rebound.

Next support lies at 64.00 for the STW which is also a low volume node so a rebound at that level could likely occur.

Only two sectors up today, Discretionary +0.83% and Energy +0.65%.  Materials did relatively well, down only -0.08%.

Worst were Staples -1.34% and Info Tech -1.32%.

Overseas is currently looking a little brighter.  Euro STOXX600 is currently up +0.65% and Dow Futures up 0.22%.  Nasdaq Futures +0.61%.  So we could have a good day tomorrow.