15/8/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report

 Dow flat, Nasdaq up.  Europe mixed.  Commodities down.

Dow Jones +0.07%.  SP500 +0.58%.  Nasdaq +1.05%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks -1.66%.

The bullish engulfing candle on the Nasdaq suggests that the bear pull-back in the Nasdaq has run its course.  Small Caps show a long lower wick which is also a positive indication that the pull-back in Small Caps is over.  That's arrived at the 50-Day Ma - another positive.

Nasdaq 100 Chart:

 Last night's action is bullish:  

• Bullish engulfing candle, coming at the low end of a down trend.
• Rebound last night comes at the Point of Control on Volume Profile.
  
• Positive divergence on the Stochastic.
• Rising Money Flow Index.

I would have liked to have seen a better volume on the NDX but it was still relatively strong.

This isn't out of the woods yet - plenty of overhead resistance which might slow things down, but looks promising. 

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.49%.  Energy -0.57%.  Base Metals -0.94%.  Agriculture -0.75%.  Gold -0.3%.

Base Metals and Gold have faced onslaughts from a stronger U.S. Dollar.  Those commodities tend to rise or fall inversely to the U.S.$.

U.S.$ has had a great run up since mid-July coming off the Point of Control on the Volume Profile.  Money Flow Index is pulling back, and U.S.$ is facing resistance of the 200-Day MA and the Kumo Cloud.  So there is a good chance of a pull-back here in the $ and a chance of a rebound inBase Metals and Gold.

Gold.

 After a long down trend from mid-July, Gold is down to support of the 200-Day MA and Horizontal Support.   Bottom feeders will be looking to buy here.

14/8/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report

 The Ozzie maarket fell heavily today.  XJO -0.86%.

Here's the chart for STW (a tracking ETF for XJO):

STW broke to the downside of the bear flag that formed over the past seven days.

Volume was higher than seen in the previous seven days - that suggests the bear flag is being fulfilled - lower prices ahead.

The chart finished at horizontal support so we might get a short-term knee-jerk reaction to the upside.  STW also bounced intra-day from the 200-Day EMA.

Today's action also brought the chart down to the Point of Control on the Volume Profile shown on the left of the chart.  POC often acts as a magnet to prices.  It is also a level at which we often see a shuffling about of the price.  

If a bearish downside medium-term movement is to occur,  STW would need a break below the Kumo Cloud.  STW is sitting above that at this stage.

My gut feeling is we'll see more medium-term downside movement - but until a see a break below the Kumo Cloud, I'll hedge my bets.

13/8/23. Weekly Finspiration Report

STW Daily Chart.  (STW is a tracking ETF for the XJO)

(The above chart is a Candle/Volume chart.  The volume is indicated by the width of the candle.  This allows a viewer to see the relative volumes entering the market.  The volume is also mirrored in the MACD Histogram.  The height of a Candle/Volume is the same as a normal candle.)

This week, STW formed a bear flag - and that was on low volume.  That's a near perfect recipe for a move to the down side.  

The standard measure rule is to take the distane from recent high to the start of the bear flag and project that to the downside from the top of the flag.  That takes the measure rule down to a major support level at 64.62.  STW finished at 66.19 on Friday.

That level of 64.62 is also a retracement of 61.8% of the rally from 10 July to 1 August.

So there's a lot suggesting that we will see a further fall from the current level to 64.62.

Sector Performances this week.

 XJO was up a little this week, +0.2%.  Performances in sectors were fairly evenly divided with five sectors up and six sectors down.

The best performing sector was Discretionary +1.96%.  That suggests that the stock market is looking to a positive end to inflation which has so far impacted Discretionary.  The next best was Telecommunication Servicd +1.06%.  That's also pointing to the end of high inflation as XTJ contains stocks like REA (Real Estate Adverting) and SEK (Jobs Advertising).  

Energy was third on the list of positives, up +0.76%.  That tends to move with global movements in Energy prices.

Worst performer was Information Technology (XIJ), down -1.62%.  It is often volatile and impacted by falls in the U.S. Nasdaq Index.  Nasdaq was down exactly the same as XIJ -1.62% for the week.  Amazing coincidence.  

 

Wisetech (WTC) is the largest stock in the XIJ.  It was down -1.45% on Friday on very heavy volume.  Here's a candle volume chart for Wisetech:

That huge volume on Friday probably means the death knell for the recent strong run-up in WTC and will impact the ongoing movements in XIJ.  (I mentioned last week that the out-look for XIJ was poor.)

Conclusion.

That's all from me this week.  I'm not feeling confident about the near future of our market.

Not much happened to the broad market index this week, but some trends are beginning to show.  

Our stock market seems to be indicating that we can see an end to inflation jitters for some of the domestic stocks.

Global shifts in markets may not be so kind to our market - especially Information Technology.

12/8/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 ASX down on Friday, XJO -0.24%.  Europe down, Euro STOXX600 -1.09.

U.S. Indices mixed:

Dow Jones +0.3%. SP500 -0.11%.  Nasdaq -0.68%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Banks +0.39%.

SP500.

 

SP500 was down a little but the worst was alleviated by intra-day buying.

The Index is down to Horizontal Support and support of the 50-Day MA.  The Gap back in 12 July has been closed by last night's action.  That's the confluence of a series of events which suggests the next move will be to the upside.

Another Horizontal Support level exists a little lower down and at a Low Volume Node.  Even if more down side is seen on Monday, That Horizontal Support and Low Volume Node should be as far as this pull-back goes.

Commodities.
 

Commodities Index -0.16%.  Energy -0.09%.  Base Metals in free fall -1.25%.  Agriculture flat 0.00%.  Gold flat 0.00%.

11/8/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. finishes up a little but well down from session highs.

Dow Jones +0.15%.  SP500 +0.03%.  Nasdaq +0.12%.  Small Caps -0.38%.  Banks +0.19%.

SP500.

 SP500 seems to be consolidating at the lower Bollinger Band.  That suggests the next move is to the upside.

 

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.53%.  Energy -1.03%.  Base Metals -0.54%.  Agriculture  +0.09%.  Gold -0.11%.

ASX has opened down -0.3%.

10/8/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Energy drove the Australian market higher today.  XJO finished up +0.26%.

Some extraordinary moves today.  AMP was down -6.4% but finished up +4.6%.  Boral up +8.5%.  Downer, on the other hand, was down -6.4% and AGL down -3.1%.

That's reporting season for you.  Anything can happen.

 STW (a tracking ETF for the XJO) remains within the range of the first three days of August.  It is in a short-term up trend.  Hull MA13 has turned up and STW has broken above the 20-Day MA.

The long tails on today's candle indicates intra-day buying pressure which is a bonus.

A horizontal resistance level is near-by - that might cause some trouble.

Until XJO clears the block formed by the first three days of this month, we'll wait on the longer term trend to reveal itself.

10/8/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight:  Europe up, U.S. down. Oz Futures flat.

Dow Jones -0.54%.  SP500 -0.7%.  Nasdaq -1.17%.  Small Caps -0.7%.  Banks -1.67%.

SP500.

                      

SP500 is consolidating close to important horizontal support levels.  It has closed at a low volume node (see at left of the chart), so chances of a bounce here are high.  Watch for a strong upside move.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.7%.  Energy +1.37%.  Base Metals +0.22%.  Agriculture -0.19%.  Gold -0.48%.

 
After a strong finish in yesterday's XJO, I think the ASX will go higher today.