4/8/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Europe down.  U.S. down modestly.  Oz Futures down a little -0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S.:

Dow Jones -0.19%.  SP500 -0.25%.  Nasdaq -0.19%.  Small Caps -0.37%.  Banks +0.67%.  Banks bounced off the 20-Day MA - a positive move.

SP500.

SP500 stabilised at the Base Line of the Ichimoku system, but below the Conversion Line.  I'd expect to see an up move here to test the Conversion Line.  All bets are off until we see a move back above the Conversion Line.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.95%,  Energy +1.46%.  Base Metals +0.81%.  Agriculture -0.78%.  Gold -0.03%.

With Energy, Base Metals and Banks higher, we could see a surprise upside move in the XJO today.

3/8/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX well down today but intra-day buying knocked off some of the fall.  XJO -0.59%

XJO is now down close to horizontal support, we might get a rebound here or some consolidation.

After two days down, the Index has formed a double top but in the medium term the trend remains to the upside.

Ten of eleven sectors were negative today, with Telecoms the only positive +0.19%.  Staples only just landed in the red -0.01%.  Discretionary was third best -0.19%.  XDJ is a cyclical sector so that's a promising sign.  It showed distinct signs of intra-day buying.

Worst today was the highly volatile Information Technology (following the Nasdaq down). XDJ -1.63%.

In early European trading, stocks are down heavily following Australia.  DAX -0.8% and UK FTSE -1.29%.

I'm looking for a rebound in the American market tonight to throw off the wobblies caused by the Fitch down-grade.

3/7/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday, XJO was down heavily -1.29%.  All eleven sectors were negative.

SFE Futures are well down this morning after big falls in Europe and the U.S.  Oz Futures -0.79%.

Overnight in the U.S.

 Dow Jones -0.98%.  SP500 -1.38%.  Nasdaq -2.17%.  Small Caps -0.88%.  Banks -1.1%.

Nasdaq has formed a double top and broken below its 20-Day MA.

The break down by Nasdaq below support is only marginal so it may not signal more down side.

The Index is on a triple Super-trend sell signal.  If more down side does come (likely), then the Support Zone shown on the chart is centred on a High Volume Node and at the 50-Day MA.  So that will likely hold.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -1.51%.  Energy -1.5%.  Base Metals in free fall -1.74%.  Agriculture -0.77%.  Gold -0.48%.

Down grade by Fitch of the U.S. resulted in the $U.S. rising.  That had a negative impact on commodities.  Not good for Australian resource stocks.

2/8/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Dow Jones continues to defy gravity, now up 16 of the past 17 days, but SP500 falls.

Sydney Futures -0.53% suggest the Ozzie market might be a bit soft today.

Dow +0.2%.  SP500 -0.27%.  Nasdaq -0.25%.  Small Caps -0.49%.  Banks -0.99%.

 SP500

SP500 is consolidating in a tight range.  Negative divergences on MACD histogram suggest the Index is headed lower.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.53%.  Energy -0.07%.  Base Metals -1.51%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold -1.04%.

Gold remains in a short-term down-trend.

BHP overnight in the U.S. down -2.71%.  Rio -1.47%.  Woodside -1.86%.

The big news after hours is the downgrade by Fitch of the American rating to AA+ from AAA.

According to CNBC:  “In Fitch’s view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025,”

Dow Futures are down -0.22%.
 

1/8/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

In early trading, European stocks have opened lower.  STOXX600 down -0.35%.  American Futures are also down.  Dow Fut -0.22%.

In Australia today, RBA left interest rates on hold.  ASX jerked higher on the news then gave back a chunk with the XJO finishing up +0.54%.

 XJO remains in a bullish up-trend.  Stay with the trend until clear weakness is seen in the chart.

 All sectors were up today, with the best being Information Technology (XIJ), up +1.14%.

Gold Miners (XGD) was up +1.89%.

Here's the XGD chart;

Despite today's good result, the shor-term trend is bearish.  Today's candle finished at dual resistance - horizontal and the 50-Day MA.  XGD needs to rise above both of those and over come the resistance of triple Supertrend lines.  It might make hard work of that.

At this stage of proceedings it seems likely that the XJO will remain in consolidation mode tomorrow.  Sydney Futures are currently down -0.12%.

1/8/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 RBA rate decision later today.

After an hour's trading this morning, XJO has held in a narrow range and is up about +0.25%.  The range was set in the first thirty minutes of trading:  high 7440.3, low 7410.4.  A breakout of that range should see further rises or falls - depending on direction.

Best sectors are in the resources:  Materials +1.44%, Energy +0.91%.

Overnight in the U.S., major indices were up modestly.  Dow Jones +0.29%, SP500 +0.15%, Nasdaq +0.21%.

Chart for the SP500:

 SP500 remains in its long-term up-trend, but divergences on indicators suggest a pull-back is not far away.

Stay with the trend until clear weakness is seen in the chart.

Commities:  Energy +0.86%.  Base Metals +2.51%.  Gold was up +0.27% but showed intra-day selling.  Gold remains in a short-term down-trend.

From an Australian perspective, those good Energy and Base Metals are driving the Oz market today.

 

31/7/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 ASX started off well today but petered out as the day progressed.  XJO finished flat, up just +0.09%.  Energy was flat +0.00%.  Financials flat +0.02%.  Materials up a little +0.1%.

Best sector was Health, up 0.63%.   Worst sector was Staples -0.75%.

Here's the chart for STW, that's a tracking ETF for the XJO:

The chart remains in an up-trend but showing a lot of indecision with today's candle a "spinner".  Long wicks above a small body - that's indecisive - neither bulls nor bears winning the battle today.

Dynamic Zone Stochastic broke a little below its upper band today which suggests more downside. 

European Stocks in early trading are up a little, Euro Stoxx600 up just +0.09%,  Dow Futures up a little +0.07%.  Not much movement so far in overseas markets.

Tomorrow we head into August which historically been flat, average up +0.18%.  That, of course, leads into the worst month of the year - September.  So we can't expect much joy in the next couple of months - unless Central Banks decide to do a back-flip on interest rates.