27/7/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up strongly today, +0.73%.  Why?  Beats me - tune in to the ABC tonight - Alan Kohler usually has all the answers. 

 

The trend is up - stay with the trend until otherwise indicated.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  The only negatives were the resources, Materials -1.04% and Energy -0.53%.

The best was Property - a whopping big +3.33%. and therein probably lies the answer to my Why?  Property is an interest rate sensitive sector, so the market seems to think interest rates are on hold or going to go down.  (Until tomorrow that is.  The market is a fickle beast.)

Tech stocks were second best - XIJ up +2.19%.

NH-NL Cumulative.

This is my favourite chart for staying in the market.  While it remains above the 10-Day MA - stay long.

The big question now is:  What will the Dow do tonight.  14 in a row?  Dow Futures are currently up +0.16%.  So that's saying:  Probably.

Good luck.

27/7/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.27/7/23,

 After 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.5%.  Reporting season in Australia is in full swing.  Notable this morning were Macquarie Bank and Rio Tinto.  Both are on the downside, MQG -4.4% and RIO -2%.

Overnight in the U.S., Federal Reserve raised interest rates +0.25% (as expected).  For the stock market it was a non-event.  At the time of the announcement the SP500 jerked higher but then settled back to where it was.

Dow Jones up for the 13th day in a row.  That's the best since 1987 - and we all know what happened that year.  If it is up for 14 days in a row - best since 1897 - that's the year the Great Depression of 1893-97 ended.  Draw your own conclusions, good or bad.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +0.23%.  SP500 -0.02%.  Nasdaq -0.12%.  Mid Caps +0.5%.  Small Caps +0.69%.  Banks +1.88%.

Dow Jones is seriously overbought (no surprise) with an RSI at 75.2. 

SP500.

 

SP500 remains in consolidation.  The trend remains up - stay with it until otherwise indicated.

Since the low of mid-March, SP500 is up +19.9%.  During the same time, Australian XJO is up +7.3%. 

Commodities.

 Commodities Index -0.49%.  Energy -0.04%.  Base Metals -0.69%.  Agriculture -0.22%.  Gold continues its rebound off the 50-Day MA, +0.49%.

26/7/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO finished well up today after lower than expected inflation figures came out at 11.30 a.m.  XJO finished up +0.85%.

XJO broke above an important horizontal resistance level today where it has failed on several recent attempts.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This chart remains above its 10-Day MA.  This is a good guide for medium to long term investors.

Looking at the tea leaves suggests this move to the upside may not have too far to go.

A negative divergence is forming on the NH/(NH+NL),  That's had a good record of predicting changes in trend.

XJO/IAF is shown in the lower panel.  IAF is the ETF for Composite Government Bonds.

A divergence in XJO/IAF often precedes a change in the XJO.  Currently there's a negative divergence on XJO/IAF.  Watch for a fall in the XJO.

26/7/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 This morning after one hour of trading, XJO is up modestly +0.25%.  Trading is jerky ahead of the inflation data out later today.  Miners are leading again.  Lithium miners are rebounding from their sell-off and iron ore miners are also doing well.  The market remains unbalanced with three sectors up and eight down.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow was up for its 12th day in a row.

 Dow Jones only just made it into positive territory +0.08%.  SP500 +0.28%.  Nasdaq +0.61%.  Mid Caps +0.19%.  Small Caps -0.07%.  Banks -1.61%.

The recent rise of the Dow has seen rotation out of Tech. and into Industrials.  That now seems to be switching the other way with the Nasdaq now taking over leadership.

SP500.

 

SP500 is in a short-term consolidation.  The trend remains up.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

 Commodities Index +0.37%.  Energy +0.28%.  Base Metals +2.18%.  Agriculture +0.04%.  Golda +0.56%.

CCI on the Energy (DBE) shows a clear negative divergence suggesting that the Energy market will fall.

Inflation figures due at 11.30 a.m.  XJO jumped at the news and is now up +0.7% (11.50),  Seven out of eleven sectors are now up.  Healthy.  Looks like the RBA will be on hold at its meeting next week.

25/7/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up moderately +0.46, breadth was poor.

 XJO remains in consolidation.

Three indices up today (XMJ, XEJ, XTJ) and one flat XNJ +0.03%.  That's not the picture of a healthy market.

 

25/7/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Dow up 11 days in a row.  Best run in six years.  

Dow Jones +0.52%.  SP500 +0.4%.  Nasdaq +0.19%.  Mid Caps +0.11%.  Small Caps +0.61%.  Banks +1.71%.

SP500.

 SP500 is a broader market index than the Dow Jones which contains only 30 stocks.

SP500 is currently in consolidation and the trend may continue to the upside.  

The trend remains up - enjoy it will it continues.  Prepare for a pull-back.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.79%.  Energy +1.88%.  Base Metals +0.71%.  Agriculture +1.54%.  Gold -0.43%.

Strong commodity prices will sustain the ASX today.  

 

24/7/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO  down marginally today. -0.1%.  Woodside at record high, up +2.34%.

The chart now shows a cluster of doji candlesticks at the top of the trend.

Hull MA13 has turned down.  That's the shortest term MA that I use.  It's about equal to a 5-Day MA.

No other indicators have turned down yet - but it only seems a matter of time.

Here's the chart for Woodside:

Woodside had a very strong day taking it up to an all-time high.  All-time highs usually get followed by more upside.

While Woodside was going higher, Lithium stocks were slaughtered.  Core Lithium was down more than -17%.  That took other Lithium stocks down, e.g., Latin Resources -13.8%, Sayona -11.8%.

Energy pushed up by Woodside was the best sector today +2.2%.  But Materials balanced that out with a fall of -1.41%.  BHP down -1.51%.