9/7/23. Weekly Finspiration Report

    

Baron Rothschild.  Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.

That's all very well for you Dear Baron.  You lived in the 18th Century when revolutions occurred every week or so.  French Aristocrats were losing their heads over a a piece of cake, and the  good old Duke of Wellington had fun giving Napoleon a good thrashing, with the help of some mates from Prussia (they of the big Blucher Boots).

But, Baron, I live in Brisbane in the 21st Century - and we haven't had a revolution eval.  A couple of skirmishes, yes.  Like the Battle of Brisbane during WWII, when some Diggers took on a bunch of GIs because the GIs had oodles of money and pinched all the Shielas with presents of nylon stockings.  Then there was the 70's when the big brave Coppers took pleasure in bashing some weedy looking Vietnam protesters, much to Joh's delight.

So - no, dear Baron, I haven't seen any blood in the streets of Brissie, not in my time.

That advice is simply the worst trading advice I have ever read.  

Ignoring that - can we see if there are any buying opportunities right now for us poor benighted investors.  Let's see.

Here's the current XJO Chart:

XJO Daily Chart.

This, at least, looks promising.  XJO (down this week -2.24%) has fallen to a down-sloping support line.  RSI is oversold and so is Stochastic.  We could be on a winner here if we get a good bounce to the upside.

How is the American SP500 doing?

The Dow Jones is much stronger than the Ozzie XJO.  It is way above its 200-Day MA and above the Kumo Cloud.  That puts the chart in a bullish zone.

DJI has had a few days on the down side but that brings it to the Point of Control - the area where most volume has changed hands in recent times.  PoC often acts as support.  The chart is also close to the Base Line of the Ichimoku system - again - a level at which support often occurs.  We need to see a bounce here.

Sector Performance this past week.

That's am ugly set of columns.  Only one sector was up - XUJ (Utilities) +0.62%.  Nine out of ten sectors fell >1%.  The worst was XIJ (Info.Tech.) -3.81%.  XIJ is a volatile sector - which provides good trading opportunities.  In the longer term, XIJ is a strong positive performer (see below).  This looks to me like a pull-back which might provide some good buying opportunities.

Change over the Medium Term and Long Term.

For longer term, I turn to the 52-Day and 52-Week Mansfield Relative Strength Indices.

52-Day Mansfield.

This chart compares the performance of sectors over the past 52 Days to the XJO.  So XJO, being the base, shows as 0.  The best performing sector over the past 52 Days is XIJ followed by XUJ.

Adrenalin junkies might look to Bitcoin (USD) which provides plenty of thrills and spills.  Not for the faint hearted.

52-Week Mansfield

This compares the performance of sectors with the XJO over the past year (52 weeks).  Again - XIJ is the stand-out sector followed again by XUJ.  They are consistently performing well.  

And the place to avoid - XHJ.

NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative.

This chart is a lagging indicator but trends fairly strongly.  It is currently above its 10-Day Moving Average.  Still bullish.

%100 Leader Stocks above 200/50/10 Day Moving Averages.

% of Stocks above the 200-Day MA - 47%.  That's below the 50% mark - dividing line between bullish and bearish.

% of Stocks above the 50-Day MA - 26%.  That's a very low reading, the worst since the big pull-back in Sept/Oct 2022.

% of Stocks above the 10-Day MA - 17%.  That's the worst since Sept. 2022.

Those are very poor readings.  So - maybe - just a little blood has been spilt.  Enough?  We'll have to wait and see.

Long-term chart of XJO

The last time we saw very low readings on % Stocks above 50/10 Day MAs was back in Sept/Oct 2022.  That is shown on the above weekly chart of the XJO.

So there is a good chance of getting a counter-trend rally here - watch for a sharp upside reversal.

That's all for this week - stay safe.

8/7/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday in Australia, XJO fell -1.69%.

The past two days have seen the Index fall -2.91%.  

The trend is bearish with all MAs above the Chart.

Yesterday all eleven sectors were negative.  The worst was Property -2.6% followed by Discretionary -2.39%.  The best was Utilities, -0.72%.

After such a big fall in two days - expect a pause or a move to the upside.

Overnight in America, major indices fell.

Dow Jones -0.55%.  SP500 -0.29%.  Nasdaq -0.13%.  Mid Caps +0.93%.  Small Caps +1%.  Banks +1.26%.

The major indices (Dow, SPX, NAZ) all fell, but the secondaries rose:  Mid Caps, Small Caps and Banks.  Breadth was good.  That suggests the U.S. will see some upside from here.

SP500.

Despite weakness of the past two days, the up-trend remains intact with the chart above the 20-50-200 Day MAs and above the short-term Supertrend Line.

Look for a bounce to the upside from here.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.83%.  Energy +1.59%.  Base Metals +0.56%.  Agriculture -0.29%.  Gold +0.75%.

Here's the chart for Energy.

Energy Has broken above resistance.  More upside seems likely.  Look to the "Point of Control" ~21 for a target.  

Oz Futures are at +0.36%.  So the ASX should have a positive start on Monday.

7/7/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones -1.07%.  SP500 -0.79%,  Nasdaq -0.82%.  Mid Caps -1.07%.  Small Caps -1.46%.  Banks -1.57%.

SP500.

SP500 opened with a big gap down following big down-side moves in Europe and the East on Thursday.

Plenty of intra-day buying limited the degree of the fall.

Gaps on the 20 June and 30 June have now been closed.  The gap above Thursday's candle remains open.  Gap Theory says that all gaps must close (eventually).

Despite the big movement last night, the SPX remains in an up-trend - above the 20-Day MA which is still heading up.  MH40 remains up and the single Supertrend Line I have on the chart remains up.

Supertrend and 20-Day MA could provide support.  

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.22%.  Energy -0.18%.  Base Metals -0.11%.  Agriculture -0.09%.  Gold -0.3%.

Last night's candle on Energy shows an exceptionally long lower wick - evidence of lots of intra-day buying.  Watch for a break above horizontal resistance which is not too far over-head.  Such a break should see a big move to the upside.

Gold is showing a strong positive divergence on its CCI - it could also be setting up for a big upside move after its long bearish fall.

After 40 minutes in Australia, XJO is down -1.65% but off its lows.  This could erase more of the big opening move to the downside.

All eleven sectors are negative with Energy down 2.15% (worst).  Watch for a move up from here in XEJ.

6/7/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Kaboom!  XJO fell heavily today -1.24%.

That sends most indicators into bearish territory.

Ten sectors were down today and only one up - XIJ (Information Technology).  Don't get too excited - it was only up +0.13%.  Better than a poke in the eye.

Worst was Consumer Discretionary XDJ -1.91% followed closely by Materials XMJ -1.86%.  

Europe, in early trade, has followed Australia to the downside STOXX600 down more than -1%.

U.S. Futures are weak with Dow Futures down -0.41%.

6/7/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Yesterday In Australia.

Yesterday, XJO stalled at horizontal resistance.  Today it has continued its downside move and is currently down -0.7%.  Things are crook in Tullaroop.

Overnight in the U.S.

Major indices have stalled at recent highs.

Dow Jones -0.38%.  SP500 -0.2%.  Nasdaq -0.18%.  Mid Caps -0.89%.  Small Caps -1.5%.  Banks -0.89%.

SP500

SP500 was down a little last night but remains in a strong up-trend.  

We'll to wait and see if this stall at horizontal resistance is the start of something bigger, or just a pause before rising above resistance.  Money Flow Index (not shown on the chart) has a negative divergence to the SP500, so the odds lie to the down-side.  The poor performance of the XJO this morning is also an indication of further downside.  (XJO often pre-empts moves in the U.S., despite the pundits always telling us that Oz follows the lead of the U.S.)

Commodities.

Commodities Index, +0.62%.  Energy +1.65%.  Base Metals -0.83%.  Agriculture -0.33%.  Gold -0.35%.

Energy is knocking on horizontal resistance for the fourth time in the few weeks.  XEJ shows plenty of intra-day buying on heavy volume so it might break through to the upside soon.

4/7/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO was just negative at 2.30 p.m. when the RBA announced its interest rate decision.  The didn't move it one iota - or even a basis point.  I would have thought that would send the XJO into the stratosphere.  There was a lot of cheering from the front stalls, but. .....  XJO only finished up +0.45%.  A bit dreary really - like the weather in Brisbane today.

Anyhow, here's the XJO chart:

Still, I shouldn't complain.  The short-term trend is up and XJO has been up five out of six days.  The one day it was down - it was down only -0.02%.

Now the index is at horizontal resistance.  Given that America is closed for Fireworks (and the multiple wild fires which will start as a result) you can bet your bottom dollar that our market will fall back a bit tomorrow.

I'd suggest you go to the beach - except that would be a very silly idea.   Tomorrow's weather will be like today's - horrible.  Anyone for tiddlywinks or monopoly?

See you tomorrow.

Oh, by the way, NewHighs-NewLows Cumulative has turned bullish.  There's a sunny thought for you.

4/7/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Overnight in the U.S. the stock market was sluggish with low volume ahead of the 4th July Holiday.

Dow Jones +0.03%.  SP500 +0.12%.  Nasdaq +0.21%.  Mid Caps +0.21%.  Small Caps +0.62%.  Banks +1.76%.

SP500.

SP500 has taken a pause while many traders are absent ahead of Fourth of July Holiday.

The index remains bullish with triple Supertrends all yellow.

The High Volume Node shown on the chart could provide support in the event of a pull-back.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy -0.76%.  Base Metals +0.22%.  Agriculture +1.14%.  Gold +0.11%.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is relatively flat,+0.12% waiting on the RBA decision later today.