21/6/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO down today. -0.58%.

The index remains in an up-trend but has stalled at a major horizontal resistance level..  This might be the start of a pull-back but we need to see more evidence.

 

21/6/23 Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. markets finish lower.

Dow Jones -0.72%.  SP500 -0.47%.  Nasdaq +0.16%.  Mid Caps -0.73%.  Small Caps -0.43%.  Banks -1.01%.

SP500.

SP500 gapped down at the opening suggesting this rally is over.

Intra-day buying kept losses fairly low.  

Any further pull-back should be an opportunity to buy-the-dip.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.89%.  Energy -1.25%.  Base Metals -1.78%.  Agriculture -0.41$.  Gold -1.04%.

Gold broke down from its recent consolidation - more down-side looks likely.

Plenty of intra-day buying occurred in Energy - it remains in a sideways consolidation.

In early trading this morning, XJO is down -0.2%.  Resources are affected most with the big miners all down.

20/6/23. Tuesday Finspiration Report.

 Another strong day on the Ozzie market.  XJO up +0.86%.

At times - a couple of times a year - the seems to be gripped by an irresistible force.  Now seems to be one of those times.  XJO up seven days in a row.

This seems to have enough momentum to test the high from mid-April.

Europe was down last night and has started on the down-side again tonight.  That didn't affect our market today!

20/6/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

 U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth Holiday, so no data for U.S. equities or commodities.

European markets were weak.  German Dax -0.96%.  French CAC -1.01%.  UK Footse -0.71%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, Ozzie XJO is up +0.25%,  that's mainly on the back of better results, at this stage, of Energy +0.63% and Materials +0.39%.

Plenty of trading left in today - we'll probably be flat after the past two days of strong market action and no U.S. lead overnight.

19/6/23. Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

 Another good day on the XJO - the sixth day in a row.

XJO is in a strong up-trend.

Some storm clouds are gathering.  Short Term RSI2 became even more over-bought at 99.18.

Today saw switching into Defensives with Defensive Sectors doing best today.  Staples +1.61%.  Health +1.9%.  Utilities +1.16%.

NewHighs-NewLows still haven't given a "buy" signal.

XJO can still go higher - anything can happen, but it is now starting to look a bit long in the tooth.

18/6/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

 

(I'm glad I don't have a mortgage to service.)

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO up strongly this week,  +1.81%.  The Index has broken out of its down-trend channel.

The short-term RSI2 is now very over bought (above 90) for the first time since April.  It can, of course, remain over bought for some time as it did in March-April when the market continued to trend higher.  

The break out to the upside also negates the possibility of a head-n-shoulderts formation completing.  That's one worry off the plate.

American SP500.

SP500 is in a strong up trend beginning in mid-March.  It is now at the top edge of the Standard Error Channel.  Expect a pull-back.

Likely support is the first horizontal support line on the chart.

How any pull-back will affect Australia is a moot point.  While SP500 has been in a strong up trend, XJO has been in a down trend since mid-April.  Any strong pull back in the U.S. will undoubtedly affect Australia.  We'll just have to see how this plays out.

Chinese events are having a strong effect on the Ozzie market.  Recent loosening of credit in China could help Australia maintain a bullish profile.

XJO Weekly Chart - Something to keep in mind.

This week, XJO bounced strongly off the 50-Week MA and took almost everything in the market up with it.  Unless you were in Health Care (XHJ) this week, you've probably done very well - even the dart throwers are cheering.

Sector Performance this past week.

XHJ down this week -5.86%, after CSL posted a poor update to the market.  CSL fell -6.89% on the news on Wednesday and continued down on Thursday and Friday.

The rest of the market did well.  Info.Tech. came back with a vengeance this week, up 5.55%, followed by Financials (XXJ) up 3.38%.  XXJ seems to be returning to a positive stance.  This is its best week since October, 2022.  That started a strong up trend for Financials.  Perhaps the same can happen here?

Banks have been a drag on the XXJ but they performed well this week, MVB up +3.51%.

Momentum.

A quick way to judge momentum is to compare the Weekly RSI and the Daily RSI.

By this method, XMJ, XEJ and XXJ have positive momentum.  

Bonds (IAF), Gold Miners (XGD) and Health (XHJ) are looking a bit sick.

I wouldn't rule XIJ out at this stage, even though momentum is negative.  XIJ did very strongly this week and may be returning to further strength.  But, the chart is saying to stick with Energy, Materials and Financials.

Conclusion.

The Australian market broke out of its down trend this week.  Look to more upside but continue to monitor global market events.

17/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

Friday:  XJO up strongly.  America market down a little.

XJO up +1.06% on Friday and has broken out of its down-trend.  Expect some pull-back after such a strong day.

Overnight in the U.S.

Friday was Options Expiry Day in the U.S.  Volume was very high.

The market traded in a relatively narrow range but finished on the downside.

Dow Jones -0.32%.  SP500 -0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.69%.  Mid Caps -0.4%.  Small Caps -0.41%. Banks -0.71%.

SP500.

SP500 has been in a very strong up-trend.

RSI has turned down below its upper band and CCI has a negative divergence.  Expect the next move to be to the downside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.25%.  Energy +1.36%.  Base Metals +0.16%.  Agriculture +1.34%.  Gold -0.15%.

Oz Futures are down a little -0.04% overnight suggesting a flat opening on Monday for the Oz market.