18/6/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

 

(I'm glad I don't have a mortgage to service.)

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO up strongly this week,  +1.81%.  The Index has broken out of its down-trend channel.

The short-term RSI2 is now very over bought (above 90) for the first time since April.  It can, of course, remain over bought for some time as it did in March-April when the market continued to trend higher.  

The break out to the upside also negates the possibility of a head-n-shoulderts formation completing.  That's one worry off the plate.

American SP500.

SP500 is in a strong up trend beginning in mid-March.  It is now at the top edge of the Standard Error Channel.  Expect a pull-back.

Likely support is the first horizontal support line on the chart.

How any pull-back will affect Australia is a moot point.  While SP500 has been in a strong up trend, XJO has been in a down trend since mid-April.  Any strong pull back in the U.S. will undoubtedly affect Australia.  We'll just have to see how this plays out.

Chinese events are having a strong effect on the Ozzie market.  Recent loosening of credit in China could help Australia maintain a bullish profile.

XJO Weekly Chart - Something to keep in mind.

This week, XJO bounced strongly off the 50-Week MA and took almost everything in the market up with it.  Unless you were in Health Care (XHJ) this week, you've probably done very well - even the dart throwers are cheering.

Sector Performance this past week.

XHJ down this week -5.86%, after CSL posted a poor update to the market.  CSL fell -6.89% on the news on Wednesday and continued down on Thursday and Friday.

The rest of the market did well.  Info.Tech. came back with a vengeance this week, up 5.55%, followed by Financials (XXJ) up 3.38%.  XXJ seems to be returning to a positive stance.  This is its best week since October, 2022.  That started a strong up trend for Financials.  Perhaps the same can happen here?

Banks have been a drag on the XXJ but they performed well this week, MVB up +3.51%.

Momentum.

A quick way to judge momentum is to compare the Weekly RSI and the Daily RSI.

By this method, XMJ, XEJ and XXJ have positive momentum.  

Bonds (IAF), Gold Miners (XGD) and Health (XHJ) are looking a bit sick.

I wouldn't rule XIJ out at this stage, even though momentum is negative.  XIJ did very strongly this week and may be returning to further strength.  But, the chart is saying to stick with Energy, Materials and Financials.

Conclusion.

The Australian market broke out of its down trend this week.  Look to more upside but continue to monitor global market events.

17/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

Friday:  XJO up strongly.  America market down a little.

XJO up +1.06% on Friday and has broken out of its down-trend.  Expect some pull-back after such a strong day.

Overnight in the U.S.

Friday was Options Expiry Day in the U.S.  Volume was very high.

The market traded in a relatively narrow range but finished on the downside.

Dow Jones -0.32%.  SP500 -0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.69%.  Mid Caps -0.4%.  Small Caps -0.41%. Banks -0.71%.

SP500.

SP500 has been in a very strong up-trend.

RSI has turned down below its upper band and CCI has a negative divergence.  Expect the next move to be to the downside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.25%.  Energy +1.36%.  Base Metals +0.16%.  Agriculture +1.34%.  Gold -0.15%.

Oz Futures are down a little -0.04% overnight suggesting a flat opening on Monday for the Oz market.

 

16/6/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Another strong session for the U.S. stock market.  Commodities also up.

Dow Jones +1.26%.  SP500 +1.22%.  Nasdaq +1.15%.  Mid Caps +0.93%.  Small Caps +0.89%.  Banks +1.5%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a strong up trend after six days to the up side.

The next session is options expiry.  Options expiry week often produces a positive movement but the day of options expiry then produces fireworks.  I expect tomorrow to be down.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +2.11%.  Energy +2.72%.  Base Metals +0.49%.  Agriculture +1.72%.  Gold +0.7%.

After an hour of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.5%.

XUJ (Utilities) is leading the way, up +2.6%.  XIJ (Info.Tech.) is also very strong, +2.12%.  Energy +1.93%.

15/6/21 Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO finished up a little today, +0.19%.  It was fairly strong early in trading but a strong employment report (means interest rate rises) knocked the index back down.

XJO remains in a down trend despite having three days to the upside.  It is now facing resistance from the Ichimoku Conversion Line (light blue line) and the lower edge of the Kumo Cloud.

Iron ore miners and banks were strong today.  BHP +0.76%, Rio +2.59%, Fortescue +3.59%.  Banks +1.11%

I'm expecting a softer day tomorrow for the Australian market.

15/6/21. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

 Mixed results in the U.S. after Fed interest rate decision.  Trading, as usual on Fed day, was volatile.  The U.S. now faces options expiry on Friday.

Dow Jones -0.68%.  SP500 +0.08%.  Nasdaq +0.39%.  Mid Caps -0.63%.  Small Caps -1.35%.  Banks -1.83%.

Breadth was weak with Mid Caps and Small Caps finishing well on the down side.

SP5500.

Today was a "spinner" - with a wide range.  Coming at the top of the trend that's suggestive of a pull-back.  CCI is showing a negative divergence - also suggestive of a pull-back.

RSI at 72.4 is overbought.

Friday is options expiry which is likely to provide fireworks.  Friday is setting up as a market moving day.

Commodities.

Commodities +0.22%.  Energy -0.49% (with a bearish engulfing candle).  Base Metals +1.43%.  Agriculture +0.14%.  Gold flat +0.06%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up about +0.3%. 

Information Technology (XIJ), which was battered yesterday, is up more than +1%.  Materials (XMJ) is also strong +0.6%.  Health (XHJ) continues its slide from yesterday -2%.

14/6/23. Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO up modestly today.

Technically, nothing much has changed for the XJO.  It continues to consolidate at the low end of its down trend channel.

Today was a "spinner" - showing plenty of indecision with upper and lower wicks on today's candle.

Materials (XMJ) was the big winner today, +2.49%.  Biggest loser - Health (XHJ) -4.82% after CSL gave a very negative up-date to the market.  CSL -6.89%.

NewHighs-NewLows was positive today after six days of falls.  But only just, NH-NL=5.

Big night tonight with the Fed announcing interest rates.

14/6/23.

 

The Dow Jones has been up for six days in a row - with the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates coming out tonight (Oz time), DJ is now in dangerous waters.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +0.43%. S P500 +0.69%.  Nasdaq +0.83%.  Mid-Caps +1.08%.  Small Caps +0.94%. Banks +1.53%.

Except for the banks, all the above indices had gap-up openings on Tuesday.  That's beginning to look like irrational exuberance at this stage of the up-trend.

SP500.

SP500 has now been in a sideways consolidation for the past 11 days.

Wait and see what happens tonight after the Fed makes its ideas known.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.34%.  Energy +2.57%.  Base Metals +1.17%.  Agriculture +0.29%.  Gold -0.74%.

Those good commodities figures should keep the Ozzie market out of trouble today.

After 90 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.23%.  Materials (XMJ) is doing best, up >2%.