11/6/23. Weekly Finspiration Report.

The Old Geezer might be right, but inflation does seem to have peaked back in December, 2022.  It still has a way to fall before being normalised, but it does seem to be falling.  Just maybe, the RBA won't be too far off ending rate hikes.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO down a modest -0.32% this week.

The trend remains down.  Last Monday, XJO hit the top of the Standard Error Channel.  On Tuesday, the ASX was mugged by the RBA rate increase, and the XJO remains solidly within the down-trend.  It is now sitting at the 200-Day Moving Average where it has bounced before.  Until we see a significant break of structure by setting up a higher high and higher low, we have to presume the down-trend remains in place.  We need to see a close above Monday's high and above the 50-Day MA to feel that a new uptrend is in place.

The chart finished Friday at the centre of the down-trend channel and RSI is sliding sideways, so there is a chance for our market heading upwards.

American SP500.

The American SP500 consolidated for four days last week, then on Friday attempted a break above major resistance.  Intra-day selling forced the index back under the resistance level.  Coming at the top of a long trend, that may indicate the start of a pull-back.

Plenty of support lies near-by and a significant "Point of Control"exists at about 4135 - SP500 finished at 4300 (round numbers) on Friday.

"Point of Control" shows as a long darkish rectangle on the Chart.  You can see how many candles are arrayed along that "Point of Control".  That's where the biggest battles between bulls and bears have been fought.  Having won that battle - the Index headed higher and is likely to find strong support at the level if the SPX does pull back.

Note that the Australian market has disconnected from the American market - so action in America is not a good guide to what will happen in Australia.

XJO Weekly Chart - Something to keep in mind.

In the first half of 2022, XJO formed a Head-and-Shoulders formation which reached its culmination in just one week in the middle of June.

Now, XJO may be forming another H-n-S formation.  It began forming back in November 2022 and hasn't yet completed.  If it does complete, then we could be looking at another test to the 6400 level (round numbers).  XJO is now at 7120 (round numbers).

There are no guarantees that it will complete - but keep this in mind.  A break down through 6900 (round numbers) could see a quick capitulation.

Sector Performance this past week.

XJO was down a little this week -0.32%,but, only three sectors were up:  Materials (XMJ) +2.05%.  Utilities (XUJ) +1.13%, and Energy (XEJ) +0.44%. 

The worst performer this week was Information Technology (XIJ) down -2.95%.  XIJ has been an outstanding performer for a long time - but is now taking a rest.  Look to buy the dip:

The banks continue to weigh on the XXJ. Three of the big banks fell heavily this week.  CBA down this week -1.15%, NAB -2.29% and Westpac -1.41%,  But ANZ was the odd man out, up +0.35%. 

Momentum.

A quick way to judge momentum is to compare the Weekly RSI and the Daily RSI.

By this method, XMJ, XEJ and XXJ have positive momentum.  XXJ might have positive "momentum" by this metic - that doesn't mean that it's chart is going to the upside - but that the Rate of Change has slowed perceptibly - so it might be about to go to the upside.  

Conclusion.

The Australian market has been in a down-trend since mid-April.  That's in stark contrast to the American market, buoyed by rampaging tech stocks, which has been in an up-trend since mid-March.

Stay cautious until we can see a definite change in the trend from down to up.

The Australian market is closed on Monday for the King's Birthday holiday held in most of the Australian states (except Queensland an WA.)

10/6/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 Australian and American markets remain in the Doldrums.

XJO - ASX200

XJO was up yesterday, +0.32%, but it was a narrow range day sitting at the 200-Day MA.  

ASX is closed on Monday for the King's Birthday, so we'll have to wait till Tuesday to see how this resolves.  

At this stage the chart is bearish but holding at the 200-Day MA - that's a positive.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones +0.13%.  SP500 +0.11%.  Nasdaq +0.1%.  Mid Caps -0.59%.  Small Caps -0.83%. Banks -0.56%.

SP500.

On Friday night, SP500 rose above a major horizontal resistance level, but then said, "Nuh".  Intra-day selling saw the index pull-back to just below resistance.  Such action at a major resistance level usually indicates more down-side.  A likely target is the 30-Day MA - that's the blue dotted line, which is co-incident with the Base Line of the Ichimoku system.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.61%.  Energy -0.67%.  Base Metals -0.55%.  Agriculture -0.24%.  Gold -0.27%.

In New York, BHP -0.58%.  Rio flat -0.05%.

Our market will have to digest Monday's stock market news before re-opening on Tuesday.

9/6/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. major indices gain overnight, but secondaries take a breather.

 Dow Jones +0.5%.  SP500 +0.62%.  Nasda +1.02%.  Mid Caps -0.44%.  Small Caps -0.63%.  Banks -0.46%.

SP500.

SP500 continues to consolidate at the top of its range and close to major horizontal resistance.

The chart remains bullish.  A pull-back will probably be a buy-the-dip opportunity.

Commodities.

Commodities index +0.19%, Energy -1.46%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture _1.69%.  Gold +1.32%.

BHP and Rio were both up more than +1% in New York.

We should have a positive start to today's trading.

8/6/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO fell today - 0.26%.

The chart remains bearish, but could form a double bottom.  RSI is showing a possible positive divergence.

Implied Volatility - Historical Volatility is getting down to a very low level near where it has reversed before in late March.

Consumer Discretionary stocks continue to perform poorly.  XDJ down -1.39%.  Information Technology (XIJ) was the worst performer today -3.83%.  It's had a great run lately - so it might be pulling back a bit before another move to the upside.  Real Estate (XPJ) also performed poorly -2.49%.

The best today was Energy +1.33%.

Here's the Energy Chart.

XEJ is currently trending sideways, oscillating around the 200-Day MA.

XEJ has been finding support at the Base Line of the Ichimoku system so a move to the upside is most likely

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This morning's post in in bits and pieces. SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  Mid and Small Caps say the market is doing better than this chart suggests.

8/6/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Dow Up, Nasdaq Down, Mid and Small Caps going berserk.  

Dow Jones +0.27%.  SP500 -0.38%.  Nasdaq -1.29%. Mid-Caps +1.52%.  Small Caps +2.4%.  Banks +1.4%.

Market is healthier than the major indices suggest.

6/6/23. Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

 XJO mugged by the RBA at 2.300 p.m. today.  XJO finished down -1.2%.

At 2.30 p.m just before the RBA announced its interest rate decision, the XJO was down a little.  The RBA decision to raise interest rates again (+0.25%) put the XJO into a precipitous dive.  

Only one sector escaped the carnage - Utilities (XUJ) up +0.54%.  I guess people won't be turning off their heaters as winter descends upon us.  But Discretionary Spending will be cut back, again. XDJ (Discretionary) was the worst hit sector, down -2.16%.  

Industrials (XNJ) was the next worst sector, down -1.56%.  Does that suggest our national economy is headed for recession?  Maybe.

Information Technology (XIJ) didn't fare too badly, only down -0.19%.

But Health Care (XHJ) was hit, down -1.39%.  Do people spend less on Health Care in order to pay their mortgage.  Probably.

Looking at the chart, however, it remains in a sideways movement, held up by the 200-Day MA and restrained by the 5-Day and 30-Day MAs.

While the XJO can hold above the 200-Day MA, there's room for a little optimism.

Not much coming out of Europe, STOXX600 down -0.11%.

American Futures are also docile, but leaning to the down side.  DJ Futures -0.14%. SP500 Futures -0.09%.  Nasdaq Futures -0.02%.