4/6/23. Sunday Weekly Finspiration Report.

Despite all the hoo-ha about the U.S. Debt Ceiling in the media, not much movement occurred in the Oz market this week.  But, the media got its action on Friday night when the Dow Jones rose +2.12%, US Mid Caps rose +3.27%, U.S. Small Caps +4.06%.

Oz market will almost certainly follow to the upside on Monday

Let's get into the details.

XJO Daily Chart.

The chart remains in a down-trend.  On Wednesday and Thursday it hit the lower edge of the Standard Error Channel then bounced on Friday back above the 200-Day MA.  That's encouraging for the bulls but the chart needs to close Monday's high (circled) and get above the 50-Day MA (blue dotted line).

Until we see a significant break of structure by setting up a higher high and higher low, we have to presume the down-trend remains in place.

American SP500.

Unlike the Australian XJO, the American SP500 is in a strong up-trend.  Friday's night action broke above its restraining up-trend line.  Friday saw the SP500 up +1.45%

Just above the high of Friday is a major horizontal resistance level which was set back in August, 2022.  That might cause the SP500 to stutter.

CCI shows a negative divergence suggesting we might see a pull-back in the near future.

Sector Performance this past week.

XJO was down a little this week but -0.14%, as usual, we had a wide variation in sector performances.

Of particular note is the poor performance of both cynical and defensive retailers.  Discretionary -2.21% and Staples -1.27%.  Until the Reserve Bank starts easing off the interest rate increases, the retailers will make heavy weather.

XXJ (Financials) also did poorly - 1.36%

The big banks are largely behind the poor performance in XXJ.  Despite the banks recently reporting good results (earnings up, interest margins, Return on Equity - all improving), the market is looking at deteriorating credit impairment charges, rising funding costs and increasing operating costs, not the least of which is due to inflation. While those conditions remain, it might be best to give the big banks a miss.

The big improver this week was XMJ (Materials) after iron iron prices were on the up.  The big miners are ones to watch.  BHP and Rio have been in down-trends since early this year.  This week's good performance didn't do anything to change that bigger picture.  Both the big miners are sitting around their 200-Day MAs.  Rio, for example, needs to get back above major horizontal resistance and the 50-Day MA to prove its bullish credentials.

Sector Momentum.

A quick way to check momentum is to look at the difference between weekly and daily RSI.  If daily RSI is below weekly RSI, then momentum is negative, or bearish.  Vice versa, if daily RSI is above weekly RSI, then momentum is positive or bullish. 

The above profile is indicative of a bearish market.  Only two sectors are showing positive momentum, XIJ and XEJ.  XXJ is flat, so it could be about to turn around from its current poor performance (see above).

Look to strong stocks in sectors with positive momentum.

Conclusion.

The Australian market has been in a down-trend since mid-April.  That's in stark contrast to the American market, buoyed by rampaging tech stocks, has been in an up-trend since mid-March.

No doubt we will see a big upside move on Monday, but, until we see more sustained moves to the upside, doubts must remain about the Australian market.

3/5/23. Saturday Finspiration Report.

 XJO up moderately yesterday.  Dow Jones - Whooshka.

XJO has bounced up off the 200-Day MA.  200DMA acts as a marker between bearish and bullish, so that's a promising development.

Modest positive divergences on RSI and CCI suggest further upside.

Other than that - the chart remains bearish, and the current move is a counter-trend rely.

My opinion might change on Monday as a result of amazing conditions in the U.S. last night.

U.S. Indices.

Dow Jones +2.12%. SP500 +1.45%.  Nasdaq +1.07%.  Mid Caps +3.27%.  Small Caps +4.06%.  Banks +3.74%.

The Dow Jones has a huge daily candle on it.  More importantly, we also have huge daily candles on the Mid Caps and Small Caps.  The big worry recently in the U.S. market has been the lack of breadth.  A few big names on the Nasdaq have been doing the heavy lifting for the market with a lack of breadth.  That has now been done away with because of the surge in the Mid Caps and Small Caps.

SP500.

This chart is bullish.  A major horizontal resistance lies just above the Index.  That's the high from mid-August 2022.  That might cause the market some difficulty but with a broad based rally it should be able to push up past that after some stuttering.

Commodities.

Commodities were also bullish on Friday night in the U.S..

Commodities Index +1.29%.  Energy +2.35%.  Base metals +0.5%.  Agriculture +0.58%.  Gold fell -1.47%.

Ozzie stocks in NY enjoyed a good night.  BHP +4.13%.  Rio +3.49%.  Woodside +2.6%.

2/6/23. Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. stocks rise strongly.

 Dow Jones +0.47%.  SP500 +0.99%.  Nasdaq +1.28%.  Mid Caps +0.81%.  Small Caps +0.86%.  Banks +1.61%.

SP500.

SP500 is knocking on resistance from Friday's high.  With negative divergence on the CCI that sets up the possibility of a double top.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.63%.  Energy +2.19%.  Base Metals +1.02%.  Agriculture +1.47%.  Gold +0.79%.

With Stocks and Commodities up strongly, Australia is set for a strong Friday.

1/6/23. Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

 After setting a new 20-Day low today, XJO finished on the positive side, +0.27%.

XJO is sitting down on the 200-Day MA where it often bounces.

The Index is still bearish and has plenty of overhead resistance.  Any move to the upside could make heavy going.

On the bright side, Europe is up strongly this evening.  DAX +1.22%.  FTSE +0.67%.  CAC +0.99%.  STOXX600 +0.96%.

American Futures are positive.  Dow Jones +0.12%.  SP500 +0.23%.  Nasdaq +0.07%.

1/6/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. Stocks fall while Law Makers play their fiddles.

Dow Jones -0.41%.  SP500 -0.61%.  Nasdaq -0.63%.  Mid Caps 1.39%.  Small Caps -1.31%.  Banks -2.47%.

Nasdaq has been leading the way, but divergence on the CCI suggests more downside to come.  Then it will depend on whether the Dow can pick up the slack.

SP500

SP500 has been under the influence of the Nasdaq.  It is also showing a negative divergence on its CCI so it will probably follow the Nasdaq to the downside.

Commodities. 

Commodities performed poorly overnight.

Commodities Index -1.12%.  Energy -2.04%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.1%. Gold +0.15%.

After 15 minutes of trading this morning, XJO has opened weaker -0.07%.  Not too bad after those weak overnight leads.
 

31/5/23. Australian market fell heavily today.

 XJO down -1.64%.

The chart is bearish.  

After such a poor day, coming at the low end of a down trend, we might get some relief to the upside.

After a weak lead from overseas Australia was also hit today with poor economic news out of China.  That hit our big niners very hard.  BHP -3.38%, Rio -2.1% and FMG -3.03%.

Japan =1.41% and Hong Kong -1.94%.

Europe is down modestly in early trading - STOXX600 down -0.22%.

America is still held spell bound by the Debt Ceiling dealings. U.S. Futures are down a little,

Dow Futs -0.18%.  SP Futs -0.21%.  Nas Futs -0.24%.

31/5/23. Wednesday Finspiration Report.

 Europe down, Mixed results in the U.S.

Dow Jones -0.15%.  SP500 flat +0.00%.  Nasdaq +0.32%.  Mid Caps -0.1%.  Small Caps -0.49%.  Banks +0.3%.

SP500.

SP500 finished flat after intra-day selling knocked down an early positive start.

The chart remains bullish with the 20DMA and 50DMA both pointed to the upside.  Supertrend 7/1.5 remains bullish (yellow) and the chart is above the Ichimoku Base Line.

U.S. stock Futures remain flat while the U.S. law makers play their games.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.32%.  Energy -3.53%.  Base Metals -0.95%.  Agriculture -0.62%.  Gold +0.62%.

Gold is about the only positive in an otherwise dreary landscape.

ASX has opened down this morning.  After a few minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.35%.