Finspiration Australia.

 4/5/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

The ASX finished flat today after opening well down.  XJO -0.06%.

Below is a chart for STW - tracking ETF for the XJO.  I'm using an equivolume chart which shows graphically the amount of volume in each candle.

The chart remains bearish.  Today's action takes the chart up to test the 200-Day MA as resistance.

If STW fails that test (i.e., drops down), then we will probably get much more selling.

Finspiration Australia.

 4/5/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S., Federal Reserve raises interest rates +0.25%, stocks fell.

Dow Jones -0.8%.  SP500 -0.7%.  Nasdaq -0.46%.  Mid Caps -0.12%.  Small Caps +0.02%.  Banks -1.89%,

SP500 

SP500 is short-term bearish but in a sideways consolidation movement.  Support lies at 4080.  SP500 finished at 4091.  Let's see what happens at support.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.27%.  Energy -3.52%.  Base Metals -0.37%.  Agriculture +0.29%.  Gold +0.85%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Evening Report Finspiration Australia 

ASX down heavily today.

XJO down today -0.96% with a little hopeful bottom picking late in the day.

We've had any number of short and medium term sell signals all marked with arrows.

The trend is currently bearish.

After two big downside days we could get a bounce but it would take a very optimistic Federal Reserve decision tonight to pull this out of its blue funk.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.

Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

SP500.

Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 2/5/23.  RBA raises interest rates (unexpectedly) and says more to come.  ASX drops sharply.  XJO down -0.9%.

Here's today's chart of the XJO.

XJO has now failed at horizontal resistance, and is short-term bearish.  It remains above the Kumo Cloud where it may find support.

I don't say that with a lot of confidence.

Consider the following chart of Historical Volatility:

We can see that Historical Volatility is at a low level, even a bit lower than the past two times.  It has now turned up.  

I could have loaded up a much longer time frame which has more examples of such low levels, but this will do for the purposes of illustration.

Below is a Weekly Chart of the XJO with times pinpointed when HV was at such low levels the past two times.

HV turning up from a low level has been fairly good at predicting further declines.

Tonight (Oz Time) the Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting.  They will hand down their interest rate decision on Thursday night (Oz time).

Currently, European stocks are leading to the down-side, Euro STOXX600 down -0.36%.  Dow Futures are down -0.19%.

Finspiration Australia

 2/5/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. - Little movement - waiting on the Fed.

Dow Jones -0.14%.  SP500 -0.04%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.01%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Banks -1.79%.

SP500.

The tombstone doji candlestick coming at resistance usually means "bearish".  This looks set up for a pull-back after the Fed's announcement.  That's not necessarily the case.  We might have a surprise - but the probabilities now lie to the downside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.95%.  Energy -0.84%.  Base Metals strong +0.94% but pulling back from the 20-Day MA.  Agriculture -1.05%.  Gold -0.45%.

Sydney Futures were flat.  After 10 minutes of trading this morning, XJO down -0.25%.

Finspiration Australia.

 1.5.23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

ASX up modestly today after being well up early in the session.  XJO +0.35%.

XJO remains above its 8-Day EMA which is a positive, but remains under key horizontal resistance and triple bearish Supertrend lines.

eight out of eleven sectors were up.  Best Sector was Utilities +1.3%, followed by Energy +1%, Health +0.9% and Financials 0.8%.  Worst was Info Tech -1.4%, followed by Materials. -0.4%

Not much happening overseas. Europe shut for May Day and pre-market futures in America are also flat.