Finspiration Australia.

 4/5/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S., Federal Reserve raises interest rates +0.25%, stocks fell.

Dow Jones -0.8%.  SP500 -0.7%.  Nasdaq -0.46%.  Mid Caps -0.12%.  Small Caps +0.02%.  Banks -1.89%,

SP500 

SP500 is short-term bearish but in a sideways consolidation movement.  Support lies at 4080.  SP500 finished at 4091.  Let's see what happens at support.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.27%.  Energy -3.52%.  Base Metals -0.37%.  Agriculture +0.29%.  Gold +0.85%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Evening Report Finspiration Australia 

ASX down heavily today.

XJO down today -0.96% with a little hopeful bottom picking late in the day.

We've had any number of short and medium term sell signals all marked with arrows.

The trend is currently bearish.

After two big downside days we could get a bounce but it would take a very optimistic Federal Reserve decision tonight to pull this out of its blue funk.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. declines with banks and energy leading to the downside.

Dow Jones -1.08%.  SP500 -1.1%.  Nasdaq -1.08%.  Mid Caps -1.43%.  Small Caps -1.9%.  Banks -4.47%.

SP500.

Monday's doji candle stick evolved into Tuesday's bearish candle stock.  

Short-term the SP500 is bearish.  It looks like the big punters are betting on an unfavourable result from the Fed meeting due tonight (Ox time).  The market expects a small rise in the Fed's interest rate - guidance is debatable - but Tuesday's action is looking pessimistic.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -2.27%.  Energy -4.22%.  Base Metals -1.76%.  Agriculture -0.92%.  Gold +1.93%.

After ten minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.6%.

Finspiration Australia.

 2/5/23.  RBA raises interest rates (unexpectedly) and says more to come.  ASX drops sharply.  XJO down -0.9%.

Here's today's chart of the XJO.

XJO has now failed at horizontal resistance, and is short-term bearish.  It remains above the Kumo Cloud where it may find support.

I don't say that with a lot of confidence.

Consider the following chart of Historical Volatility:

We can see that Historical Volatility is at a low level, even a bit lower than the past two times.  It has now turned up.  

I could have loaded up a much longer time frame which has more examples of such low levels, but this will do for the purposes of illustration.

Below is a Weekly Chart of the XJO with times pinpointed when HV was at such low levels the past two times.

HV turning up from a low level has been fairly good at predicting further declines.

Tonight (Oz Time) the Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting.  They will hand down their interest rate decision on Thursday night (Oz time).

Currently, European stocks are leading to the down-side, Euro STOXX600 down -0.36%.  Dow Futures are down -0.19%.

Finspiration Australia

 2/5/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. - Little movement - waiting on the Fed.

Dow Jones -0.14%.  SP500 -0.04%.  Nasdaq -0.11%.  Mid Caps -0.01%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Banks -1.79%.

SP500.

The tombstone doji candlestick coming at resistance usually means "bearish".  This looks set up for a pull-back after the Fed's announcement.  That's not necessarily the case.  We might have a surprise - but the probabilities now lie to the downside.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.95%.  Energy -0.84%.  Base Metals strong +0.94% but pulling back from the 20-Day MA.  Agriculture -1.05%.  Gold -0.45%.

Sydney Futures were flat.  After 10 minutes of trading this morning, XJO down -0.25%.

Finspiration Australia.

 1.5.23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

ASX up modestly today after being well up early in the session.  XJO +0.35%.

XJO remains above its 8-Day EMA which is a positive, but remains under key horizontal resistance and triple bearish Supertrend lines.

eight out of eleven sectors were up.  Best Sector was Utilities +1.3%, followed by Energy +1%, Health +0.9% and Financials 0.8%.  Worst was Info Tech -1.4%, followed by Materials. -0.4%

Not much happening overseas. Europe shut for May Day and pre-market futures in America are also flat.

Finspiration Australia

       30/4/23.  Weekend Report -Week Ended 14/3523.

The Australian market eased back this week with the XJO down -0.29%.  In America, their market was strong.  Dow Jones up +0.86%.  SP500 +0.87%.  Nasdaq +1.88%.  Why?  Simple.  This past week saw some of the big American tech companies report (e.g. META, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet).  Their reports were received enthusiastically.  Australia, unlike America, doesn't have a big tech sector in its market, so we didn't follow the Americans to the upside.

OK - Let's get into it.

Long-Term View.  XJO Monthly Chart.

In April,XJO finished up +1.83%.  

The index finished above its 8-Month EMA.  Hull MA13 is bullish and Supertrend (10/1) is bullish.

RSI is above 50 - bullish.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little.

Double MACD is trending sideways.

On Balance, the XJO finished bullish for the month.

Medium-Term View - XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO lost a little ground in the past two weeks (-0.48% and -0.29% after a strong second week (up +1.98%). 

RSI is its 20-Day MA - that's bullish.  DZ stochastic remains bullish but into its overbought zone.

The chart finished above its 8-Week EMA.  Hull MA13 remains bullish and Supertrend (10,1) is bullish.

Again, the only blemish on the chart is the Double MACD which hasn't had a positive cross-over.  It tends to lag bit.

Short-term View - XJO Daily Chart.

The short-term view turned bearish this week.  The index was under pressure the previous week when Hull MA13 turned down.  This week, the chart finished below its 8-Day EMA, Supertrend turned bearish and Hull MA13 remained bearish.  

RSI finished below its 20-Day MA and DZ Stochastic has given a sell signal.  Double MACD has had a bearish x-0ver and CCI has closed below its 8-Day EMA.

With both Weekly and Monthly charts both bullish - we are probably looking at a short-term pull-back in the ASX.  Wait to see if this turns bullish before re-entry.

Daily Chart with Standard Error Channel.

XJO shows at the bottom edge of the Standard Error Channel.  This is a statistical representation of normal distribution of an Index or Stock.  As XJO is at the lower edge - we can expect a move back up to the upside.  It won't necessarily happen - but the probability is high.

SP500 Daily

SP500 has turned bullish - and that will probably drag the XJO back into bullish territory.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

This week, ups and downs in the sectors were fairly even with a slight lean to the bearish side.

Four sectors were clearly up,  Property +2.07%m Telecommunications Services +1.7%, Information Technology +1.07%, Industrials +0.42%.  Financials finished just marginally on the positive side, +0.02%.

Five sectors were clearly down.  Materials -1.68%,  Utilities -0.95%, Health -0.58%, Energy -0.48%.  Discretionary fell marginally on the negative side, -004%.

Financials make up 25.8% of the ASX, Materials make up 23.6%.  Almost half the ASX is made up of those two sectors.  Extreme weakness in one or the other means the ASX will fall.  That happened this week with Materials down -1.68% while Financials was flat.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend. XIJ, XTJ, XPJ, XNJ.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XUJ.

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ,

Up then down - counter trend bearish pull-back.  XDJ, XHJ, XSJ, Gold, Composite Bonds (IAF).

Daily over-bought Momentum shows up in Telecoms - so it may not pay to go chasing strong stocks in that sector (e.g., Telstra).

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative is above all its MAs (5,10,21).  This is giving it a positive diversion from the ASX chart.  That's a positive development and suggests more upside in the XJO.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The past two weeks have favoured bonds over stocks - the ratio chart is falling.  

A negative x-over of the 5-Day MA below the 21-Day MA is usually a good sign of a return to bear market conditions.  That hasn't happened yet - but could happen if bonds continue to be favoured over stocks.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 56%, This Week 46%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 69%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 68%, This Week 61%.

4.  % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 43%, This Week 42%

We're seeing a mixed picture this week with long-term indicators remain in bullish territory while the shorter term indicators are in bearish territory.

The chart for stocks above the 200-Day MA has fallen back below its 5-Week MA but remains above its mid-line (50%).  That's in keeping with the pull-back we've seen so far this past couple of weeks.

Conclusion.

The past two weeks appear to be a pull-back in an on-going bullish market.  Watch for a resumption of the short-term upside trend this week.  No guarantees, but the probabilities lie to the upside.