Finspiration Australia

 20/4/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight in the U.S.  Little change in the U.S. again last night.

Dow Jones -0.23%.  SP500 -0.01%.  Nasdaq +0.03%.  Mid Caps +0.18%.  Small Caps +0.31%.  Banks +1.6%.

SP500.

SP500 remains above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend (10/1).

DZ Stochastic and Double MACD have given marginal sell signals, but not confirmed by RSI.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -1.39%.  Energy -1.71%.  Base Metals -0.6%.  Agriculture -0.89%.  Gold -0.48%.

Yesterday in Australia we had a flat day with Miners up and Banks down.  Today it seems we'll have another flat day but relative strength reversed, Banks up and Miners down.

Finspiration Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

ASX barely moved today.  XJO up +0.07%

XJO continues to flirt with the horizontal support/resistance line.  It's now had five touches of that line in six days.

The trend remains bullish.

Today was a narrow range day - look for range expansion tomorrow which may lead the way higher or lower.

Overseas markets tonight are not looking happy.  European STOXX600 is currently down -0.31%.  Dow Futures down -0.41%.  Bitcoin USD down -2.96%.

Finspirtion Australia.

 19/4/23.  Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Overnight:  US finishes with little change.

Dow Jones -0.03%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.04%.  Mid Caps -0.13%.  Small Caps -0.53%.  Banks+0.17%.

SP500.

SP500 is close to a major horizontal resistance level.  

The chart is in a bearish upscoping wedge which usually breaks to the downside.

Continue to watch for a downside break.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.21%.  Energy -0.35%.  Base Metals +1.11%.  Agriculture +0.47%.  Gold +0.39%.

After 30 minutes of trading this morning,  XJO is up +0.1% in choppy trading.  Miners are strong, banks are weak.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly last night, +3.21%.  Technically, bearish conditions continue to exist.

MACD shows a negative double divergence.  Supertrend remains bearish and Hull MA13 is turned down.

Monday's downside move could be a one-off - but until indicators turn bullish - I'll stick with my original analysis.

Finspiration Australia.

 18/4/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

ASX down modestly today.

XJO lost -0.29%.

The Index remains bullish.  Nothing untoward to see in the indicators.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia

 18/4/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Modest gains in the U.S. overnight.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.33%.  Nasdaq +0.28%.  Mid Caps +0.76%.  Small Caps +0.59%.  Banks +1.4%.

SP500.

The up-trend in the SP500 remains bullish.

DZ Stochastic continues to flirt with its "sell" line - last night it lifted just above the upper line of its Dynamic Zones.  RSI remains clear of its "sell" line - the 20-Day MA.  Both must confirm

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.41%.  Energy -1%.  Base Metals -0.55%.  Agriculture +1.39%.  Gold -0.45%.

ASX Futures down -0.2% - that suggests the Oz market will have a weak opening.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down heavily overnight, -2.88%.

Lots of bearish signals:

• Three doji candlesticks in a row (lots of indecision) followed by a big bearish candle (indecision eradicated).  
• Last night also fell below a major support/resistance line set back in May 2022.
• The first Supertrend line has turned bearish.
• Last night's candle fell below the 8-Day EMA.
• RSI has fallen below its mid-line (20-Day MA).  That's a sell signal.
• Dynamic Zone Stochastic has confirmed the RSI sell signal by falling below the upper line of the Dynamic Zones.

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

17/4/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO up modestly today.  +0.27% 

XJO finished the day above horizontal resistance, but, with a narrow range day, it wasn't a particularly convincing performance today.

Everything on the chart remains bullish, except for a small negative divergence setting up on CCI.

The lack-lustre trading in Australia today seems to be carrying over to U.S. Futures.  Dow Jones up marginally +0.05%.  SP500 +0.09%.  Nasdaq -0.02%.

      16/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 14/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had two weeks so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +2.56%.  Compared this month to lat month, the chart is looking bullish - too early, however, to decide.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

RSI is above 50 - bullish.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down just a little

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in bullish mode, with all three Supertrend lines turning yellow.

DZ Stochastic is above its "buy" line.

RSI is above its centre line (20-Day MA), that's a "buy" signal.

Those two indicators confirm each other.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +1.98% this week.

XJO was up eleven of the past 13 days.  That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it may be faltering at horizontal resistance.

DZ Stochastic and RSI remain in their bullish zones. 

Steady as she goes, Cap'n.  (Until it turns down.). Watch what happens at resistance.

SP500 Daily

Sp500 had a wide-range day on Friday, and failed at a minor Horizontal resistance level.

DZ Stock shows a negative divergence from the SPX Chart and has marginally broken below its "sell" line.

RSI remains above its 20-Day MA (its "sell" line" so it is not yet confirming the marginal "sell" signal  from DZ Stoch.  Any further downside and we will have a confirmed short-term "sell" signal on SPX.  That would invitably affect the XJO.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

All sectors were up this week - breadth was good.  XMJ (Materials) had a return to form after losing ground the previous week.  XMJ up this week +4.08%.

XIJ was also up strongly, +2.55%.  Both are cyclical sectors.

The weakest sectors were both defensives, XHJ +0.3% and XUJ +0.12%

This is a picture of a strong market.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XPJ, XNJ, XGD/

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  Nil

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors. IAF (composite bonds)

All sectors show either bullish momentum or are in counter-trend bullish rallies.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

This week NH-NL Cumulative is back above both its 10-Day MA and its 21-Day MA.  That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio remains in a strong bullish rally.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 81%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 51%, This Week 63%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 60%, This Week 67%.

4.  % of stocks above Hull MA13, Last week 76%, This Week 61%

All top three indicators have improved this week.  % of Stocks above 10-Day MA is getting a little overbought but the other two indicators are still far from being overbought.

Stocks positive on the Hull MA13 fell this week from 76% to 61%.  Hull MA13, despite its name, is a short-term indicator.  This means that a bit of a pull-back occurred late in the week.

Conclusion.

 

Everything is looking AOK for the Australian market.  What could go wrong.

That gives me a quaesy feeling in the pit of my stomach.  

I might still suffer from PTSD as a result of the massive fall in the markets back in October, 1987.  Yes - everything looked OK back then too - then we had the biggest one-day fall in history.

Is this the calm before the storm?  Is a flock of black swans lurking below the horizon.  European real estate to implode?  Escalation in the Ukraine/Russian War.

CNN has a "Fear and Greed" Index - which contrarians like to refer to.  It is currently in the "Greed" quadrant.  "Extreme Greed" usually occurs before a fall.

The FnG Index is a composite of seven indicators.  Currently, the following are showing "Extreme Greed:  

1.  SP500 and its 125 Day MA.

2.  Put/Call Options.

3.  Safe Haven Demand

Three out of the seven indicators are in Extreme Greed territory.  It wouldn't take much to switch the whole Index into Extreme Greed reading.

It never pays to become too complacent about the market.  Nor does it pay to jump like a startled rabbit at the any sign of a pull-back.  

Stay vigilant.