Finspiration Australia

12/4/23.  Bitcoin Sinspiration Report.

 Bitcoin up again last night, +4.64%.

The chart remains bullish - stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

 12/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S markets mixed overnight.  Rio up >5% in London.

Dow Jones +0.29%.  SP500 -0.00%.  Nasdaq -40%.  The front-line troops of the market (Mid Caps and Small Caps) were both positive.  Mid Caps +0.89%.  Small Caps +0.73%.  Banks were also positive, +1.28%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced off the 8-Day EMA, - that's a positive.  In the very short-term, however, Hull MA13 has turned down.  Watch for direction in the next session as today's candle was a doji - indecision.

U.S. is coming up to important inflation data which will likely be market moving.

SP500 remains in an up-trend - above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.54%.  Energy +0.87%.  Base Metals -0.31%.  Agriculture +0.68%.  Gold +0.63%.

ASX Futures point to a positive opening this morning, +0.25%.

We should have another positive day today.

Finspiration Australia.

 11/4/23  Tuesday Evening Inspiration Report.

XJO is in a strong upside trend.  Today, XJO was up +1.26% despite a lack lustre lead from the U.S. last night.

XJO jumped up this morning away from its recent short-term consolidation.  It finished well above its 50-Day MA.  

The three Supertrend lines are all strongly bullish.

After such a strong day we might see some settling back tomorrow.  

Next resistance level is at 7365, support at 7226.  XJO finished today at 7310.

Both DZ Stochastic and RSI confirm the uptrend.  RSI is at 62.32 - so there's more room to move before it gets into overbought territory.

Until otherwise indicated stay with the trend.

Stay safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 11/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. up modestly.

Dow Jones +0.3%.  SP500 +0.1%.  Nasdaq flat -0.03%.  Small Caps +1.2%.  Banks +0.82%.

SP500.

SP500 is in a sideways consolidation.  The medium term trend remains up.  

The past two days show intra-day buying.

Stay with the up-trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index flat +0.00%.  Energy flat +0.09%.  Base Metals -0.51%.  Agriculture +0.24%.  Gold -0.74%.

Although Base Metals finished to the down-side, there was a lot of intra-day buying which augurs well for our miners today.

Bitcoin.

BTC has a big rise last night, up +4.64% and has broken upwards from its long side-ways consolidation.

The crypto remains in an up-trend.  Stay with the trend.

     9/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had only one week so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +0.57% and remains within the range of the month of March.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

PPO is above 0 - that suggests a bullish trend.  It's been that way since Dec. 2020.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down - indecisive.

Schaff Trend Cycle is just below its "buy" line.  It wouldn't take much to turn that bullish.

This is only at the beginning of the month, so no decisions made on this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in a counter-trend rally against the big fall from early February to late March.  We need to see all three Supertrend Lines to turn yellow to presume that we have a new upside trend.  

DZ Stochastic has turned up but hasn't crossed above its "buy" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle remains under  its "do not buy" line.

PPO is marginally above its zero line.  We need to see it turn up from there to be confident of a new bullish trend.  

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +0.57% this week.

XJO was up eight days in a row until the negative day on Thursday. That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it appears to be faltering with three narrow-range doji candlesticks in a row.  That's occurring at a support-resistance line at 7226.  XJO finished the week at 7219 - marginally below horizontal resistance.

That Horizontal Resistance Line also coincides with the 50% retracement of the fall from early Feb. to late March.  Reversal of trends often occur at the 50% level.

DZ Stochastic has turned down but remains above its "sell" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle also remains above its "sell" line.  PPO is marginally above its zero line.

All that suggests that the coming week could be crucial to the future of the XJO.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

XMJ (Materials) was the dog in the major this week.  (Not quite an appropriate metaphor in the Easter Week).

XMJ was the only negative sector - down -2,72%,

Defensive Sectors were fairly strong this week:  XHJ +3.83%, XSJ +1.78%, XUJ + 1.78%, XTJ +1.68%.  

That suggests we've seen a rotation into defense against the usually strong XMJ.  It should be kept in mind that XMJ was up +7.01% in the previous week.  So it's not surprising that it had a fall this week.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

Some sectors were affected this week, XHJ moved into the bullish section.  Materials moved from "bullish counter trend rally" to "bearish".  Again - this emphasises the shift into defense from offence.

Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are bullish - both of those tend to be safe havens.

XJO remains in a "counter trend rally"

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  This week it moved back above its 10-Day MA.   That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The recent strong 8-Day bullish rally took the Stocks/Bonds Ratio into an upside movement.

Then, the past couple of days has seen it equivocate.  It nudged above the zero line, then fell back below the zero line.  The zero line is the demarcation between medium tern bullish and bearish.

Historical and Implied Volatility.

When Historical Volatility falls below Implied Volatility - the market is usually in a short-term bullish trend.  (HV is based on historical data of the XJO.  Implied Volatility is based on data from the VIX Index.)

When HV gets down to around the 5 level, a reversal in the XJO trend usually occurs.  HV is not far off that level.

(This is often a leading or co-incident indicator.)

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 40%, This Week 51%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 60%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA has stalled this week at 77%.  Medium term and long term the market improved.

Conclusion.

 

XJO has had a strong counter-trend rally but appears to be stalling at Horizontal Resistance.

I've outlined plenty of pluses and minuses, and maybes about the market this week.  Nothing convincing one way or the other.

The coming week may be crucial for the near-term future of the XJO.

XJO resumes trading on Tuesday.  America will resume on Monday so that could provide an indication of where our market will go.

Addendum.

Asian markets, which were not closed on Friday, were up, Japan +0.17%.  Korea +1.27%, Hong Kong +0.28%, Shanghai +0.45%.

In America on Friday, Non-Farm payrolls indicated a slowing in employment.  CNBC commented: 

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

That might give the American market hope for a slowing or pause in Federal Reserve interest rate rises and a boost to stock markets.

U.S. Futures were mildly positive on Friday.  Dow Jones +0.19%, SP500 +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

That's all relatively positive for America on Monday night - but anything can happen.  Wait for Tuesday morning.

Finspiration Australia.

 7/4/23.  Friday Inspiration Report.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO had a modest fall.

XJO down -0.25%.

The index is hovering around horizontal minor resistance at 7226.  That's also at the 50% retracement of the fall from 6 Feb. to 21 Mar.  That could signal the start of a pull-back.

For now, the chart remains bullish.  Indicators  (RSI and Stochastic) have turned down but not yet signalling a "sell".

If we do get a pullback, a significant horizontal support lies at 7150.  XJO is currently at 7219.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones flat +0.01%.  SP500 +0.36%.  Nasdaq +0.76%.  Small Caps flat +0.02%.  Banks +1.05%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced up off horizontal support at 4000 (round figures).  That suggests that the current pull-back is over.  Look now for a test of major resistance at 4177, that's the high from 2 Feb.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.29%.  Energy -0.61%.  Base Metals +0.15%.  Agriculture +0.98%.  Gold -0.71%.

The double doji on Base Metals suggests that the current pull-back may be over.

U.S. has another session of trading before our market re-opens on Tuesday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down -0.49% overnight.  It remains in a long sideways consolidation.  Support and resistance are clearly indicated on the chart.  Wait to see which way this breaks.

  6/4/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.

Dow Jones +0.24%.  SP500 -0.25%.  Nasdaq -1.07%.  Small Caps -0.82%.  Banks -0.5%.

SP500.

The chart is below the 3-DEMA but above the 8-DEMA.  DZStochastic remains above the sell line but turned down.  Schall Trend Cycle remains above its sell line.  Wait for definite signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.37%.  Energy+0.95%.  Base Metals -0.61%.  Agriculture +0.49%.  Gold -0.08%.

ASX Futures down just -0.1% - looks like another uneventful day before Easter.

Bitcoin (USD)

BTCUSD up +1.35%.  BTC remains in a wide consolidation pattern.  Indicators (DZStochastic and Schaff Trend Cycle) are on short-term "sell" signals.

Notice, however, that the bands on DZStochastic are narrow so it wouldn't take much to flick this into a bullish configuration.

Until horizontal support is broken, this remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait.