9/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 6/3523.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had only one week so far in April.  XJO is up, so far, +0.57% and remains within the range of the month of March.

The three Supertrend lines are showing a non-trending long term index, one Supertrend line above the chart and two Supertrend lines below the chart.  All three Suprertrend lines are horizontal - indicative of a sideways trend.

PPO is above 0 - that suggests a bullish trend.  It's been that way since Dec. 2020.

DZ Stochastic is above its buy line, but turned down - indecisive.

Schaff Trend Cycle is just below its "buy" line.  It wouldn't take much to turn that bullish.

This is only at the beginning of the month, so no decisions made on this chart.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

The weekly chart shows the XJO in a counter-trend rally against the big fall from early February to late March.  We need to see all three Supertrend Lines to turn yellow to presume that we have a new upside trend.  

DZ Stochastic has turned up but hasn't crossed above its "buy" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle remains under  its "do not buy" line.

PPO is marginally above its zero line.  We need to see it turn up from there to be confident of a new bullish trend.  

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO was up +0.57% this week.

XJO was up eight days in a row until the negative day on Thursday. That's an unusually strong short-term rally, and it appears to be faltering with three narrow-range doji candlesticks in a row.  That's occurring at a support-resistance line at 7226.  XJO finished the week at 7219 - marginally below horizontal resistance.

That Horizontal Resistance Line also coincides with the 50% retracement of the fall from early Feb. to late March.  Reversal of trends often occur at the 50% level.

DZ Stochastic has turned down but remains above its "sell" line.  Schaff Trend Cycle also remains above its "sell" line.  PPO is marginally above its zero line.

All that suggests that the coming week could be crucial to the future of the XJO.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

XMJ (Materials) was the dog in the major this week.  (Not quite an appropriate metaphor in the Easter Week).

XMJ was the only negative sector - down -2,72%,

Defensive Sectors were fairly strong this week:  XHJ +3.83%, XSJ +1.78%, XUJ + 1.78%, XTJ +1.68%.  

That suggests we've seen a rotation into defense against the usually strong XMJ.  It should be kept in mind that XMJ was up +7.01% in the previous week.  So it's not surprising that it had a fall this week.

Sector Momentum.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XHJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XMJ, XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XEJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

Some sectors were affected this week, XHJ moved into the bullish section.  Materials moved from "bullish counter trend rally" to "bearish".  Again - this emphasises the shift into defense from offence.

Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are bullish - both of those tend to be safe havens.

XJO remains in a "counter trend rally"

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  This week it moved back above its 10-Day MA.   That's a promising sign for long-term investors.

Stocks/Bonds Ratio.

The recent strong 8-Day bullish rally took the Stocks/Bonds Ratio into an upside movement.

Then, the past couple of days has seen it equivocate.  It nudged above the zero line, then fell back below the zero line.  The zero line is the demarcation between medium tern bullish and bearish.

Historical and Implied Volatility.

When Historical Volatility falls below Implied Volatility - the market is usually in a short-term bullish trend.  (HV is based on historical data of the XJO.  Implied Volatility is based on data from the VIX Index.)

When HV gets down to around the 5 level, a reversal in the XJO trend usually occurs.  HV is not far off that level.

(This is often a leading or co-incident indicator.)

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 77%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 40%, This Week 51%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 60%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA has stalled this week at 77%.  Medium term and long term the market improved.

Conclusion.

 

XJO has had a strong counter-trend rally but appears to be stalling at Horizontal Resistance.

I've outlined plenty of pluses and minuses, and maybes about the market this week.  Nothing convincing one way or the other.

The coming week may be crucial for the near-term future of the XJO.

XJO resumes trading on Tuesday.  America will resume on Monday so that could provide an indication of where our market will go.

Addendum.

Asian markets, which were not closed on Friday, were up, Japan +0.17%.  Korea +1.27%, Hong Kong +0.28%, Shanghai +0.45%.

In America on Friday, Non-Farm payrolls indicated a slowing in employment.  CNBC commented: 

Nonfarm payrolls growth in March was about in line with expectations, but showed signs that the jobs picture is in the early stages of a slowdown.

That might give the American market hope for a slowing or pause in Federal Reserve interest rate rises and a boost to stock markets.

U.S. Futures were mildly positive on Friday.  Dow Jones +0.19%, SP500 +0.23%, Nasdaq +0.1%.

That's all relatively positive for America on Monday night - but anything can happen.  Wait for Tuesday morning.

Finspiration Australia.

 7/4/23.  Friday Inspiration Report.

Yesterday in Australia, XJO had a modest fall.

XJO down -0.25%.

The index is hovering around horizontal minor resistance at 7226.  That's also at the 50% retracement of the fall from 6 Feb. to 21 Mar.  That could signal the start of a pull-back.

For now, the chart remains bullish.  Indicators  (RSI and Stochastic) have turned down but not yet signalling a "sell".

If we do get a pullback, a significant horizontal support lies at 7150.  XJO is currently at 7219.

Overnight in the U.S.

Dow Jones flat +0.01%.  SP500 +0.36%.  Nasdaq +0.76%.  Small Caps flat +0.02%.  Banks +1.05%.

SP500.

SP500 has bounced up off horizontal support at 4000 (round figures).  That suggests that the current pull-back is over.  Look now for a test of major resistance at 4177, that's the high from 2 Feb.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.29%.  Energy -0.61%.  Base Metals +0.15%.  Agriculture +0.98%.  Gold -0.71%.

The double doji on Base Metals suggests that the current pull-back may be over.

U.S. has another session of trading before our market re-opens on Tuesday.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was down -0.49% overnight.  It remains in a long sideways consolidation.  Support and resistance are clearly indicated on the chart.  Wait to see which way this breaks.

  6/4/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.

Dow Jones +0.24%.  SP500 -0.25%.  Nasdaq -1.07%.  Small Caps -0.82%.  Banks -0.5%.

SP500.

The chart is below the 3-DEMA but above the 8-DEMA.  DZStochastic remains above the sell line but turned down.  Schall Trend Cycle remains above its sell line.  Wait for definite signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.37%.  Energy+0.95%.  Base Metals -0.61%.  Agriculture +0.49%.  Gold -0.08%.

ASX Futures down just -0.1% - looks like another uneventful day before Easter.

Bitcoin (USD)

BTCUSD up +1.35%.  BTC remains in a wide consolidation pattern.  Indicators (DZStochastic and Schaff Trend Cycle) are on short-term "sell" signals.

Notice, however, that the bands on DZStochastic are narrow so it wouldn't take much to flick this into a bullish configuration.

Until horizontal support is broken, this remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia.

 5/4/23.  Australian market finishes flat today.

XJO finished just up today, +0.02%.

Today's candle is a doji which is often an ominous signal coming at the top of an up-trend.

Today was the eighth day to the upside.  That's getting a bit old for a short-term up-trend.  Of course, it can go higher, but the probabilities now lie to the downside.

Despite the marginal upside finish, breadth was good with nine out of eleven sectors finishing in positive territory.

Negative sectors today were in the resources:  XMJ (Materials) -0.6% and XEJ (Energy) -0.6%.

Amongst the large cap stocks today, BHP -1.5% and Rio -0.9% were the worst performers.

Best performer was Telecommunications +0.8%.  Three sectors recorded rises of +0.7%: XIJ, XNJ and XHJ.  Those three sectors are now sitting at strong overhead resistance - adding weight to the idea that we may see a pull-back.

 5/4/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Major Indices down.

Dow Jones -0.59%.  SP500 -0.58%.  Nasdaq -0.52%.  Small Caps -1.98%.  Banks -1.97%.

SP500.

SP500 chart shows a bearish engulfing candle so we will probably see more downside.

So far, no real damage has been done technically.  The chart is sitting on the 3-DEMA and above the 8-DEMA.  DZStochastic remains above the sell line but turned down.  Schall Trend Cycle remains above its sell line.  Wait for definite signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.38%.  Base Metals -1.5%.  Agriculture -0.49%.  Gold +1.86%.

After an hour's trading this morning, XJO is flat +0.05% after being up in the first half-hour.

Bitcoin (USD)

BTC remains in a wide consolidation pattern.  Indicators (DZStochastic and Schaff Trend Cycle) are on short-term "sell" signals.

Notice, however, that the bands on DZStochastic are narrow so it wouldn't take much to flick this into a bullish configuration.

Until horizontal support is broken, this remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia.

 4/4/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Reserve Bank Interest Rate Day - A Fizzer?

XJO finished higher today - up just +0.18%.

Interest Rate Day often produces some sharp movements in the market - but not today.  After the "No Change" announcement, XJO did move higher but not much, up 14 points or +0.19%.  That's not a lot compared to what it can do on IRD.

Notice how the XJO moved up in the five minutes before the interest rate announcement.  Somebody (or somebodies) seems to have pre-empted the IR announcement.  I suspect it occurred while there was some unseen selling going on in the background - two bob each way.  If it goes down, the punter/s exits the buy side and let the sell side cascade down.  If it goes up - exit the sell side and enjoy the ride.  Remember that HFT Algorithms react in a milli-second, and large institutions act within one second.  No retail trader can hope to compete in these sudden changes in direction.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  A big hit was taken by XMJ (Materials), down -0.9%.  BHP, the largest stock in that sector, was down -2.2% today.

Best sector was Energy, up +1.3%.  It got a push higher from oil price rises overnight - as a result of cuts by OPEC to their output.

Here's the XMJ Chart:

XMJ finished the day below the Short-Term Line (3-DEMA) but remains above the 8DEMA (dashed line).  A finish below that would be short-term bearish.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.