6/4/23. Thursday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.

Dow Jones +0.24%.  SP500 -0.25%.  Nasdaq -1.07%.  Small Caps -0.82%.  Banks -0.5%.

SP500.

The chart is below the 3-DEMA but above the 8-DEMA.  DZStochastic remains above the sell line but turned down.  Schall Trend Cycle remains above its sell line.  Wait for definite signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.37%.  Energy+0.95%.  Base Metals -0.61%.  Agriculture +0.49%.  Gold -0.08%.

ASX Futures down just -0.1% - looks like another uneventful day before Easter.

Bitcoin (USD)

BTCUSD up +1.35%.  BTC remains in a wide consolidation pattern.  Indicators (DZStochastic and Schaff Trend Cycle) are on short-term "sell" signals.

Notice, however, that the bands on DZStochastic are narrow so it wouldn't take much to flick this into a bullish configuration.

Until horizontal support is broken, this remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia.

 5/4/23.  Australian market finishes flat today.

XJO finished just up today, +0.02%.

Today's candle is a doji which is often an ominous signal coming at the top of an up-trend.

Today was the eighth day to the upside.  That's getting a bit old for a short-term up-trend.  Of course, it can go higher, but the probabilities now lie to the downside.

Despite the marginal upside finish, breadth was good with nine out of eleven sectors finishing in positive territory.

Negative sectors today were in the resources:  XMJ (Materials) -0.6% and XEJ (Energy) -0.6%.

Amongst the large cap stocks today, BHP -1.5% and Rio -0.9% were the worst performers.

Best performer was Telecommunications +0.8%.  Three sectors recorded rises of +0.7%: XIJ, XNJ and XHJ.  Those three sectors are now sitting at strong overhead resistance - adding weight to the idea that we may see a pull-back.

 5/4/23. Wednesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Major Indices down.

Dow Jones -0.59%.  SP500 -0.58%.  Nasdaq -0.52%.  Small Caps -1.98%.  Banks -1.97%.

SP500.

SP500 chart shows a bearish engulfing candle so we will probably see more downside.

So far, no real damage has been done technically.  The chart is sitting on the 3-DEMA and above the 8-DEMA.  DZStochastic remains above the sell line but turned down.  Schall Trend Cycle remains above its sell line.  Wait for definite signals.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.12%.  Energy -0.38%.  Base Metals -1.5%.  Agriculture -0.49%.  Gold +1.86%.

After an hour's trading this morning, XJO is flat +0.05% after being up in the first half-hour.

Bitcoin (USD)

BTC remains in a wide consolidation pattern.  Indicators (DZStochastic and Schaff Trend Cycle) are on short-term "sell" signals.

Notice, however, that the bands on DZStochastic are narrow so it wouldn't take much to flick this into a bullish configuration.

Until horizontal support is broken, this remains in a sideways consolidation.  Wait.

Finspiration Australia.

 4/4/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Reserve Bank Interest Rate Day - A Fizzer?

XJO finished higher today - up just +0.18%.

Interest Rate Day often produces some sharp movements in the market - but not today.  After the "No Change" announcement, XJO did move higher but not much, up 14 points or +0.19%.  That's not a lot compared to what it can do on IRD.

Notice how the XJO moved up in the five minutes before the interest rate announcement.  Somebody (or somebodies) seems to have pre-empted the IR announcement.  I suspect it occurred while there was some unseen selling going on in the background - two bob each way.  If it goes down, the punter/s exits the buy side and let the sell side cascade down.  If it goes up - exit the sell side and enjoy the ride.  Remember that HFT Algorithms react in a milli-second, and large institutions act within one second.  No retail trader can hope to compete in these sudden changes in direction.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  A big hit was taken by XMJ (Materials), down -0.9%.  BHP, the largest stock in that sector, was down -2.2% today.

Best sector was Energy, up +1.3%.  It got a push higher from oil price rises overnight - as a result of cuts by OPEC to their output.

Here's the XMJ Chart:

XMJ finished the day below the Short-Term Line (3-DEMA) but remains above the 8DEMA (dashed line).  A finish below that would be short-term bearish.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO finished up today +0.63%.  

The index rose strongly until about 11.30, then slowly declined until about 3.15 p.m.  A sluggish counter-trend rally then lifted the Index a little into the close.  The sell-off was probably due to nervousness about the pending interest rate announcement.  (See below.)

XJO on the daily chart is now at an obvious horizontal resistance level.  Given the intra-day selling we saw today, we may see a pull-back here.  Any dip will likely be bought.

Nearly all sectors were up today except Materials which was up >7% last week so it was probably due for some weakness.

Despite today's fall, XMJ remains in a strong up-trend and is still ahead of the Short-term Line (3-DEMA) and the important 8-DEMA (dashed line).  

Fun and games tomorrow when the Reserve Bank meets and announces its interest rate decision.  No clear consensus exists amongst the pundits about the possible out-come.  Up? Down? No Change?  Take your pick.  Better still wait and see how the market reacts tomorrow after 2.30 p.m.

    2/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 31/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of March finished with a flurry.  After being solidly down for three weeks, the final week of the month brought a rally.  XJO finished -1.11% for the month, but the long lower wick on this month's candle shows the extent of the rally in the past week.

The index finished above the 8-Month EMA.  Supertrend remains bullish and Hull MA13 remains bullish.  

  

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is on a "buy" signal from Dec. 22 and DZ RSI is on a "buy" signals from Nov. 22.  (These signals are advisory only, and can give false signals.)

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week above its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), and has bounced off support at the 6900 level (round figures).  

The last three candles are in a bullish configuration:  big down week, doji, big up week.

This week, the chart finished marginally above the 8-Week EMA but remains below the Supertrend and Hull MA13 remains bearish.  So, the market is not out of the woods yet.

DZ Stochastic still hasn't given a weekly "buy" signal.  DZ RSI has given a "buy" signal this week, that follows its "sell" signal back in early February.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO is up every day of the week.  It has finished above the 200-DMA and 8-DEMA. Supertrend is bullish and Hull MA13 is bullish.

Now for a cautionary note.  DZ Stochastic and DZ RSI are both in over-bought conditions.  A down-turn below the upper zones would be a short-term "sell" signal.  

Monthly and Daily Charts are in sync (bullish).  Weekly Chart is still a little hesitant with DZ Stochastic still not showing a "buy" signal, but DZ RSI is bullish.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

All eleven sectors (plus Gold Miners) were positive this week.  This week's rally was broad based.  

Composite Bonds (a safe haven) saw it lose a little ground, down -0.39%.

Best sector, by far, was XMJ (Materials) up a massive +7.01%.  XXJ (Financials), the largest sector in the market, was up strongly, +2.49%.  The two weakest sectors (relatively) were XHJ (Health) +1.08% and XPJ (Property) +1.02%.  

Sector Momentum.

The above chart shows Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's for eleven sectors plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XMJ, XEJ, XHJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

This is a picture of a very strong market with only one sector showing bearish momentum - Property.

All other sectors, plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are either in a bullish trend or a bullish counter trend rally.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It has remained below its 10-Day MA since 13 February.  On Friday, it had its first up day since 9 Feb.

Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , it's best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

A momentum chart for NewHighs-NewLows provides a more bullish picture:

This chart shows that the difference between New Highs and New Lows has been narrow since 21 March. The 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-DMA on 22 March - which provides a "buy"signal.  

X-Overs of the 5DMA of the 21DMA have provided good medium term "buy" and "sell" signals.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 28%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 29%, This Week 40%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 50%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week, it is now well into bullish territory.

Conclusion.

 

This week, the ASX was up breaking a series of seven down weeks in a row.  This week's rise was emphatic and suggests a phase shift in the market from bearish to bullish.  

Stay safe.