Finspiration Australia.

 4/4/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Reserve Bank Interest Rate Day - A Fizzer?

XJO finished higher today - up just +0.18%.

Interest Rate Day often produces some sharp movements in the market - but not today.  After the "No Change" announcement, XJO did move higher but not much, up 14 points or +0.19%.  That's not a lot compared to what it can do on IRD.

Notice how the XJO moved up in the five minutes before the interest rate announcement.  Somebody (or somebodies) seems to have pre-empted the IR announcement.  I suspect it occurred while there was some unseen selling going on in the background - two bob each way.  If it goes down, the punter/s exits the buy side and let the sell side cascade down.  If it goes up - exit the sell side and enjoy the ride.  Remember that HFT Algorithms react in a milli-second, and large institutions act within one second.  No retail trader can hope to compete in these sudden changes in direction.

Nine out of eleven sectors were up today.  A big hit was taken by XMJ (Materials), down -0.9%.  BHP, the largest stock in that sector, was down -2.2% today.

Best sector was Energy, up +1.3%.  It got a push higher from oil price rises overnight - as a result of cuts by OPEC to their output.

Here's the XMJ Chart:

XMJ finished the day below the Short-Term Line (3-DEMA) but remains above the 8DEMA (dashed line).  A finish below that would be short-term bearish.

Inspiration Australia.

4/4/23. Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report. 

Overnight in the U.S.:  Dow Up, Nasdaq down.  Oil up.

Dow Jones +0.96%.  SP500 +0.37%.  Nasdaq -0.27%.  Small Caps +0.05%.  Banks -0.55%.

SP500.

SP500 remains bullish but somewhat extended to the upside.  Dips will probably be bought.

Stay with the trend.

Nasdaq.

Nasdaq had a small pull-back last night at a major resistance level.  MACD is showing a big negative divergence from the chart.  Expect some downside to the Nasdaq in the near term.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.64%.  Energy +3.24%.  Base Metals -0.89%.  Agriculture +0.1%.  Gold +0.72%.

After ten minutes of trading this morning, XJO is is flat +0.07%.

Bitcoin (USD)

A wide double top may be forming in BTCUSD.  

Indicators (lower panels) are all heading down.  

The short-term line is headed down.  The Crypto finished last night below the 8-Day EMA.

All that suggests more downside if the current horizontal support breaks.  Take care.

Finspiration Australia.

 3/4/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO finished up today +0.63%.  

The index rose strongly until about 11.30, then slowly declined until about 3.15 p.m.  A sluggish counter-trend rally then lifted the Index a little into the close.  The sell-off was probably due to nervousness about the pending interest rate announcement.  (See below.)

XJO on the daily chart is now at an obvious horizontal resistance level.  Given the intra-day selling we saw today, we may see a pull-back here.  Any dip will likely be bought.

Nearly all sectors were up today except Materials which was up >7% last week so it was probably due for some weakness.

Despite today's fall, XMJ remains in a strong up-trend and is still ahead of the Short-term Line (3-DEMA) and the important 8-DEMA (dashed line).  

Fun and games tomorrow when the Reserve Bank meets and announces its interest rate decision.  No clear consensus exists amongst the pundits about the possible out-come.  Up? Down? No Change?  Take your pick.  Better still wait and see how the market reacts tomorrow after 2.30 p.m.

    2/4/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 31/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

The month of March finished with a flurry.  After being solidly down for three weeks, the final week of the month brought a rally.  XJO finished -1.11% for the month, but the long lower wick on this month's candle shows the extent of the rally in the past week.

The index finished above the 8-Month EMA.  Supertrend remains bullish and Hull MA13 remains bullish.  

  

Dynamic Zone Stochastic is on a "buy" signal from Dec. 22 and DZ RSI is on a "buy" signals from Nov. 22.  (These signals are advisory only, and can give false signals.)

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week above its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), and has bounced off support at the 6900 level (round figures).  

The last three candles are in a bullish configuration:  big down week, doji, big up week.

This week, the chart finished marginally above the 8-Week EMA but remains below the Supertrend and Hull MA13 remains bearish.  So, the market is not out of the woods yet.

DZ Stochastic still hasn't given a weekly "buy" signal.  DZ RSI has given a "buy" signal this week, that follows its "sell" signal back in early February.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO is up every day of the week.  It has finished above the 200-DMA and 8-DEMA. Supertrend is bullish and Hull MA13 is bullish.

Now for a cautionary note.  DZ Stochastic and DZ RSI are both in over-bought conditions.  A down-turn below the upper zones would be a short-term "sell" signal.  

Monthly and Daily Charts are in sync (bullish).  Weekly Chart is still a little hesitant with DZ Stochastic still not showing a "buy" signal, but DZ RSI is bullish.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

All eleven sectors (plus Gold Miners) were positive this week.  This week's rally was broad based.  

Composite Bonds (a safe haven) saw it lose a little ground, down -0.39%.

Best sector, by far, was XMJ (Materials) up a massive +7.01%.  XXJ (Financials), the largest sector in the market, was up strongly, +2.49%.  The two weakest sectors (relatively) were XHJ (Health) +1.08% and XPJ (Property) +1.02%.  

Sector Momentum.

The above chart shows Monthly, Weekly and Daily RSI's for eleven sectors plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds.

All three columns sloping up - bullish trend.  XDJ, XIJ, XTJ, XSJ, XNJ, XGD, IAF.

All three columns sloping down - bearish trend.  XPJ

Down then up - counter trend bullish rally.  XXJ, XMJ, XEJ, XHJ, XUJ.

Up then down - counter trend bearish rally.  No sectors.

This is a picture of a very strong market with only one sector showing bearish momentum - Property.

All other sectors, plus Gold Miners and Composite Bonds (IAF) are either in a bullish trend or a bullish counter trend rally.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It has remained below its 10-Day MA since 13 February.  On Friday, it had its first up day since 9 Feb.

Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , it's best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

A momentum chart for NewHighs-NewLows provides a more bullish picture:

This chart shows that the difference between New Highs and New Lows has been narrow since 21 March. The 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-DMA on 22 March - which provides a "buy"signal.  

X-Overs of the 5DMA of the 21DMA have provided good medium term "buy" and "sell" signals.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 28%, This Week 77%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 29%, This Week 40%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 44%, This Week 50%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week, it is now well into bullish territory.

Conclusion.

 

This week, the ASX was up breaking a series of seven down weeks in a row.  This week's rise was emphatic and suggests a phase shift in the market from bearish to bullish.  

Stay safe.

  1/4/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

XJO up 0.78% yesterday.

The oz market is in a strong up-trend - but not as strong as the U.S.

MACD has turned positive with RSI above 50.  That should mean further upside.  Any pull-backs are likely to be bought.

U.S. stocks up Friday night.   

Dow Jones +1.26%.  SP500 +1.44%.  Nasdaq +1.74%.  Small Caps1.94%.  Banks +0.88%.

SP500.

I have t wonder how much of last night's rise was due to funds doing "window-dressing" to improve their performance bonuses?

Whatever.  SP500 has clearly formed an inverse head-n-shoulders pattern.  It is well above the Keltner Channel.  The mid-line of the KC is beginning to rise - bullish.

This is a strong upside trend - buy the dips.

Bullish Percent NYA 

Bullish Percent for the NY Stock Exchange on the Point and Figure Chart has switched from a descending row of Os to an ascending row of X's, i.e., the Index has switched from bearish to bullish.  This is a correction of the previous bear trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.94%.  Energy +1.7%.  Base Metals flat -0.1%.  Agriculture +0.59%.  Gold -0.52%.

Bitcoin.

Last night, Bitcoin +0.83%.  Stay with the up-trend.

Finspiration Australia

 31/3/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

U.S. stocks rise again.   Nasdaq "officially" in bull market.

Dow Jones +0.43%.  SP500 +0.57%.  Nasdaq +0.73%.  Small Caps -0.09%.  Regional Banks -2.03%.

Nasdaq is up 20% from its lows which puts it into bull market territory.  

While the media has been focussing on the "bad news" in the banking industry, technology has been leading the charge into a new bull market.

SP500.

SP500 has now pushed above the Keltner Channel.  It looks like it's "buy the dips" time again.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.73%.  Energy +0.75%.  Base Metals flat 0.00%.  Agriculture +0.94%.  Gold +0.9%.

After nearly 30 minutes of trading this morning, XJO is up +0.7%

Bitcoin.

Last night, Bitcoin fell -0.8%.  During the night session it hit a new 52-week high.  Stay with the up-trend.

Finspiration Australia.

   30/3/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

After Tuesday's lull, the U.S. market sprang to life last night. but Oil fell.

Dow Jones +1%.  SP500 +1.42%.  Nasdaq +1.79%,  Small Caps +0.65%.  Regional Banks continue to consolidate, +1.07%.

All eleven U.S. sectors were up, with Real Estate the best +2.31%.  That suggests that Real Estate has bottomed after a two months' slide.

SP500.

SP500 has broken above its sideways consolidation and sits above the Hull MA13, 20-Day EMA and the 200-Day MA.  Supertrend is bullish.  Stay with the uptrend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.54%.  Energy -1.38%.  Base Metals +0.7%.  Agriculture -0.59%.  Gold -0.5%

ASX Futures are up +0.7%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin up nearly +4% last night.

The trend remains to the upside.  Stay with the trend.