Finspiration Australia.

   28/3/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO had a strong day today.

XJO up +1.04%.  

The Trends:

• Long term trend (200-Day MA) neutral.
• Medium term trend (20-EMA) down.
• Short term trend (Hull MA13) up.

The Index still has a lot of ground to make up to turn the medium term trend to bullish.

Today's candle is bullish and makes a break-out from a rising triangle, which is bullish.  So, in the short-term we're looking OK, just don't get too euphoric yet.

Defensives took a back seat today, while cyclical growth stocks were up solidly.  Energy up +4.5%, Materials up +2.2%, Financials up +1.1%.  Health down -0.9%.

Uncharacteristically, Information Technology -0.6% took a hit - following the American Nasdaq down.

Amongst the large caps, Woodside Energy was the stand-out +5.4%.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO still hasn't favoured stocks over bonds - that confirms the need for caution until the medium term trend turns up.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

In early European trade, stocks are generally up with the Euro STOXX600 up +0.3%.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia

 28/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

Mixed results overnight in the U.S.  Dow out-performs.  Oil surged higher.

Dow Jones +0.6%.  SP500 +0.16%.  Nasdaq -0.47%,  Small Caps +1.02%.  Regional Banks +0.87%.

Eight out of eleven U.S. sectors were up, but the Nasdaq was weighed down by falls in Information Technology -0.85%.  Unlike Australia, IT is a heavy-weight in the U.S. market.

SP500.

SP500 remains mildly bullish finishing above the 20-Day MA and Supertrend.  Hull MA13 remains heading to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +1.87%.  Energy +3.36%.  Base Metals +0.85%.  Agriculture +0.95%.  Gold -0.93%.

Gold lost some of its safe-haven gloss as regional banks rose.

Iron Ore -0.51%.

After nearly 30 minutes of trading, XJO is up nearly 1%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was under some selling pressure last night falling just over -2%.  

BTC still finished above the 8-Day MA and Supertrend.  Hull MA13 has turned down reflecting the selling pressure.

The trend remains to the upside.  Stay with the trend.

  27/3/23.  Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO had a narrow range day and finished flat.

XJO up just +0.1%.  That's the second narrow range day in a row and the second doji candle-stick in a row.  Lots of indecision.

The Index is consolidating at the low end of the down-trend.  Wait.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO continues to favour Bonds.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

Stay Safe

Finspiration Australia.

   26/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 24/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had over three weeks of trading so far in the Month of March.  So far, the month has been poor, with the XJO down -4.18%.  The index remains below the 8-Month EMA - bearish.

This chart gives very slow signals - as they only take relevance at the end of the month.  But currently, the chart is not looking flash hot.

  

Monthly RSI is at 49.74.  50 represents a dividing line between bullish and bearish.  

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO finished the week below its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA), but it held support at the 6900 level (round figures).  That was set in the early days of January this year - so our market has gone nowhere in the ensuing three months.

In the past five days, XJO has fallen -0.57%.   We have now had seven weeks of weekly losses.  This week did show some buying during the week.  (See daily chart below)

Turmoil is largely due to fear about Bank solvency in the U.S. and Europe.

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, the XJO attempted to climb above the 200-Day MA, but retreated on Thursday.  Friday saw plenty of intra-day buying (see long lower wick on Friday's candle) so we may see another attempt at breaking above the 200-Day MA.

XJO remains oversold with an RSI at 35.31.  

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Sectors were evenly split this week between positive and negative sectors.  Five sectors were positive and five sectors negative with one flat, XHJ.  The best performer was Discretionary +1.2%.  But that performance was smashed in the above chart by Gold Miners, +7.79%.  XGD is not a sector but an industry grouping within Materials (XMJ).  It is a good barometer of fear in the market, as Investors often see Gold (and Gold Miners) as a safe haven in times of turmoil.

The big damage this week was done by Financials -1.89%.  That's not a bad result given the turmoil in overseas markets.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It crossed below its 10-Day MA on 13 February.  Until this (blue line) gets back above its 10-Day MA , its best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is well below the zero level.  When Bonds are out-performing stocks its a sign to stay defensive.

The 5-Day MA and 21-Day MA provide a reasonable guide to the broad market.  When the 5-Day MA crosses below the 21-Day MA - stay defensive.  When the 5-Day MA crosses above the 21-Day go to offense.  The 5-Day MA crossed below the 21-Day MA on 9 February - sell signal.

The 5-Day MA crossed above the 21-Day MA on the 9 January - buy signal.

Here's the XJO with the cross-over dates pin-pointed:

The Bond Market is dominated almost exclusively by professionals while the Stock Market has a large proportion of retail investors (amateurs). 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 19%, This Week 28%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 30%, This Week 29%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 50%, This Week 44%.

Stocks above the 10-Day MA showed a solid improvement this week.  That's often indicative of a possible change in trend.

 

Conclusion.

 

The market has been down for seven weeks in a row.  Market news has been dominated by dismal news among banks, small and large in the U.S. and Europe.

Our market is showing some signs of finding a bottom this week, but we need much more evidence before feeling comfortable about the Stock market.

The Stock/Bonds Ratio Chart might provide timely warning of a reversal to the upside.  So far, however, it is still saying, "Stay Defensive".

Stay Safe.

Finspiration Australia.

 25/3/23.  Saturday Finspiration Report.

Yesterday - XJO down marginally after strong intra-day buying.

Last night - U.S. stocks finish positive.

XJO Friday:

XJO down -0.2% yesterday.  The long lower wick on yesterday's candle indicates strong intra-day buying.

The only positive on the chart is the Hull MA13 which is the shortest MA I use.  

XJO remains below the 200-Day MA.  It has been rejected by the 10-Day MA and the first line of the triple Supertrends.  We need to see better than that to enter for a trade.

Overnight in the U.S.  Major indices finish up modestly.  Regional Banks have a big rise.

Dow Jones +0.41%.  SP500 +0.56%.  Nasdaq +0.31%.  Small Caps +1.07%.  Regional Banks +3.03%.  Despite that big rise in Region Banks, the chart remains mired at the low end of its big down-trend.

SP500.

SP500 is doing better than Australia's XJO.  It finished last night above its 200-Day MA and above all three of the triple Supertrends.  

Hull MA13 is positive and the Index finished above the 10-Day MA.

The index remains locked between the 50-Day MA and the 200-Day MA.  A move above the 50-Day MA would be bullish.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.48%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals flat -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.53%.  Gold -1.13%.

The upside movements in the American Indices suggest that the Australian market will be up on Monday.

Bitcoin.

Overnight, Bitcoin was down -2.41%.  The Hull MA13 has turned down which is a short-term negative signal.

Longer term, BTC remains bullish - above the 10-Day MA and triple Supertrends.

Finspiration Australia.

 24/3/23.  Friday Morning Finspiration Report.

In the U.S. overnight, choppy trading - modest rise in the Dow Jones.

Dow Jones +0.23%.  SP500 +0.3%.  Nasdaq +1.01%.  Small Caps -0.86%.  Regional Banks down heavily again -2.78%.

Breadth was weak with only two of eleven sectors on the positive side, Telecommunications and Information Technology.

SP500

SP500 had a wide range day ending with a doji candle - lots of indecision.

SP500 failed for the third time at the 50-Day MA - will fourth time be the charm?

The resistance level is at about the 50% retracement level from the early February high - that gives the resistance level added importance.

The Index remains above the 8-Day EMA and the three Supertrend lines.  

Three European central banks (U.K., Norway and Swiss) raised interest rates which didn't help stock market sentiment.

Commodities.

Commodities Index -0.26%.  Energy -0.71%.  Base Metals +1.63%.  Agriculture -0.56%.  Gold remains strong, +1.25%.

After ninety minutes of trading, XJO is down -0.5%, but now gently trending up.

Bitcoin.

Last night, BTC was up +3.41%.  The trend remains up.

Finspiration Australia.

 23/3/23.  Thursday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO down again today after two days to the upside.

XJO has failed at the first levels of resistance:  -1SD below the 20-Day MA, the 8-Day EMA and the first Supertrend line.  

That doesn't look good to me.

The Ratio Chart of Composite Bonds to XJO continues to favour Bonds.

Until the 5-Day MA gets above the 21-Day MA (at the very least) its best to maintain a defensive stance.

Stay Safe