Finspiration Australia.

23/3/23.  Finspiration Thursday Bitcoin Report.

 Bitcoin fell -2.73% last night but remains above key support levels.  The trend remains up.  Stay with the trend.

Finspiration Australia.

 23/3/23.  Thursday Morning Finspiration Report.

Fed raises interest rates +0.25%.  Stocks tank.

Dow Jones -1.63%.  SP500 -1.65%.  Nasdaq -1.6%.  Small Caps -2.59%.  Confidence in regional Banks continues to collapse, -5.69%.

SP500.

SP500 shows a big bearish engulfing candle  taking the Index well down below nearby supports.  Bearish.

Commodities

Commodities Index +0.26%.  Energy +0.2%.  Base Metals +0.36%.  Agriculture -0.35%.  Gold +1.7%

Finspiration Australia.

 22/3/23.  Wednesday Evening Finspiration Report.

Today, Australian market followed U.S. lead from last night to the upside.

XJO up +0.87% today.

Today was the second day in a row to the upside.  That's the first time for almost three weeks that we've had back-to-back upside days.

That is promising, but looking at the chart it is still below the 20-DMA (centre line of the Bollinger Bands), below triple Supertrend lines and the 8-Day EMA.  It also sits below -1SD from the BB centre line.  Formidable stuff.

Tonight in the U.S., the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision.  That may be market moving.

Above is the ratio chart for Bonds/ASX.  It had a nice move to the upside today but still a long way from the 5-Day MA moving above the 21-Day MA.

Finspiration Australia.

 21/3/23.  Tuesday Evening Finspiration Report

XJO up strongly today but lost momentum in afternoon trading, +0.82%.

It remains at the low end of a long down-trend.

The relative performance of Stocks V Bonds remains in a steep down-trend.

I've put two Moving Averages on the chart, a 5-Day MA and a 21-Day MA.  Until the 5DMA gets back above the 21DMA - its best to be very cautious about the Ozzie Market.

Inspiration Australia.

21/3/23.  Tuesday Morning Finspiration Report.

A better night on International Markets.

 Dow Jones +1.2%.  SP500 +0.89%.  Nasdaq +0.39%.  Small Caps +1.33%.  Banks +0.76%.

Positive Divergences on MACD Histograms for the three major indices:  Dow Jones, SP500, Nasdaq.

SP500.

SP500 remains in a downtrend as shown by the Andrew's Pitchfork.  This remains a "sell the rallies" market.

Commodities.

Commodities Index +0.4%.  Energy +0.8%.  Base Metals +0.4%.  Agriculture flat -0.05%.  Gold flat +0.04%

Iron Ore +0.85%.  BHP in New York +2.01%.  Rio +2.77%.  That's looking good for our big miners today, but much more needs to be done to reverse their current down-trends.

Bitcoin.

BTCUSD was up strongly again last night, +4.69%.  This is a strong up-trend.  Trends continue - until they don't.

Finspiration Australia.

23/3/23.   Monday Evening Finspiration Report.

XJO continued its steep descent today, down -1.38%.

The only positive sector today was Telecommunications +0.4%.  Worst was Energy. -3% followed by Property -2.5%.  

Not much point in putting money into this market until Stocks begin to outpoint  Bonds on a relative basis.  Currently Bonds are beating stocks by a big margin.

Finspiration Australia

  19/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 8/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've had nearly three weeks of trading so far in the Month of March.  This week saw a marked change in the March Monthly candle.  Last week it was sitting on the 8-Month EMA, XJO has now fallen well below the 8-Month EMA.  

This chart gives very slow signals - as they only take relevance at the end of the month.  But currently, the chart is not looking flash hot.

  

Monthly RSI is at 50.26.  50 represents a dividing line between bullish and bearish.  Its just hanging on the bullish side.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

This week saw the XJO make a marked change in its characteristics.  Last week, XJO remained above its 50-Week MA (equiv. to 250-Day MA).  This week XJO closed below that key support/resistance level.

In the past five days, XJO fallen -2.1%.   We have now had six weeks of weekly losses.  This week did show some buying during the week.  (See daily chart below)

XJO began to fall five weeks ago at a major resistance level.  

XJO Renko Weekly Chart

Renko Charts ignore time and only add a new "block" when a major change in Index price has occurred.

Renko Charts have an advantage in that they clearly show support/resistance levels.  

Using big round numbers, major overhead resistance existed at 7500, where XJO failed back in early February, this year.  It also failed at that level in April 22, Jan. 22 and November 21.  So there's plenty of history at that level.

XJO is now sitting on the first major level of support, very round figures 7000.  XJO closed on Friday at 6994.8

Given the turmoil in international markets, that support seems likely to fail, with the next major level of support at 6625.  About 375 points lower or -5.4% lower.

XJO Daily Chart.

XJO Daily Chart.

In the daily chart, we can see the importance of the 200-Day MA for the XJO.  Definite failure here will see the XJO go much lower.

On Thursday, the XJO closed below the 200-Day MA.  Friday saw a half-hearted effort to get back above the 200-DMA but failed, and printed an inside day.  If XJO opens on the downside on Monday (likely) we'll probably see much lower levels.

XJO is oversold with an RSI at 31.6.  A small positive divergence exists on the CCI, so that gives some chance of an upside move.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Health (XHJ) was the only positive sector this week, and it only just scraped over the line, +0.08%.

Worst performers were Energy -5.07% and Information Technology -3.23%.

Until we see Financials (XXJ -2.28%) and Materials (XMJ -2.58%) start to recover, there's not much hope for our market.

The Banking Sector in the U.S. was down -5.25% on Friday night.  That gives you some idea of how much Banks are on the nose in America.  Our banking sector is quite a different animal from the American one - but it won't be treated much differently in the current turmoil.

I couldn't believe what the European Central Bank did this week.  Despite the fact that falling bond prices were principally the cause behind the current loss in bank stocks, the ECB raised interest rates +0.5%.  Well - I guess that shows their determination to fight inflation - but at what cost?  The European banking sector fell 7%, the day the ECB raised rates by +0.5%.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL Cumulative started falling on 9 Feb.  It crossed below its 10-Day MA on 13 February.  Until this gets back above its 10-Day MA (blue line), its best for long-term investors to stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is below the zero level.  

The chart crossed below the zero line on 17 February - confirming the bearish nature of the NH-HL Cumulative.

Until this chart gets above zero - stay defensive.

This is a reasonable picture of bullish and bearish status of the market.  It's probably a good idea for medium term investors to remain bearish on stocks while this chart remains below zero. 

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 25%, This Week 19%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 47%, This Week 30%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 56%, This Week 50%.

Last time Stocks > 10DMA were below 20% (currently 19%) was in September last year, but it remained below 20% for three weeks before a bullish rally began.  Maybe two or three more weeks of gritting the teeth and hanging on?

 

Conclusion.

 

More banks in the U.S. and Europe have come under pressure since my last weekly report and the failure of SVB in America.  Until we get clear sings that the turmoil is over, it's best to stay defensive.

Stay Safe.