Finspiration Australia.

6/3/23.  Finspiration Monday Evening Report. 

ASX today showed no fear about tomorrow's RBA Meeting.  XJO up +0.62%.  The market was held back today by falls in recent high fliers, Energy down -1.14%, Materials -0.25% and Utilities -0.47%.  Utilities often trails along behind Energy.

Best performing sectors today were Discretionary +1.95%,  Information Technology +1.77%, Property +1.7% and Financials +1.19.

Chart for XJO:

XJO finished above the 8-Day EMA today but now faces resistance from Supertrend (7/1.5) and the 20-Day MA - middle of the Bollinger Bands.  XJO might consolidate now for a day or two.

Chart for XXJ:

Today XXJ clawed its way back above the 200-Day MA.  It still has to rise above the 8-Day EMA and Supertrend.  But today's action coming off an extremely oversold RSI, suggests we'll see more upside.

Let's hope the RBA doesn't spring any surprises tomorrow.

Finspiration Australia.

     5/3/23.  Weekend Report - The Week That Was.  Week Ended 3/3/23.

XJO Monthly Chart.

We've only had three days in March with the XJO up +0.35%.  In February, XJO was down -2.92%

So far, the Index is above the 8-MEMA, Hull MA13, 50-MMA, 200MMA, Supertrend (7/1.5).  Not much damage done yet.

  

Monthly RSI is at 54.31.  50 represents the dividing line between bullish and bearish.

XJO Weekly Chart.

                                            

XJO remains in an up-trend, with higher highs and higher lows.  In the past five days, XJO fallen -0.32%.  The previous week it was down -0.54%.  So down side over the past two weeks has been modest.

This week saw good buying during the week to erase most of the early losses.

XJO began to fall four weeks ago at a major resistance level.  

8-Week EMA and Hull MA13 turned turned down, which is bearish. Supertrend continues to provide support this week.  Events overnight on Friday in America could see a break to the upside.   

Weekly RSI is at 54.2 - bullish but falling.  

XJO Daily Chart.

This week, XJO was behind the eight-ball with a big fall on Monday.  It has been up three of the past four days.

My shortest term moving average is the Hull MA13.  It turned down on the 9 Feb.  It has now turned up, so the down-trend could be ending.

I'd like to see the index finish above the 8-Day EMA (grey line) before feeling confident that the short-term trend has turned up.  That seems likely to occur on Monday, given events in the U.S. on Friday night.

Weekly Changes in Sectors.

Breadth was poor this week, with only two sectors pushing to the upside - but those two sectors did extremely well, Energy +5.19% and Materials +3.98%.

Financials, the biggest sector in the ASX, was down heavily -2.88%.  It has been doing very poorly in recent times, but could be coming to the end of its pull-back.

On the Thursday, XXJ fell heavily taking its RSI down to 26.6.  We rarely see the RSI for XXJ get below 30 before we get some sort of a rebound.  Watch XXJ on Monday for some good news for our market.

Gold Miners.

XGD (Gold Miners) was one of the stand-outs this week, up +6.42% after being down five weeks in a row.  The bullish engulfing candle for this week suggests more upside for the Gold Miners.  It has also bounced off support of the 50-Week MA - another bullish sign.

NewHighs-NewLows.

This is a long-term indicator, but a good guide for long-term investors.

NH-NL pulled to the upside this week, with the 3-Day MA rising sharply.  The 3-Day MA needs to get back above the 20-Day MA for long-term investors to feel comfortable about their investments.  Until that happens, stay defensive.

Stocks v Bonds.  Relative performance.

On a relative basis, Bonds are currently outperforming Stocks, i.e., the chart is below the zero level.

This is a reasonable picture of bullish and bearish status of the market.  It's probably a good idea for medium term investors to remain bearish on stocks while this chart remains below zero.  If you're a bit cheeky, you might go long if the chart rises above the 10-Day MA.

% of Stocks above key moving averages.

1.  % of stocks above 10-Day Moving Average: Last Week 44%, This Week 40%.  

2.  % of stocks above 50-Day Moving Average, Last Week 56%, This Week 55%.  

3.  % of stocks above 200-Day Moving Average, Last Week 65%, This Week 61%.

The longer term measures remain above the 50% mark.  So the market is not in bad shape.  Short-term I'd like to see Stocks above 10-DMA move back above 50%.

SP500.

I mentioned, early in this report, the good results in America on Friday.  Here's the SP500 chart.

The past two sessions on the SP500 have seen strong upside moves.    Friday saw a rise of +1.61%.  That triggered a number of bullish indicators.  

Thursday saw the SP500 bounce strongly off the 200-Day MA - that's a bullish indicator.  Friday saw the index cross above the 8-Day EMA, and the Supertrend changed from blue to yellow - bullish.  Hull MA13 has turned up - bullish.

This looks like the start of a good short-term upside rally.

 

Conclusion.

 

A lot of jig-saw pieces are falling into place for our market in the coming week.  SP500 has turned short-term bullish and we should follow suit on Monday.

Finspiration Australia.

 4/3/23.  Finspiration Saturday Morning Report.

XJO up Friday.  Overnight in the U.S., Stocks lift for second day.

XJO rose +0.39%

XJO has been up three out of the past four days.  Advance has been turgid.  The index hasn't been able to break above the 8-DEMA.  Perhaps that will change after events overnight in the U.S.

U.S. Indices.

Dow Jones +1.17%.  SP500 +1.61%.  Nasdaq +1.97%.  Small Caps +1.14%.  Banks +1.92%.

SP500.

Friday saw follow-through buying after Thursday's bullish candle.  The chart is now above the 8-DEMA - that provides a move to a short-term upside trend.

The chart is now into the "neutral zone" where we might see some consolidation.  While the index remains above the 8-DEMA - stay with the trend.  

Commodities Index up, Base Metals flat.

Commodities Index +1.58%.  Energy +2.35%.  Base Metals -0.05%.  Agriculture +1.59%.  Gold +1.07%.

In New York, BHP was up +1.29%, Rio up +1.95%.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down -4.99% overnight.  That was a break to the downside of the consolidation zone.  There might be a bit more downside before another move up.

The 50-Day MA has crossed above the 200-Day MA which would complete a "Golden Cross", a bullish event.

Finspiration Australia.

  3/3/23.  Finspiration Friday Morning Report.

Overnight in the U.S., Stocks lift after soothing words from Fed. hawk.

Dow Jones +1.05%.  SP500 +0.76%.  Nasdaq +0.73%.  Small Caps +0.28%.  Banks -1.78%.

The three candle pattern on the Dow Jones is a bullish pattern

SP500.

Last night's candle is a bullish engulfing candle, coming off the 200-Day MA adds importance to last night's rise.  That's promising but I'd like to see confirmation by the SP500 crossing above the 8-Day EMA.

Commodities missed the boat last night.

Commodities Index -0.37%.  Energy +0.18%.  Base Metals -2.3%.  Agriculture -0.59%.  Gold -0.06%.

Iron Ore +0.2%.  That rise in the IO price should blunt the impact on our big miners by the fall in Base Metals.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin down -0.8% overnight.  The crypto is in a sideways consolidation now in the "neutral" zone and oscillating around the 20-Day MA which is basically flat.

The 50-Day MA has crossed above the 200-Day MA which would complete a "Golden Cross", a bullish event.

Finspiration Australia.

2/3/23.  Finspiration Evening Report. 

How Flat is Flat?  

XJO up just +0.05% today after being well up at middday.

For the second day in a row, XJO has finished more or less flat.

Positive sectors were again Energy +1.4% and Materials +2.9%.  All other nine sectors were flat with Financials worst -1.9%.  Financials are close to a level where they will see some buying coming into the sector.

Here's MVB (ETF for the Banks):

RSI is now at 26.95 - that's extremely oversold.

Coles and Woolworths both went ex-dividend today - that pushed the Staples down -1.3%.

In early trading in Europe, STOXX600 is down -0.47%.  Dow Futures flat -0.06%, but SP500 Futures down -0.66%.

Finspiration Australia.

 2/3/23.  Finspiration Tuesday Morning Report.

Overnight in the U.S., Dow Jones flat, SP500 and Nasdaq down.  Commodities strong.

Dow Jones +0.02%.  SP500 -0.47%.  Nasdaq -0.66%.  Small Caps +0.21%.  Banks -0.29%.

Dow Jones shows plenty of intra-day buying to finish flat after being well down during the course of the session

SP500.

SP500 is oscillating around the 50-Day MA but above the 200-Day MA.  Last Friday looks like a "spring" - a precursor to a trend change to the upside, but we still need to see a decisive move to the up-side to confirm.

It remains below the 8-Day EMA and the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands.  We need to see the SP500 in the top half of the Bollies before feeling comfortable.

It's not unusual after a "Golden Cross" for the market to come back and test the important MAs (50 & 200).  At this stage the test seems to have been successful.

Commodities.  Mixed Results.

Commodities Index +1.73%.  Energy +1.64%.  Base Metals +2.92%.  Agriculture +0.64%.  Gold +0.58%.

After 20 minutes of trading this morning XJO is up modestly, +0.17% on the back of stronger Energy and Mining stocks.  The rest of the market is doing poorly.

Bitcoin.

Bitcoin up +1.85% overnight.  The crypto is in a sideways consolidation now in the "neutral" zone and oscillating around the 20-Day MA which is basically flat.

The 50-Day MA has crossed above the 200-Day MA which would complete a "Golden Cross", a bullish event.

Finspiration Australia.

 1/3/23.  Finspiration Wednesday Night Report.

XJO was flat today.

The chart candles show two "inside babies".  Two small candles well within the range of Monday's wide range candle.  That's usually a bullish sign but needs confirmation of a big upside day.

Stochastic (bottom panel) has been in the oversold section below 20 for over three weeks.  That's plenty of time to elapse before a move to the upside.

Despite the flat finish there was plenty of action today.  The market was well down by 11.00 a.m. but then the GDP figures came out - which were disappointing.  Bad news was good news - so the market rebounded - hoping for some easing of interest rate rises.

Energy was up +1.6% today, but that was eclipsed by Materials, up +2.3%.

They were the only two sectors positive today.  Telecoms was worst -2.3%.  Financials didn't fare well, down -1%.

Let's see if we get a good upside move tomorrow.